Week 3 of the NFL brought us exciting breakout performances from rookie wide receivers. Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins showed why the advanced stats and metrics suggest that the 2020 wide receiver class is fantasy gold. It’s a safe bet that more big games are coming from this class, and their dynasty stocks are trending up. Load up on this talented group where possible. The Week 3 edition of the Dynasty Market Movers is on tap, enjoy!
The Eagles remain winless and Carson Wentz threw another two interceptions. This brings him to six on the season. It’s a given that he will see his highest interception total since his 2016 rookie season. While he improved his fantasy output to 21.5 points (QB11), it was done with 65 yards on the ground and a rushing score. Wentz actually threw for a season-low 225 passing yards versus the Bengals. With upcoming games against the 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens, it may get worse for him before it gets better.
Market riser Diontae Johnson rose 35.06 lifetime value points on PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings last week. Unfortunately, he left Sunday’s game versus the Texans due to injury. He took to Twitter after the game to say he was fine, but was placed in the league’s concussion protocol. Expect him back soon, elevating his dynasty stock.
Darnell Mooney continues to see playing time, recording a season-high 69.7-percent Snap Share in Chicago’s Week 3 contest against Atlanta. In only his third career game, he out-snapped Anthony Miller by 5.2-percent, also equaling him in targets and routes run. Mooney had two receptions on a season-high five targets for 19 yards.
Stock Trending Up – Darrell Henderson
Darrell Henderson’s dynasty stock plummeted for most of the offseason after the Rams used a second-round pick to select Cam Akers. Fantasy managers who acquired Henderson at value have recently benefitted. The first-year production was not there, but Henderson’s prospect profile is solid. He has a 33.9-percent (78th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating and produced 8.9 (98th-percentile) College Yards per Carry at Memphis, an NCAA record. His 4.49 (80th-percentile) speed and 102.4 (71st-percentile) Speed Score are evident when he has the ball in his hands.
Henderson has seen his Snap Share and carries incrementally rise, and he’s capitalized. His 241 total yards over the past two weeks easily eclipses the 184 total yards he produced over nine games in the 2019 season. In 2020, Henderson has averaged 5.3 (No. 9) True Yards Per Carry and 1.37 (No. 27) Yards Created Per Touch.
Check out Darrell Henderson on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Dynasty Rankings and Projections:
The future of the Rams backfield remains somewhat murky. Veteran Malcolm Brown is still involved and Akers will eventually return from injury. Even if Akers is able to shed his day-to-day tag, all indications suggest that Henderson has earned a Week 4 starting role. Whether or not the team returns to a committee approach, Henderson has flashed and shown that he can produce at the pro level. His dynasty stock has risen as a result.
201 rushing yards on 35 attempts.@DarrellH8 is the Rams rushing leader heading into Week 4 ?
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) September 28, 2020
Henderson’s current level of production can be comfortably started in fantasy lineups, but also provides a possible sell-high option. Given his mid-summer value, this is a nice problem to have for those who roster him.
Stock Trending Down – Joe Mixon
After a high degree of offseason optimism, Joe Mixon‘s value has taken a hit early this year. He’s fallen outside the Top 10 on PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings, slotting in as the No. 13 overall player. Mixon has a true bellcow profile and upper-echelon athleticism, but the Bengals insist on capping his ceiling with Giovani Bernard. Great mustache though.
Mixon’s 2020 metrics are both good and bad. He has a 78.2-percent Opportunity Share and 52 carries, both good for No. 6 among qualified RBs through three weeks. The opportunity is there, on the ground at least. Bernard has out-targeted Mixon 15 (No. 9) to 9 (No. 25) over three games. Interestingly, Mixon has run 72 (No. 5) routes to Bernard’s 56 (No. 17) routes run.
On the other hand, Mixon’s productivity to date is outside the top 20, resulting in 9.1 (No. 39) Fantasy Points per Game. He’s yet to reach the endzone this season, and his efficiency metrics are all below his 2019 marks. An opening schedule with minus matchups against the Chargers, Browns, and Eagles have not necessarily been friendly.
History is repeating itself. Another underwhelming start to the season may have his dynasty owners on edge. They don’t want to see their cornerstone bellcow back come off the field, yet Bernard has a 33.2-percent (No. 49) Snap Share and draws targets. In reality, Bernard had a 40.3-percent (No. 45) Snap Share last year and nearly equaled Mixon in targets.
time to set the record straight on joe mixon’s usage and performance in week 3:
*3x snaps over bernard
*2x routes run over bernard
*continues to be super-elusive and generate most yards after contact
— the podfather (@Fantasy_Mansion) September 28, 2020
In 2019, Mixon averaged 14.1 (No. 19) Fantasy Points per Game, finishing at RB15 or better in all but two games in a Week 8 to Week 16 stretch. This dip in his stock value points to a buy-low window on a top tier running back talent.
Market Watchlist – Gabriel Davis
Buffalo Bills fourth-round rookie wide receiver Gabriel Davis has seen the field in each game this season. He had a 42.3-percent Snap Share in Week 1 and finished Week 2 with a 34.5-percent mark. This amounted to three receptions on three targets for 22 yards and a touchdown. While his role was limited over the first two contests, a calf injury to John Brown resulted in increased usage to an 81.5-percent Week 3 Snap Share. Davis stepped into Brown’s downfield role, similar to the one he played in college, and produced 81 yards on four targets and four receptions. On the season, Davis has caught everything thrown his way, evidenced by a 100.0-percent (No. 1) Catch Rate.
gabriel davis filled in for john brown (calf) admirably.
davis ran more routes than cole beasley with more passing yards than stefon diggs.
topped it off by drawing the game-winning bullshit pi call.
— the podfather (@Fantasy_Mansion) September 28, 2020
At 6-2, 216-pounds, Davis provides the Bills offense with a different element at receiver – size. Starters Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Cole Beasley all measure 6-0 or less and weigh in at under 200-pounds. The UCF alumi’s prospect profile is good, with a 34.4-percent (65th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 103.1 (77th-percentile) Speed Score and 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If Brown misses extended time, this may be the last opportunity to acquire Davis at value.