Fantasy football is all about taking advantage of the market. Finding the best ADP values and most overpriced players is vital to any fantasy draft. Drafting in Best Ball is no different. Today, I’m taking a look at six different players and their ADPs in Underdog Best Ball Drafts to decide if we should be buying or selling them at their current prices.
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Underdog Best Ball ADP Analysis: Buy or Sell
TE Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders — ADP: TE1 | 15.7
Brock Bowers entered the NFL as one of, if not the best, tight end prospects we’ve ever seen. His rookie season proved that prospect evaluation correct in a big way. Bowers not only set the rookie tight end reception record but also the rookie reception record for any position. Bowers also averaged 15.5 PPR PPG, which was third at his position, barely behind George Kittle and Trey McBride. It’s clear that Bowers is already one of the top players in fantasy; the only real question is whether he is worth the cost.
Brock Bowers’ Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
Even going in the second round, Brock Bowers is still undervalued. He represents a massive advantage at tight end as he is one of the few players at the position who can routinely achieve real spike weeks. Bowers went over 20 fantasy points on three occasions in 2024, a rare feat for tight ends. And he did that as a rookie. Think about what he can do in his second year as he becomes even more comfortable in the NFL. Additionally, he received a quarterback upgrade this offseason in Geno Smith. Bowers is a flag plant player in 2025. Draft him every time you have the option in the second round.
RB Breece Hall, New York Jets — ADP: RB13 | 37.8
Few players spark as much debate as Breece Hall. The rollercoaster nature of his career has left some managers scorned, while others still believe in his talent. His fantastic rookie season was cut short due to a torn ACL. He then returned the following year and became a league winner despite the terrible offense around him. Last year, in his third season, Hall regressed and saw his workload reduced slightly. Heading into 2025, there’s a new coaching staff in place in New York. The Jets also added Justin Fields to be their quarterback and drafted Armand Membou seventh overall to help shore up their offensive line.
Breece Hall’s Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
There’s some risk involved with Breece Hall. His pass-catching upside is reduced with Justin Fields as his quarterback, and we have to wonder what his total workload will be. But, at his current cost, the risk is definitely worth it. Hall is easily the best and most dynamic running back on the Jets’ roster. Fields’ presence as one of the best running quarterbacks in the league will help open up lanes for Hall, increasing his rushing efficiency. And while running quarterbacks like Fields tend not to throw to their running backs as much, the Jets have a dearth of pass catchers outside of Garrett Wilson. It would be foolish not to feature Hall in the passing game. I’m buying Hall for 2025 at this RB13 price tag.
WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers — ADP: WR38 | 66.8
Deebo Samuel has long been one of the most dynamic wide receivers in football. Few others have been as proficient as him as a receiver and runner. He’s incredible after the catch and can work downfield more than he’s given credit for. Samuel is even capable of lining up like a traditional running back. But, two out of the last three years, and especially last year, Samuel hasn’t been himself. In 2024, Samuel averaged just 10.2 PPR PPG, the worst of his career. Samuel’s physical play style may now be catching up to him. This offseason, Samuel was traded to the Commanders for a fifth-round pick. Can he revive his career?
Deebo Samuel’s Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
2024 may have been the beginning of the end for Deebo Samuel. It wasn’t just the worst season of his career, he was straight up not good. Among wide receivers in 2024, Samuel was 55th in yards per route run, 46th in yards per target, and 51st in yards per team pass attempt. Samuel’s usage throughout the season was inconsistent and lessened as it went on. It’s clear the 49ers were starting to phase him out of their plans, which was punctuated by his being traded away. Even at a reduced cost in the sixth round, Samuel is one of my least favorite ADPs on the board. I’m full on fading him, and I don’t see a scenario where he’ll be such a big value that I’d regret fading him. Sell.
QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos — ADP: QB10 | 99.8
When he entered the league, there were mixed opinions about Bo Nix and his potential in the NFL. Nix played for extra years in college, with his most productive seasons coming during that time. Additionally, his college production was scrutinized due to its dink and dunk nature. When he was drafted 12th overall by the Broncos, many saw it as a reach. But Nix proved all his naysayers wrong. Nix averaged 19.4 PPG as a rookie. Surprisingly to many, Nix added a lot as a runner with 430 yards rushing, which was eighth among quarterbacks. This offseason, the Broncos added Evan Engram at tight end and Pat Bryant at wide receiver to bolster Nix’s weapons.
Bo Nix’s Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
With his impressive rookie year while getting to play in Sean Payton’s offense, it’s easy to project Bo Nix to repeat his production, if not more, in 2025. The Broncos also have a top offensive line, making it so Nix can execute the offense routinely. His price is a bit aggressive, but he’s worth the cost. Nix’s rushing production helps secure his floor week to week, and he provides a high ceiling whenever he has a big passing day. Nix isn’t a flag plant player, but I want to make sure I’m above the market in exposure. Nix is a Best Ball buy.
RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys — ADP: RB38 | 120.8
Javonte Williams had a promising start to his career before a devastating knee injury at the beginning of his sophomore campaign changed his trajectory. Since returning from that injury, Williams has looked like a shell of his former self. Over the last two seasons, Williams has maxed out at 3.7 yards per carry and has been 54th and 59th in True Yards per Carry. Over that time, Williams has had 9.3 and 11.2 PPR PPG based almost purely on the volume he received thanks to a lack of competition. During free agency, Williams signed with the Cowboys on a 1 year/$3 million contract, which is a small amount even for a running back.
Javonte Williams’ Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
It’s hard to have a lot of confidence in Javonte Williams. This offseason, the Cowboys also added Miles Sanders via free agency and Jaydon Blue in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. Neither of them is that impressive, but for Williams, they’re threats. It’s easy to just say, “Someone has to get the touches.” But time and time again, we’ve seen inefficient players get replaced even when it seems like there’s no one to replace them. Drafting Williams is putting a lot of faith in projected touches that aren’t as safe as they seem. That’s too risky for me. I’m selling Williams’ ADP.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars — ADP: QB19 | 134.1
Since entering the league, Trevor Lawrence has had a lot of ups and downs. More often than not, though, it’s been down. Lawrence has all the physical tools you could ask for, but has struggled to have top play outside of small periods. He hasn’t always been in the best situations. At some point, he deserves some of the blame, though. 2025 brings a new sense of optimism for Lawrence. Liam Coen is in as head coach, and the Jaguars added the unicorn that is Travis Hunter and drafted a dynamic running back in Bhayshul Tuten. If Lawrence is ever going to finally fully break out, it’s going to be this year.
Trevor Lawrence’s Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile
There are enough doubters that Trevor Lawrence still has an attractive price. Liam Coen having just one year of offensive coordinator experience before getting the head coaching job for the Jaguars may be keeping people from fully buying into the potential upside he brings to the offense. While with Tampa Bay, Coen showed a talent for getting the most out of his players and putting them in the best position to win. The expectation should be that he’ll do the same for Lawrence and the Jaguars. Finding the quarterbacks on underpriced breakout offenses can provide massive value, so I want to make sure I’m above the market with Lawrence.
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