Air Yards DFS Value Index Week 14

by Edward DeLauter · Strategy

This is the Air Yards DFS Value Index for Week 13!

The goal of the Air Yards DFS Value Index is to determine the best “bang for your buck” in daily fantasy. This is accomplished by utilizing a player’s Air Yards and Air Yards Share to create a weighted Air Yards metric. We then compare this metric with each player’s DFS salary to create a Value Score.

Best Values

The best value Air Yards play on the week is always scored with a value of 100. All other players are compared against that player with decreasing value. This list is not a mere recitation of where each player is ranked — a simple machine could do that. The list contextualizes each player’s Value Score to present the top ten Air Yard values in DFS for the week focusing on players priced at or below $5,500 on DraftKings.

We will highlight two wide receivers on the Air Yards Value Index priced above $5,500. Then, our focus will shift to the top ten Air Yards value plays priced at $5,500 or below on DraftKings.

Paying Up

Amari Cooper – DK: $6,200

Air Yards Value Score: 100

Air Yards: 1,395 (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers)|
Air Yards Share: 40.5-percent (No. 3)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 705 (No. 3)|

Amari Cooper disappointed last week despite the highly anticipated return of Deshaun Watson. He posted only eight fantasy points on nine targets. However, he led the Browns with 96 Air Yards.  He is clearly Watson’s primary pass catcher in this offense.  Look for Amari to bounce back this week against the Bengals. He can be rostered confidently in all formats.

Stefon Diggs – DK: $8,300

Air Yards Value Score: 68.31

Air Yards: 1,423 (No. 3)|
Air Yards Share: 36.3-percent (No. 13)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 614 (No. 5)|

Stefon Diggs scored 14.3 fantasy points the last time the Bills faced the Jets’ secondary. This is roughly 8.3 fantasy points below his season average. Regardless, he still saw 178 Air Yards which is well above his season average of 118.6 Air Yards per game. Despite a rough matchup against Sauce Gardner, and a price tag of $8,300, Diggs remains a value play that could see deflated ownership based on the matchup.

Top-10 Value Plays

10) Adam Thielen  – DK: $4,900

Air Yards Value Score: 43.66

Air Yards: 816 (No. 27)|
Air Yards Share: 23.9-percent (No. 50)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 358 (No. 37)|

Adam Thielen is averaging 6.5 targets and 58.5 Air Yards across his last four games. This includes a WR9 finish against the Patriots where he scored over 20 fantasy points. He is playing in a game that has the highest projected point total on the slate. While Detroit’s secondary has improved recently, it should shock no one if Thielen posts another top 12 WR week in a game that projects to be a shootout.

9) Darius Slayton  – DK: $5,100

Air Yards Value Score: 47.06

Air Yards: 718 (No. 36)|
Air Yards Share: 30.4-percent (No. 22)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 330 (No. 42)|

Darius Slayton is the Giants’ WR1. He has averaged seven targets and 91.25 Air Yards through the past four games. His low projected ownership makes him an intriguing tournament dart throw, and his usage presents a high enough floor to sustain cash viability despite a tough matchup against the Eagles’ secondary.

Darius Slayton Advanced Stats & Metrics

8) D.J. Chark – DK: $4,300

Air Yards Value Score: 47.43

Air Yards: 544 (No. 57)|
Air Yards Share: 34.1-percent (No. 15)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 364 (No. 35)|

If having a D.J. Chark dance party is cool, consider me Miles Davis. Chark, a regular on the Air Yards value list, finished as a top 24 wide receiver last week posting 14.8 fantasy points. It was his first time scoring double-digit fantasy points since Week 1. He also saw 83.8-percent of snaps despite heralded rookie Jameson Williams being active. Look for Chark to potentially hit again in a game with the highest projected point total on the slate.

7) George Pickens  – DK: $5,000

Air Yards Value Score: 51.92

Air Yards: 919 (No. 20)|
Air Yards Share: 25.7-percent (No. 43)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 493 (No. 17)|

George Pickens posted a 1.2 fantasy point dud last week. He, more concerningly, saw only 12 Air Yards on only two targets in what looked like a smash matchup against the Falcons.

Hopefully, Kenny Pickett and the Steelers meet his demand and “give [him] the fucking ball this week against an exploitable Ravens secondary. He is best deployed as a boom-bust tournament option.

6) Marquez Valdes-Scantling  – DK: $4,100

Air Yards Value Score: 55.84

Air Yards: 860 (No. 25)|
Air Yards Share: 24.2-percent (No. 46)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 383 (No. 29)|

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has seen his snap share in the Chiefs’ offense shrink the past four weeks from 82.5-percent to the 55.6-percent he posted last week. However, he saw a season-high 181 Air Yards last week despite running a season-low 16 routes. His average target depth has ballooned back up to 14.8 yards (No. 5) suggesting he is a full-blown deep threat option for the Chiefs just as he was for the Packers. For this reason, he is best used as a boom-bust tournament option this week.

5) Nico Collins – DK: $4,400

Air Yards Value Score: 58.59

Air Yards: 783 (No. 31)|
Air Yards Share: 30.0-percent (No. 24)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 438 (No. 23)|

The Kyle Allen experiment in Houston is over, and Nico Collins can rejoice. Collins saw 173 Air Yards last week on 10 targets but was only able to convert that into three receptions for 35 yards thanks in a part to Allen’s ineffectiveness as a starter. While the upgrade to Davis Mills is not substantial, Collins should be able to realize more Air Yards this week with more competent quarterback play. While Collins did not practice on Wednesday due to a foot injury, he is still expected to suit up in a game that should see the Texans in catch-up mode against the Cowboys. He is recommended play in all formats especially if Brandin Cooks does not play.

4) Gabriel Davis  – DK: $5,300

Air Yards Value Score: 59.42

Air Yards: 1,017 (No. 17)|
Air Yards Share: 28.2-percent (No. 32)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 483 (No. 19)|

Gabriel Davis previously saw 121 Air Yards against the Jets in Week 9 but only posted 5.3 fantasy points. His 15.4 Average Target Distance (No. 4) is a window into his volatility as a player. He is coming off two consecutive games in which he failed to crest double-digit fantasy points despite averaging 16.55 fantasy the two games prior and 12.5 fantasy points on the season. He makes for an intriguing contrarian play against the Jets this week.

3) Marvin Jones – DK: $3,800

Air Yards Value Score: 63.52

Air Yards: 815 (No. 29)|
Air Yards Share: 27.0-percent (No. 37)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 520 (No. 14)|

Marvin Jones disappointed last week posting only 2.7 fantasy points despite seeing 79 Air Yards. His age-32 campaign has been more bust as opposed to boon despite being the Jaguars’ primary downfield option. He has been seeing mostly Prayer Yards all season. However, at only $3,800 the juice is worth the squeeze if you are looking to save a lot of cash in your lineup.

2) Diontae Johnson  – DK: $5,100

Air Yards Value Score: 67.21

Air Yards: 1,056 (No. 15)|
Air Yards Share: 29.6-percent (No. 26)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 611 No. 6)|

Diontae Johnson was able score more than double-digit fantasy points last week. This is a feat that he has accomplished only six times all season. He is still looking for his first touchdown on the season. This is a touchdown the Steelers seem intent on manufacturing as Johnson has seen nine red zone targets in the past five games.  The levy will break at some point. Look for Johnson to find the endzone against the Ravens this week. He is a preferred cash option.

1) D.J. Moore  – DK: $5,500

Air Yards Value Score: 94.99

Air Yards: 1,066 (No. 14)|
Air Yards Share: 44.6-percent (No. 1)|
Unrealized Air Yards: 557 (No. 9)|

D.J. Moore returns from bye as the Air Yards value play of the week! Perhaps the fourth time is a charm as Moore scored a season-high 20.3 fantasy points with the Panthers utilizing, Sam Darnold, their fourth quarterback this season. Since the trade of Christian McCaffrey, Moore is the focal point of the Panthers’ offense and sports a league-leading 44.6-percent Air Yards share. Play him in all formats this week.

Good luck to everyone in Week 14. May all your Air Yards be realized.