Because of the advanced metrics on PlayerProfiler, we were able to predict bounce-back performances from the Week 10 Busts. Jimmy Garoppolo, Drew Brees and Darren Waller all rebounded. Now, with the advanced stats and metrics available for Week 11, which busts should we fade and which should we trust? Will Leonard Fournette ever score another touchdown?
Deshaun Watson (4.0 points, QB28)
In what was supposed to be a battle of MVP candidates, the Baltimore Ravens demolished Deshaun Watson. He managed 169 scoreless passing yards, while also adding an interception and a fumble.
Compounding his poor play is an ankle injury and a short week. Thankfully, the Texans listed him as a full participant in Monday’s practice-free day.
The Ravens game was by far and away his worst performance of the season, but he’s put up at least 11 points in all other games. Watson’s +11.22 (No. 5 among qualified quarterbacks) Supporting Cast efficiency rating, 55 (No. 4) carries, 1,540 (No. 7) Air Yards, 17 (No. 4) Money Throws and +23.5 Production Premium keep him as a top-five option each week.
Tom Brady (8.5 points, QB23)
From Weeks 1-6, Tom Brady put up at least 20 points in each game with the exception of Week 4’s matchup against Buffalo. Since then, Brady’s put up weekly point totals of 12 (No. 19), 18.4 (No 11), 13.4 (No. 20) and 8.5 (No. 23) points.
Check out Tom Brady on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
What’s worse is that Brady has failed to put up top numbers with massive attempt totals. He ranks third in attempts (402) and first in red zone attempts (72).
His middling metrics display him as a week-to-week streamer at quarterback:
- True Passer Rating (90.2) (No. 17)
- Adjusted Yards-Per-Attempt (6.7) (No. 17)
- Accuracy Rating (7.2) (No. 18)
- Fantasy Points Per Dropback (0.4) (No 17)
Amari Cooper (6.8 points, WR55)
Against Darius Slay, Amari Cooper was already a reluctant start. Even though he received eight targets, he turned them into just three receptions for 38 yards.
Meanwhile, Michael Gallup garnered 13 targets and blew up with nine receptions for 148 yards. Additionally, Cooper only played 62.9-percent of offensive snaps because he is “still fighting through” his knee injury.
If his injury and Gallup’s emergence weren’t already bad enough, Cooper next faces Stephon Gilmore and his +58.3 (No. 3) Coverage Rating. Those alone should cause us to view him as a top-24, not top-12, wide receiver in Week 12.
Sammy Watkins (4.6 points, WR69)
Even with Tyreek Hill exiting the game, Sammy Watkins still couldn’t produce. How does a former top-four pick, making $16 million dollars a year, fail to put up numbers with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback?
Though his 68 (No. 27) targets and 15.6-percent (No. 22) Hog Rate are good, other metrics display his complete inefficiency:
- True Catch Rate (79.2-percent) (No. 68)
- Production Premium (-4.6) (No. 54)
- Target Premium (-17.2-percent) (No. 79)
Ignoring his 46.8-point explosion in Week 1, Watkins averages 8.1 targets, 4.7 receptions, 48.5 receiving yards and zero touchdowns
Because of his touchdown drought, targets and Snap Share, Watkins can see positive touchdown regression. However, because of his inefficiencies, Mahomes and Reid may also choose to target more capable receivers.
It makes Watkins what he’s been the past four seasons: a truther-candidate, boom-or-bust, WR3/WR4.
Leonard Fournette (12.7 points, RB21)
It’s mind-bending that Leonard Fournette still only has one touchdown. On the season, he has:
- 182 carries
- 854 rushing yards
- 58 targets
- 47 receptions
- 329 receiving yards
He’s compiled 240 opportunities for nearly 1,200 yards, but he’s only scored once. He’s the Julio Jones of running backs.
Other than touchdowns though, Fournette is putting together a stellar season. He’s top-five in Snap Share, Opportunity Share, Weighted Opportunities, red zone touches, receptions and Yards Created.
Regression must hit. Plz.
Brian Hill (4.8 points, RB53)
Everybody’s favorite free-square running back of Week 11, Brian Hill was a big time bust. Even though he earned a 65.5-percent Snap Share and 18 opportunities (15 carries, three targets), he turned it into a measly 38 scoreless yards.
To make matters worse, Hill’s first 11 carries went for a total of 11 yards. Additionally, Qadree Ollison vultured a two-yard score.
Hill faces off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers top rush defense in Week 12, but if he can keep a high snap/Opportunity Share, he’s still FLEX-worthy.
Remember, 18 opportunities is difficult to come by. Hill’s 79th-percentile College Dominator Rating, 73rd-percentile Speed Score and 21.3-percent Juke Rate should keep him him as the top back in the Falcons backfield.
Gerald Everett (3.0 points, TE32)
With Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods out, it was the perfect situation for Gerald Everett. He ran 29 routes and earned 8 targets in Week 10, but last week’s 28.8-percent Snap Share, eight routes run and single target were all disappointing against the Bears. In three of the past five weeks, Everett’s seen four or fewer targets.
It’s best to avoid him in Week 12. Especially against the Baltimore Ravens.
O.J. Howard (0 points)
After finally “breaking out” with seven targets, four receptions, 47 yards and a touchdown in Week 10, O.J. Howard‘s production plummeted. He failed to secure his only target and even popped it up for an interception.
As much as we wish Howard’s performance against Arizona was a sign of things to come, it appears to be a sign of Arizona’s pass defense. Cameron Brate, after Howard’s interception-inducing-drop, earned 10 targets.
Howard is a lost cause at this point. He’s completely droppable, like his 15.4-percent (No. 1) Drop Rate.