The Commanders’ win over the Giants kicked off the second half of the season. We’re at that desperate part of the season when every start/sit decision matters as the race for the fantasy football playoffs heats up. In Week 10, the Lions face the Patriots in Germany, Kirk Cousins reunites with Justin Jefferson, the Cowboys host the 49ers and the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft gets a baptism of fire against the reigning Super Bowl champions. Sadly, we have perhaps the most tragic Monday Night Football game of all time as the Chargers look to notch their first win of the season against a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team.
The premise of this weekly column is simple: which players do sportsbooks and experts rank the most differently? One player at every position.
Before we dive into Week 10, let’s check in with Week 9’s results.
I highlighted these players:
Tyler Shough: Sportsbooks win
Chuba Hubbard: Sportsbooks win
Keenan Allen: Experts win
Sam LaPorta: Sportsbooks win
Standings:
Sportsbooks: 4
Experts: 3
Tie: 2
The sportsbooks have gone ahead for the first time this season and have won two weeks in a row. Let’s see how the experts respond:
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Sportsbook Rankings vs Expert Consensus Rankings
Jordan Love | QB, Green Bay Packers
Sportsbook Ranks: QB8
Expert Rank: QB13
Cast your mind back to Week 1. We all had blind optimism that the Los Angeles Chargers would get on track. There was excitement around the Los Angeles Rams “Super Team” spearheaded by Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. We had no idea how important Konata Mumpfield would be. And the Minnesota Vikings defense didn’t look so scary. Ahh, how naive we used to be.
Through nine weeks, Jordan Love is the only quarterback to finish as a QB1 against the much-vaunted Vikings defense. In Week 1, Love threw for 387 yards (a season high against the Vikings) and two touchdowns. Christian Watson logged 147 receiving yards and two touchdowns, while Matthew Golden had 95 receiving yards. The Packers offense is humming, and a lot of that is because of Love. While Love ranks second in passing yards per game (290.9), the Packers have no run game. They rank 31st in EPA/rush (-0.24) and 31st in success rate (34.7%). The Packers have had to build their offense almost exclusively on Jordan Love hitting dingers. And, boy, can he hit dingers.
Love leads the league in completions of 20-plus yards (40) and 40-plus yards (12). In Week 1, this explosive-play hunting worked reasonably well to combat the Vikings blitzm which they do at a league high 75%.
The sportsbooks are backing Jordan Love to repeat his early season success against the Vikings in Week 10. They have Love’s passing-yard total at 250.5 yards, which ranks seventh among all quarterbacks. The experts are a little more apprehensive about his red-hot form continuing. The experts rank him as the QB13 on the week, which is a reflection of Minnesota allowing a league-low 8.4 fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Jonathan Taylor | RB, Indianapolis Colts
Sportsbook Ranks: RB6
Expert Rank: RB11
After the conclusion of their Week 9 defeat at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, Jonathan Taylor delivered what sounded like an emotional and heartfelt goodbye to Indianapolis in expectation of being traded before the deadline. The whole farcical episode played out against the backdrop of a George Costanza-esque resignation, with Taylor effectively quitting the Colts before discovering that he had to go to work with the Colts on Wednesday morning.
As we’ve seen time and time again, the correct way to rebuild is to sell all your parts and keep your star veteran running back. Oh, no, wait. That’s the opposite of what you should do. The Colts’ recent transactions have made Taylor one of the trickier players to rank for the remainder of the season. One thing is for sure: this Colts offense is going nowhere fast. Daniel Jones ranks 33rd of 36 quarterbacks with a minimum 100 dropbacks in EPA/play (-0.20). The experts have factored the team’s offensive struggles and recent fire sale into Taylor’s Week 10 rank. They have him ranked as the RB11, while the books have him ranked as the RB6 on the week.
On the season, the Dolphins have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. That has improved over the last five weeks, however. In that span, the Dolphins are giving up the 10th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and even limited Jahmyr Gibbs to his least productive game of the season. It is clear, then, that the sportsbooks are betting on Jonathan Taylor‘s volume increasing to the sort of level we saw through the first seven weeks of the season.
Parker Washington | WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Sportsbook Ranks: WR17
Expert Rank: WR10
Over the last three seasons, some of the fantasy environments have been in Cincinnati, Detroit and Dallas. Sure, those teams have awesome offensive talent, and that goes a long way. But one of the key reasons they have been so good for fantasy is that their defenses stink, and their offenses have had to put up big numbers to win games.
That leads us nicely to the Jaguars. Jacksonville has been awesome for a while. Since their bye week last season, they have averaged 30.9 points per game over 18 regular-season contests. They have the biggest point differential in the league (+108). They’ve been blowing out teams to such an extent that they don’t have to get out of second gear in the fourth quarter. And that was before they bolstered their defense with additions of Jordan Davis and Jessie Bates, although neither will play in Week 10.
Trevor Lawrence is averaging just 4.75 pass attempts in the fourth quarter — that’s a league low — and the Jaguars rank 28th in plays per game (58.8). In games where the Jaguars are favored by over 8.5 points, Parker Washington averages 12 fantasy points per game (three games). On the season, he has a mere five receptions in the fourth quarter and is averaging just 12.8 receiving yards in the second half of games. All that is to say the Jaguars have been too good on both sides of the ball for fantasy football. The sportsbooks expect that to continue in Week 10. The Jaguars are 10.5-point favorites against the lowly Tennessee Titans. That certainly informs the sportsbooks’ conservative WR17 ranking.
The experts love this matchup for Washington. They have him ranked as a low-end WR1. The Titans are giving up a league-high 40.7 fantasy points per game to wide receivers. They also allow a league-high 194.9 receiving yards to wide receivers. Oh, and the Titans just traded away their best safety, Amani Hooker.
Darren Waller | TE, Carolina Panthers
Sportsbook Ranks: TE22
Expert Rank: TE14
Last week against the Broncos, we rolled back the years to pre-rapping prime Darren Waller. The veteran tight end exploded for 23 fantasy points, which was his second-highest score in the last five seasons. His 10 targets were the most he has had in a single game since Week 5 in 2023.
The sportsbooks are pouring cold water over a potential Darren Waller renaissance. Prior to Week 9, Waller had recorded just six targets in the previous three games to go with just two receptions. Of all tight ends, Waller ranks 18th in receiving-yard totals and has a 2.5 receptions line. The experts have Waller ranked as a borderline TE1 in Week 10. The Saints are giving up 16.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends, which ranks as the seventh-highest among all NFL teams.
Elliott Troop is a fantasy football analyst for PlayerProfiler.
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