Week 5’s Monday Night game between the Raiders and Chiefs boasts a week-high 51.5 game total. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 7.5 point home favorites while hosting the road-dog Raiders. Both teams have a pass-first identity so the first look should focus on the quarterbacks and their respective pass-catchers. Without further ado, it’s time to break down this game for our MNF Showdown Week 5!
Raiders vs Chiefs Odds:
Chiefs -7.5 (-104)
Over/Under 51.5 (-110)
Moneyline Chiefs -330/Raiders +265
The path of least resistance will surely be through the air for the Raiders. The Chiefs’ offensive success has subsequently put their defense on the field more. This has forced opposing offenses to pass at a league-high 72-percent rate. Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs’ defense has also allowed a league-worst 10 Passing Touchdowns. In a game that projects to be high-scoring, Derek Carr sets up as a quality QB2.
Josh Jacobs torched the Broncos in Week 4 while finishing the week as the overall RB1. Jacob’s 71-percent Snap Share has been elite even besting more notable studs such as Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. The Raiders are expected to be playing from behind here, so his Week 4 20-percent Target Share (season-high) is reassuring. His 27 Routes in Week 4 were also a season-high watermark for the bell cow back. Expect the Raiders to rely on Jacobs more through the air this week.
Adams and Uncertainty
Carr’s old college buddy Davante Adams is a priority here. The downgrade at quarterback for Adams looks largely over-stated as his 47 Targets (No. 2 behind only Cooper Kupp) would suggest. Carr will continue to look Adams’ way to keep pace with the Chiefs. Adams is a locked-in WR1 and a stone-cold lock in any one-game DFS contests.
Outside of Adams, the outlook is less clear for the other Raiders’ pass-catchers. The return of Hunter Renfrow really muddies the water for Mack Hollins. The Dolphins/Eagles cast-away had been thrust into a near-every-down role following Renfrow missing time with a concussion. Hollins’s outlook becomes a wait-and-see fade given Renfrow’s return. Renfrow himself is flex-worthy after logging touchdowns against the Chiefs in both meetings last season. Though, like Hollins, I’d prefer to wait and see how the Targets shake out. Darren Waller has taken a backseat since Adams’ arrival. His middling 16-percent Target Share simply isn’t enough to separate him from the pack at the position.
There’s a lot to like about Patrick Mahomes here. We know the Chiefs’ defense is set up for shootouts, but so are the Raiders. The Raiders rank No. 2 in Sack Rate (3-percent) while allowing the No. 4 most Passing Touchdowns (7). With extra time in the pocket and the expected game environment, Mahomes is a locked-in top-5 QB.
The Chiefs’ running backs are a stay away outside of including Clyde Edwards-Helaire in a MME (Max Multi-Entry) player pool for one-game DFS slates. The committee approach deployed by Andy Reid has capped the ceiling for any Chiefs running back. This backfield is a fade especially in PPR leagues.
Kelce and Everyone Else
Similar to the teams’ running back situation, the Chiefs’ wide receiver-by-committee approach has yet to produce a reliable receiver for fantasy gamers. Juju Smith-Schuster’s 19-percent Target Share leads the group although he’s yet to find pay-dirt. Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Mecole Hardman are in play as one-game DFS tournament punts because of the high game total but outside of that, I’d be cautious about starting them.
After Tyreek Hill‘s departure, Travis Kelce has taken on an even bigger role for the Chiefs. Kelce’s early-season accolades include No. 3 most Targets (35), No. 2 highest Target Share (25-percent), and No. 1 most Receiving Touchdowns (3) (among qualified tight ends). Kelce is an absolute lock and a priority in one-game DFS contests. Kelce has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games.
Travis Kelce ranked among TE this season:
1st in REC
1st in YDS
1st in TD (tied)
TE1 every single year. pic.twitter.com/x1vD1DHXfc
— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 3, 2022