PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Dan Williamson looks at 10 Late-Round RB Values in FFPC Drafts.
Drafting in June means drafting with incomplete information. That prospect terrifies some drafters, but we should be intrigued and excited to draft in this environment. When NFL news and knowledge are both nearly complete and widely disseminated, it’s much harder to find winning edges. We should WANT to draft in murky waters because we can thus easily create massive value.
But how can we find those edges? We want to follow the advice from legendary investor Warren Buffett. “Be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Translating from investor-speak to drafting in June, we’d say “look for situations where uncertainty is depressing prices and look for situations where sky-high confidence in a player might be unwarranted”. This is where the edges lie and how we create surplus value as we draft.
There’s no better place to find and apply these edges than in the FFPC Best Ball Tournament, where you can turn your $125 entry into $300,000 by winning the tournament. With a total prize pool of nearly $1.5 million, there’s also plenty of opportunity to bag a smaller profit. If you prefer a smaller entry fee, the FFPC Superflex Best Ball tournament might be a better choice. At just $35 to enter, you can still bring home a $100,000 top prize. Both formats offer 20 rounds of drafting fun, with no annoying kickers or defenses.
Let’s start by diving into the RB values available in the last half of these (and most other) drafts:
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars (RB38)
Travis Etienne’s Advanced Metrics
2023’s RB3 overall has a well-rounded skillset and is still only 26 years old, but you can get him at a massive discount from his 2024 ADP in the early 3rd round. Let’s consider why that’s happened and whether we feel that massive ADP slide is warranted. After a solid, if unspectacular, start last year, Etienne pulled his hamstring early in week 6 and missed 2 games. When he came back, he was never able to return to form, struggling his way to mostly single-digit PPR scores. Then the Jaguars brought in a new GM and head coach who drafted the intriguing Bhayshul Tuten in the 4th round. Tank Bigsby also still lurks on the depth chart. Now that we’ve figured out why Etienne’s ADP has cratered, we can ask ourselves if it’s warranted.
He’s still a former 1st-round draft pick with a 3-down skill set. Do we believe that a simple hamstring pull has torpedoed his career before he turned 26 years old? Or is it possible that he simply tried to return too soon, and his productivity suffered as a result? We also know he’s in the last year of his contract, which means he will be motivated to play well this year. As a lame duck RB, the Jaguars may maximize his final year by “running him into the ground”. His chief competition, Tuten, has a history of fumbling, and Etienne is still easily the best receiver in the RB room. It’s also possible that the Jaguars might trade Etienne and get a draft pick for him rather than just letting him walk in free agency.
The only way this value is justified is if Etienne is truly washed, or if the RB room becomes a messy 3-way committee. It seems highly unlikely Etienne has permanently lost his juice, so the 3-way committee looks to be the worst-case scenario. We know RBs get injured frequently, so a 3-way split usually won’t last all season. We also know NFL coaches despise fumbles, so there’s another way out of a 3-way committee. Finally, it’s quite possible (and maybe even probable) that Etienne is simply the best RB on the roster.
Javonte Williams (RB39) and Jaydon Blue, Dallas Cowboys (RB40)
Javonte Williams’s Advanced Metrics
Here’s a spot to be greedy where others are fearful. If a lead RB emerges in Dallas, he’s going to be worth a lot more than the ADP implies for these two. The lack of information is the main impediment to the ADP of both Javonte Williams and Jaydon Blue. If we knew who the front-runner is, that player would easily be going several rounds sooner. Thus, we can speculate at a low cost with a reasonable chance of creating significant value on our roster. If you have a favorite between the two, then reflect that in your rostership percentages.
Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers (RB43)
Isaac Guerendo’s Advanced Metrics
If Christian McCaffrey stays healthy for an entire season, he’s going to be a league winner, despite a 1st-round ADP. But what if he doesn’t? I’m putting my chips on Isaac Guerendo to be the player to own in this backfield. He’s big, fast, bursty, and agile. If there’s anything better than being the caddy to a heavily-used, aging RB, it’s having the ability to score from anywhere on the field in a single play. Guerendo is that guy. Sure, he’s had his own injury issues in the past, but at this price, that’s baked in already.
J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos (RB51)
J.K.. Dobbins’s Advanced Metrics
Uncertainty is always our friend when it comes to ADP. Finally healthy for most of 2024, J.K. Dobbins still has plenty of juice left despite a laundry list of injuries. Dobbins finished as the RB24 despite missing four games. In points per game, he was the RB18.
Dobbins has just signed with the Broncos. We can only assume that Sean Payton is not ready to simply hand a bellcow role to RJ Harvey. Expect Dobbins to quickly surpass Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estimé on the depth chart. He could easily begin the season as the primary 3rd-down option, allowing Harvey to ease into a full-time role. Expect Dobbins’ ADP to bounce up to the 11th round, at minimum.
Braelon Allen (RB53) and Isaiah Davis, New York Jets (RB80)
Braelon Allen’s Advanced Metrics
New Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has already promised that this will be a timeshare backfield. Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis are the cheapest way to buy into the uncertainty. Nobody wants to buy into a messy 3-way committee, of course. But at these prices, it’s worth buying in hopes that at least one player falls from contention. It could be injury, ineffectiveness, or a trade. Whatever it is would immediately make one or both of these players a steal at their current cost. Given the dearth of quality talent in the Jets’ receiver corps, it’s a given that the team will rely heavily on its RBs to move the offense.
Will Shipley, Philadelphia Eagles (RB60)
Will Shipley’s Advanced Metrics
Saquon Barkley just notched 436 rushes last year. That’s the 7th-most rushing attempts in a season (including postseason) in the history of the NFL. Will Shipley is his clear backup. Nothing’s guaranteed, but if Saquon breaks down, Shipley will step into a very productive role on a quality offense.
Brashard Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (RB63)
Brashard Smith’s Advanced Metrics
Isaiah Pacheco will almost certainly look better than he looked after his return from injury last year. But we can’t just write that in ink, either. If he falters, the dusty Kareem Hunt and the infinitely fragile Elijah Mitchell are all that stand between Brashard Smith and a lot of meaningful snaps.
Even if Pacheco is just fine, it’s easy to see Smith pushing his way into the Jerick McKinnon role. He’s another backup with the juice to take any touch to the end zone from anywhere on the field. Sooner or later, such players generally find their way to getting at least a few touches, even if they never ascend to the lead role.
Devin Neal, New Orleans Saints (RB65)
Devin Neal’s Advanced Metrics
Short of injury, Alvin Kamara is unlikely to find himself in a timeshare of any meaningful consequence. That said, Kamara’s efficiency has quietly slipped over the past couple of years, and this will be his age-30 season. Devin Neal is a near-clone of Kamara physically and was a similar player to Kamara in college from a metrics standpoint. Kellen Moore‘s offenses liberally use RBs in the passing game, so the lead RB role shouldn’t change much from previous years. Kendre Miller has nearly run out of chances, so Neal could easily find his way to the lead role.
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