Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 2

by Edward DeLauter · Value Plays

With many exciting storylines unfolding around the NFL in Week 1, it is understandable to overlook perhaps the most exciting storyline of them all: NEW DATA. With new data, we can create new educated assumptions as to how to attack the Sunday DFS slate.

The Air Yards metric is among the most predictive that we have. Below is a list of ten value plays for Week 2 based on Week 1 Air Yards results. Each player is listed with his associated price on DraftKings and FanDuel. Additionally, each player is listed with their Air Yards, Air Yards Share, and Unrealized Air Yards, with their rankings among qualified wide receivers in each metric. The players are discussed in order of their Air Yards Value Rating (editors note: more on this in the next edition of the series). Further, in an effort to mine as much value as possible, the players highlighted are generally priced below $5,500 on DraftKings, unless a player is projected to be a contrarian play.

DeSean Jackson – DK: $5,100 FD: $5,500

Air Yards: 214 (No. 1)
Air Yards Share: 41.2-percent (No. 15)
Unrealized Air Yards: 175 (No. 1)
Air Yards Value Rating: 100

DeSean Jackson was peppered downfield with targets from Carson Wentz in Week 1, amassing 214 Air Yards, the most on the week. Unfortunately, Weintz was sacked eight times and seldom had time in the pocket to allow for downfield routes to fully develop. With right tackle Lane Johnson expected back in Week 2, look for Wentz to finally hook up with Jackson this week.

Quintez Cephus: DK: $3,800 FD: $4,600

Air Yards: 129 (No. 9)
Air Yards Share: 34.8-percent (No. 27)
Unrealized Air Yards: 96 (No. 4)
Air Yards Value Rating: 68.3

Gazuntite! Kidding aside, the fifth-round rookie saw a surprising ten targets with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup in Week 1. Seeing 24.4-percent of Matthew Stafford’s passes, Quintez Cephus finished No. 9 in the league in Air Yards for Week 1. He also failed to capitalize on the bulk of these targets, finishing with only 7.3 fantasy points.

Quintez Cephus Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

While Cephus’ lack of efficiency may be reflective of his NFL talent, there remains the chance that he was plain unlucky. Priced near the minimum on DraftKings, Cephus is a worthy gamble to bounce back in Week 2. He is a great play for any single bullet entry. YOLO!

Corey Davis: DK: $5,100 FD: $5,500

Air Yards: 95 (No. 25)
Air Yards Share: 41.5-percent (No. 13)
Unrealized Air Yards: 16 (No. 62)
Air Yards Value Rating: 57

The former first round pick was considered an afterthought after A.J. Brown’s breakout late last season. However, Corey Davis gave the few remaining truthers a game to celebrate in Week 1, posting 17.1 fantasy points. Davis led the Titans in targets and Air Yards. With Brown ruled out of Week 2’s tilt with the Jaguars, Davis should continue to monopolize the Air Yards in the Titans offense.

Preston Williams: DK: $4,800 FD: $5,400

Air Yards: 104 (No. 20)
Air Yards Share: 41.40-percent (No. 14)
Unrealized Air Yards: 69 (No. 10)
Air Yards Value Rating: 51.9

Preston Williams took advantage of teammate DeVante Parker’s injury in Week 1, leading the Dolphins in targets. Unfortunately, this did not translate to fantasy points, with Williams finishing as the WR74 on the week.

Despite poor production in Week 1, Williams remains an intriguing target in DFS for Week 2. His 109 Air Yards rank No. 20 in the league and he’s clearly the top receiving option on the Dolphins, seeing a 41.4-percent (No. 14) Air Yards Share.

Parris Campbell: DK: $4,500 FD: $5,300

Air Yards: 108 (No. 19)
Air Yards Share: 37.2-percent (No. 22)
Unrealized Air Yards: 55 (No. 17)
Air Yards Value Rating: 51.6

The second-year wide receiver entered Week 1 as a post-hype sleeper after missing most of his rookie season as a result of variety of injuries. Parris Campbell justified his believers, posting 14 fantasy points.

Check out Parris Campbell on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Setting aside his production, Campbell, from an Air Yards standpoint, was essentially utilized as the 1B to T.Y. Hilton‘s 1A in the Colts receiving game, amassing only one less Air Yard. Priced significantly lower than Hilton, Campbell makes for a great Week 2 value.

Jalen Reagor: DK: $4,100 FD: $5,100

Air Yards: 136 (No. 7)
Air Yards Share: 26.2-percent (No. 39)
Unrealized Air Yards: 84 (No. 6)
Air Yards Value Rating: 50.3

Similar to DeSean Jackson, Carson Wentz also heavily target Jalen Reagor downfield in Week 1. While the first-round rookie wide receiver was able to secure one 55-yard bomb, he did little else in Week 1, leaving 84 Air Yards unrealized.

If Jalen Ramsey attempts to contain Jackson in Week 2, it will leave Reagor as the beneficiary and a player set to explode.

T.Y. Hilton: DK: $6,300 FD: $5,700

Air Yards: 109 (No. 16)
Air Yards Share: 37.6-percent (No. 21)
Unrealized Air Yards: 57 (No. 16)
Air Yards Value Rating: 41.6

The Colts veteran wide receiver disappointed in Week 1, posting only 9.3 fantasy points. However, he remained a focal points of the Colts offense, leading the team in Air Yards. Facing off against a Vikings team that was shredded by the Packers passing attack, T.Y. Hilton will look to turn back the clock himself in Week 2 and capture a top 12 finish. Still highly priced on DraftKings, his value is as a contrarian play.

Darius Slayton: DK: $5,000 FD: $5,300

Air Yards: 104 (No. 20)
Air Yards Share: 40.9-percent (No. 16)
Unrealized Air Yards: 11 (No. 70)
Air Yards Value Rating: 49.2

The sophomore receiver appears to have taken over as the Giants WR1, seeing over 40-percent of the teams Air Yards in Week 1. Darius Slayton capitalized on this opportunity against a stout Steelers defense, posting 28.2 fantasy points. Still priced below teammate Sterling Shepard, Slayton is seeing the opportunity of a top 24 wide receiver.

Jerry Jeudy: DK: $4,900 FD: $5,300

Air Yards: 100 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 34.2-percent (No. 30)
Unrealized Air Yards: 73 (No. 8)
Air Yards Value Rating 40.4

Denver’s first-round pick was pressed into a larger opening night role than anticipated with Courtland Sutton injured and underwhelmed, scoring only 9.6 fantasy points. However, he remained Drew Lock‘s go-to target, leading the Broncos in targets, and in Air Yards.

Jerry Jeudy Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Priced below $5,000 on DraftKings, Jerry Jeudy has the potential to hit if Sutton misses another game and will likely be sparsely rostered due to a perceived tough matchup against the Steelers.

Christian Kirk: DK: $4,300 FD: $5,700

Air Yards: 70 (No. 37)
Air Yards Share: 35.9-percent (No. 24)
Unrealized Air Yards: 73 (No. 8)
Air Yards Value Rating: 33.8

The training camp hype around Christian Kirk this offseason did not translate on the field in Week 1. Kirk underwhelmed, scoring only one fantasy point while seeing five targets. However, he remains an Air Yards value, seeing a 35.9-percent Air Yards Share in Week 1. Not bad, considering he was out-targeted  by top dog DeAndre Hopkins 16 to 5. With no Richard Sherman to worry about this week, look for Kirk to have a better game and to be a value in DFS.

Good luck to all in Week 2 and may all your Air Yards be realized!