Air Yards DFS Value Index Week 9

by Edward DeLauter · Matchups Start/Sit

This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 9!

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.

Best Values

The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. The list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week, focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500. Then, our focus will shift to the top ten Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.

Paying Up

D.J. Moore – DK: $5,800

Air Yards Value Score: 100

Air Yards: 772 (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers)
Air Yards Share: 43.8-percent (No. 3)
Unrealized Air Yards: 424 (No. 4)

D.J. Moore has graduated to the paying-up section after two consecutive face-melting performances as the Panthers’ primary offensive weapon. He has seen double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks and saw 250 Air Yards last week which included this dope pass from P.J. Walker (see below). Look for Moore to continue this trend against Eli Apple and the Bengals in Week 9. This is likely the last time he is priced below $6,000. Get him in your cash lineup while you can! However, he may be too chalky for tournaments.

Tyreek Hill – DK: $8,500

Air Yards Value Score: 86.52

Air Yards: 1,044 (No. 1)

Air Yards Share: 41.1-percent (No. 5)

Unrealized Air Yards: 378 (No. 12)

Tyreek Hill is now the league leader in Air Yards and makes his first appearance this season on the Value Index. This is in large part due to the past three games in which Hill has seen more than half of his season’s total in Air Yards. Hill has averaged 188 Air Yards during this time. Also, he has seen at least 13 targets per game during this same time frame. At this point, Hill is a priority fixture in lineups in all formats.

Top-10 Value Plays

10) Garrett Wilson – DK: $4,800

Air Yards Value Score: 38.04

Air Yards: 506 (No. 36)
Air Yards Share: 21.1-percent (No. 57)
Unrealized Air Yards: 240 (No. 36)

Garrett Wilson posted 115 receiving yards last week on seven targets and 60 Air Yards. He is the only Jets receiver I would trust in fantasy at this point, which is not saying much considering how poorly Zach Wilson (64.0 True Passer Rating, No. 30) is throwing the football. It is because of Zach Wilson’s ineptitude as a passer that Garrett Wilson is priced at only $4,800 which still makes him a great value-based play.

9) Damiere Byrd  – DK: $3,500

Air Yards Value Score: 39.58

Air Yards: 279 (-)
Air Yards Share: 29.0 percent (-)
Unrealized Air Yards: 208 (No. 45)

Damiere Byrd randomly saw 190 Air Yards last week on six targets. He has also, randomly, posted two back-to-back performances as a top 24 WR in fantasy. Maybe there is nothing random about this, but Byrd’s past performances as well as his outrageous 31.0 ADOT suggests this is not sustainable. Regardless, at only $3,500, he makes for a great value play in all formats.

Damiere Byrd Advanced Stats & Metrics

8) Jakobi Meyers  – DK: $5,400

Air Yards Value Score: 44.34

Air Yards: 438 (No. 46)
Air Yards Share: 31.9-percent (No. 22)
Unrealized Air Yards: 143 (No. 73)

With Mac Jones back as the starter, Jakobi Meyers was fed 12 targets and caught nine balls for 60 yards and a touchdown en route to a 21-point fantasy performance. Meyers is the mainstay of the Patriots with Mac Jones leading it. Play Meyers in cash forever and always.

7) Drake London  – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 45.64

Air Yards: 481 (No. 38)
Air Yards Share: 27.1-percent (No. 32)
Unrealized Air Yards: 259 (No. 28)

Drake London continues to see minimal targets in a low-volume Falcons passing attack. However, he did see 60 Air Yards last week, which is the most he has seen since Week 3. The upside is just not there for London in this offense despite him having all the physical tools to hit that upside as evidenced by his Week 2 performance where he saw 12 targets and finished with 24.6 fantasy points. For now, London remains cash viable and a mere dart throw in tournaments.

6) Christian Kirk  – DK: $5,500

Air Yards Value Score: 46.74

Air Yards: 568 (No. 24)
Air Yards Share: 26.4-percent (No. 40)
Unrealized Air Yards: 256 (No. 29)

After a scorching hot start to the season, in which Christian Kirk averaged over 20 fantasy points per game through the first three games, the Jaguars’ high-priced free-agent acquisition has come back down to earth. Kirk has averaged only nine fantasy points per game since Week 3. However, despite this recent poor production, Kirk remains a staple of the Jaguars’ passing attack. He’s averaging slightly over six targets per game in his last four games and seeing at least seven targets in the past two weeks. Look for Kirk to rebound in Week 9 against an exploitable Raiders secondary.

5) Mack Hollins  – DK: $4,500

Air Yards Value Score: 51.77

Air Yards: 549 (No. 26)
Air Yards Share: 24.8-percent (No. 45)
Unrealized Air Yards: 244 (No. 34)

Mack Hollins saw eight targets and 75 Air Yards in last week’s demoralizing loss to the Saints. He posted 13.4 fantasy points, finishing as the WR 27 on the week, and has now posted two consecutive double-digit fantasy point finishes. Despite this unexpected floor, Hollins is likely a boom-bust cost savings play thanks to a 14.1 ADOT (No. 13), which I’m perhaps a little less hesitant to play in cash lineups compared to two weeks ago.

4) Josh Reynolds  – DK: $4,600

Air Yards Value Score: 54.26

Air Yards: 548 (No. 27)
Air Yards Share: 26.6-percent (No. 37)
Unrealized Air Yards: 279 (No. 23)

Josh Reynolds continues to be an adequate downfield target in the Lions’ offense. He out-targeted Kalif Raymond this past week and only saw two fewer Air Yards. Reynolds is the preferred play over Raymond, but they are both dicey options this week against a stout Packers secondary.

3) Alec Pierce  – DK: $4,400

Air Yards Value Score: 54.54

Air Yards: 484 (No. 37)
Air Yards Share: 28.9-percent (No. 27)
Unrealized Air Yards: 166 (No. 56)

Alec Pierce saw 106 Air Yards in Week 8, which is the most he has seen on a weekly basis all season. Newly installed quarterback Sam Ehlinger is not afraid to throw the ball downfield as he posted four Deep Ball Attempts last week. This is two more than Matt Ryan averaged this season. Pierce will be the primary beneficiary on the Colts if Ehlinger continues to push the ball downfield as he has the highest ADOT (12.7 Average Target Distance, No. 23) on the Colts. Pierce makes for a great value-based tournament dart throw.

Alec Pierce Advanced Stats & Metrics

2) Marvin Jones  – DK: $4,200

Air Yards Value Score: 66.28

Air Yards: 579 (No. 23)
Air Yards Share: 28.1-percent (No. 30)
Unrealized Air Yards: 389 (No. 10)

Marvin Jones posted the dreaded doughnut last week failing to secure any of his three targets. His snap share has also decreased drastically in the past two weeks. Furthermore, Jones has seen at most 60-percent of the Jaguars’ snaps at receiver the past two weeks compared to being on the field roughly 85-percent of the time in games subsequent to this time. He is nothing more than a limited situational deep threat with extreme boom/bust potential.

1) Darnell Mooney – DK: $4,700

Air Yards Value Score: 79.96

Air Yards: 567 (No. 25)
Air Yards Share: 38.7-percent (No. 10)
Unrealized Air Yards: 313 (No. 17)

For the second consecutive week, Darnell Moony is the top Air Yards Value play. He finished last week with 12 fantasy points. Additionally, Mooney secured five receptions for 70 yards. He posted these numbers despite seeing a season-low 28 Air Yards. This is a figure that will likely increase to his season average of 70.9 this week. He remains an intriguing play in all formats heading into a potential barnburner against the Dolphins.

Good luck to everyone in Week 9. May all your Air Yards be realized.