Just three games left this season—the menu of money-makers is slim, and it’s our job to find the value. This is Best Pick ‘Em Player Entries: Conference Championship Edition. Welcome back to my pick ’em series! In this article, I give out my favorite player entries pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper. Last week, we cashed our two-leg Sleeper parlay, thanks to a Saquon Barkley promo and a Dak Prescott first-half cash.
My #NFL #DivisionalRound pick 'em player prop of the week: a first half cash. 🤑
📝 @rotounderworld newsletter play
💰 @SleeperHQ Saquon promo pair
Early access to my Conference Championship pick 'ems leans are now up on https://t.co/ThwUiaGq62: https://t.co/5pU1GOVLlU pic.twitter.com/1NWirODSwH
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) January 27, 2023
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected player picks. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample entry. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen player picks leans by me and some other staff members. Fantasy gamers can do this a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.
Conference Championship Picks
If you are new to player pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our beginner’s guide article. It is here where we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance.
Our first play contains two legs that are connected in the same game by correlation. We will be utilizing an effective strategy: get positively-correlated legs in a game for the same price as independent outcomes. With legs within an entry positively correlated with each other, we’re making fewer bets to hit two legs than if we bet on two separate independent events. The Underdog play this week targets the second game on Sunday, and the Sleeper play features a massive discount and targets a prop in the first game of the weekend.
Pick No. 1 (Underdog): Justin Watson (KC) OVER 8.5 receiving yards
In a game that we discussed on The Juice as a potential shootout where we like the over on the Vegas total, let’s target offense. We are getting a discount on some Chiefs due to the high ankle sprain to Patrick Mahomes, but with no walking boot or limp in play, Mahomes is an official full-go with the season on the line. I trust the most talented quarterback in the league to hit the deep-ball specialist Justin Watson at least once this weekend.
Watson has hit this number in three straight games and in eight of his 16 games with JuJu Smith-Schuster playing this season. Even when Watson isn’t hauling in the receptions, the opportunity has been there since he is a consistent participant in route-running even after the addition of Kadarius Toney. He has recorded a 50-percent route participation or higher in eight of his last nine games and has drawn at least 40 air yards in seven of his last 11 games. Lining up primarily on the outside, he could draw some of the highly-anticipated Eli Apple matchup. Apple someone who has been good in coverage but is clearly capable of giving up a huge passing play.
Eli Apple when he doesn't have to shadow Gabe Davis' two routes all game:pic.twitter.com/puWOZaI5MO https://t.co/TsUZkuXKwB
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) January 26, 2023
For all these reasons, this pick could hit the over in one just catch as early as the first quarter, and it is why I made Justin Watson anytime TD (+1100) my longshot bet of the week on The Writer’s Roundtable.
Pick No. 2 (Underdog): Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) OVER 83.5 receiving yards
It’s a cliché to say “trust your studs” in the playoffs when everything is on the line, but in this case, it’s smart to not overcomplicate matters. Ja’Marr Chase is a certified alpha, ranking No. 6 in the NFL in target rate (29.3-percent) and No. 9 in air yards share (36.6-percent). Since Tee Higgins has returned from his injury, Chase has hit the over on this line in three of his last five games. In his playoff career, Chase has hit the over in four of his six games. The Chiefs’ defense is No. 20 in the NFL in pass DVOA and has consistently allowed opposing outside wide receivers to flame their secondary.
Last six #1 outside WRs vs. #ChiefsKingdom:
⭐️ Zay Jones: 5 receptions – 83 yards
⭐️ Davante Adams: 5 rec – 73 yds
⭐️ Courtland Sutton: 4 rec – 44 yds
⭐️ DK Metcalf: 7 rec – 81 yds
⭐️ Chris Moore: 4 rec – 42 yds pic.twitter.com/z76UvMG7Wi
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) January 27, 2023
Pick No. 3 (Sleeper): Jalen Hurts (PHI) OVER 0.5 completions
Another week, another playoff game where we are blessed with a super-discount.
This time, it is a free Hurts on Jalen Hurts to complete one pass. We will pair this with our favorite Sleeper leg of the week.
Pick No. 4 (Sleeper): Robbie Gould (SF) OVER 1.5 field goals made
This prop is juiced to -135 on sportsbooks, making this one of the most valuable pick ‘em props on the NFL board. Gould has hit this number in seven of his 8 playoff games as a 49er, with no career misses in those contests.
This season, five of the 10 visiting kickers at Philadelphia have attempted at least two field goals thanks to a No. 11-ranked red zone stop rate by the Eagles’ defense. Gould has also made at least two field goals in five of eight games this season when Purdy is the primary quarterback. Could we get a first-half cash again by the 49ers’ elite kicker?
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player pick ‘ems:
- 0.5 unit on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
- 0.5 unit on a play with the 2 Sleeper picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find an edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.