Welcome back to our expert article series. Here, the PlayerProfiler staff provides their best picks to take on BetOpenly. BetOpenly is a spot where you can maximize value by avoiding the juice Vegas wants you to pay. In Week 5, our picks went 3-1. This included a sweep on Trevor’s player props. This week, we are back with best bets from Ahaan S. Rungta and Trevor Tipton, with odds that you can only get betting peer-to-peer on BetOpenly.
If you would like an introduction to using BetOpenly and want to know why it is more profitable than using a traditional sportsbook, check out our opening article of the season.
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On BetOpenly, you have the option to take or create your own bets on game lines (such as outright wins or spreads). You are also able to combine player props through the Instant DFS/Props menu. In today’s article, we have a few picks from each category. It is important to tail these picks with discipline. Stick to your normal wagers, don’t chase wins or losses, and play your peers instead of the juice-hungry sportsbooks.
Ahaan’s Week 6 Picks
Seattle Seahawks to Win (+133)
Over the last few years, the perceived point value held in hold-field advantage has slightly diminished. Over the league-wide sample of the last decade or so, it is safe to say that home field advantage is worth at most three points in a vacuum. Given this, it looks like we are getting to buy the Seahawks as the lesser team against the Bengals, which reads as a smash spot.
Despite the Bengals tearing it up offensively last week to break out hearts, there isn’t much evidence that Cincinnati is all the way back. In the Week 5 win, the Bengals posted a -0.005 EPA/play. This is just around league-average. On the year, Burrow ranks No. 28 in adjusted EPA/play and No. 28 in completion percentage over expectation. Additionally, the Bengals rank No. 20 or worse in pass block win rate, run block win rate, pass rush win rate, and run stop win rate. There isn’t much they do at a high level. Therefore, they should be easy pickings for a Seahawks roster that is much improved this season and ranks top-10 in all four aforementioned metrics.
Seattle is coming off a bye and now quarterback Geno Smith is without an injury designation. Seattle is 3-1 against the spread this season and 1-0 with a rest advantage. Geno Smith ranks around league-average in adjusted EPA/play, top-12 in adjusted yards per attempt and completion percentage in a clean pocket, and No. 3 in passer rating against man coverage. He will get to pick on a Bengals defense that ranks among the league-leaders in man coverage rate. Additionally, head coach Pete Carroll should have no hesitancy running the football down the throats of the Bengals. After all, the offensive backfield is led by running back Kenneth Walker III, who also leads the NFL in evaded tackles. Take the better team to win as an underdog.
New England Patriots Spread +3 (-108)
This wager is about as ugly as it gets on face value. Nobody wants to bite on the Patriots right now. They have looked about as bad as humanly possible over the last couple of weeks under head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots have arguably the worst pass-catching room in the NFL, the worst offensive line in the NFL, and the worst special teams coaching in the NFL. On the other hand, the home team Raiders are coming off a gritty primetime win at home and do not have to travel for this Week 6 contest. That is why it should be extremely telling that New England is only a field goal underdog in this matchup.
Las Vegas Injuries
This is because they are going to compete in this get-right spot and perhaps get back in the winning column by taking this game outright. Additionally, Las Vegas has significant injuries on offense. Their two best offensive weapons, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, are both questionable. Even if they play, they could have some serious trouble against a Patriots defense that still ranks above average in many metrics despite the losses of cornerback Christian Conzalez and Matthew Judon.
New England ranks No. 12 in run stop win rate and can easily force the ball out of the hands of running back Josh Jacobs and into the hands of Jimmy Garoppolo. This is bad news for the Raiders. Garoppolo ranks No. 24 in adjusted yards per attempt, No. 21 in true completion percentage, and No. 26 in passer rating against man coverage. The Patriots play man coverage at the No. 9-highest rate in the NFL.
New England Offense
On offense, New England is primed for a rare decent game. Quarterback Mac Jones has been put in a position to fail, but his individual play has not been the main issue. He ranks No. 2 in the NFL in sack probability avoided over expectation (just behind Patrick Mahomes) and No. 5 in catchable pass rate. This means he is finding ways to make plays even when scrambling. However, this could also be his first game in a while where he isn’t harassed in the pocket for hours.
The Raiders rank No. 26 in pass rush win rate and No. 27 in EPA/play allowed. This is a spot for Jones to display that he has something left in the tank and that he still is a starter in this league. New England’s team total is juiced to the “over” at 19.5 despite staying under that line in each of the last four games.
Expect them to wake up in Week 6 and keep themselves somewhat afloat in the AFC East with a bounce back game ahead of their tough Week 7 matchup against the Buffalo Bills. This number is either getting juiced to near -120 or moving to a 2.5-point spread on sportsbooks. However, on BetOpenly, you can snag the push potential of the key number (3.0) and get this at a -108 price.
Trevor’s Week 6 Picks
Zay Flowers (BAL) Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Baltimore gets a dream matchup this week for Todd Monken’s offense against the Titans. Flowers had ten targets again last week against Pittsburgh, and he has the best matchup of the week for the Ravens. Flowers is leading the Ravens with a 30.4%-percent of the Air Yards (350) and a 27.3-percent Target Rate. The Titans run zone coverage 69.3-percent of the time, while a majority is Cover 3, followed by Cover 1. It will open up areas this week for Flowers and should allow for a big game by the rookie wide receiver.
One of the most impressive stats we look for is first read options on an offense. Flowers currently has a team-leading 32, while Andrews is second at only 19. The Titans have had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season. They are No. 27 in DVOA, and are allowing the No. 5 worst Completion percentage at 71.8-percent. With their depleted and injury-ridden running backs, Baltimore will continue to throw against this Titans secondary while taking advantage of a top-10 pass-blocking matchup.
We will continue to target Flowers and his receiving yards until the books catch up and set his line correctly in the 60’s. We model his actual line for this yardage at 79.44 for this matchup which would put us at -235, giving us a 30.98-percent advantage on this receiving prop. This line will close around 61 yards come game time in Europe this weekend, so run, do not walk, to take advantage of this opportunity.
Tyreek Hill (MIA) Over 6.5 Receptions (+120)
Very few times in the next few years will we have the opportunity to bet on Hill for plus money on his receptions. I would wager a large amount of money that does not close at plus money for the week. Hill has the best matchup of the week in the NFL against Donte Jackson and the downright dreadful Carolina Panthers defense. Tagovailoa will have all the time he needs to let Hill run his routes and get open with a top-five pass-blocking matchup in Week 6.
Hill has seen 48 targets this season with 36 receptions. Tyreek has an eye-catching 12.6 ADOT and ranks top four in the NFL with 605 Air Yards. He is No. 3 in the NFL in Air Yards Share while leading the NFL with 130.2 Yards a game. The value in this prop is the plus money for Hill. We model this line closer to even money.
Miami will be able to run the ball at will vs the Panthers this week, opening up opportunities for Hill. Carolina runs zone coverage at a staggering 81.8-percent. Hill has a 37-percent targets per route run vs. Zone, which is also one of the best in the NFL. Please take advantage of one of the few plus money opportunities we will have on Hill this season.