PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Ted Chmyz looks at 2025 Fantasy Bust Candidates.
The fantasy football season is rapidly approaching, and rankings are starting to solidify across the industry. While we haven’t yet reached training camp and peak fantasy sleeper season, now is a great time to look for overrated players and fantasy football bust candidates. For this exercise, I will be using Underdog’s Half-PPR ADP. Underdog ADP does have some quirks — upside and young players are both more valuable in best ball than traditional fantasy — but it’s the most accurate representation of the fantasy landscape right now, especially if we focus only on players’ rankings within their positions.
I went through this same exercise in August of last year, and I’m very proud of the results. I successfully identified quite a few of the biggest busts of the year, including C.J. Stroud, Sam LaPorta, Garrett Wilson, Trey Benson, and Dalton Kincaid. In fact, of the eight players featured in my article, only one ended up meeting or exceeding their ADP in points per game. Unfortunately, that player was Jahmyr Gibbs, arguably the biggest league winner of the season with an overall RB2 finish and at least 23.4 points in all three of the fantasy playoff weeks. Hopefully, this season I can replicate the hits and avoid the one big miss. Let’s get right into it!
PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out!
2025 Fantasy Football Bust Candidates
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: QB5)
My only regret with this pick is that I didn’t write this article earlier, as Burrow started the summer draft season even more overvalued as the fourth QB off the board ahead of Jalen Hurts. His ADP has consistently fallen over the early summer, and he is now (thankfully) clearly behind the big four dual-threat QBs in Underdog drafts. Even still, I would be surprised if I ended up with Burrow on a single one of my redraft teams at this QB5 price.
The reasons Burrow is overrated have very little to do with him as a player or his situation. Although he might not be a truly top-tier NFL quarterback, he is undeniably an elite pocket passer. And his situation in Cincinnati couldn’t be more favorable for fantasy, with two dominant receivers, a pass-happy coaching staff, and a defense that projects to be one of the league’s worst once again.
But Burrow is still a pocket passer, and pocket passers struggle to maintain elite fantasy production. Last year, he finished as the QB3 in points per game, behind only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. But to do that, he had to lead the league in passing attempts by over 10 percent while maintaining an excellent 6.6-percent touchdown rate. The Bengals as a team lead the NFL with 79.6 percent of their touchdowns coming through the air, a number that is all but guaranteed to regress.
Don’t Pay The Pocket-Passer Premium
To be fair, I’m already breaking one of my rules by taking into account Burrow’s overall ADP more than his positional ADP. He is technically also the QB5 in my personal rankings. The issue is that, in Underdog ADP, he is in a tier of his own, going two full rounds ahead of the QB6. That huge gap shows that the market is overly confident in Burrow’s ability to repeat as a top-tier fantasy QB. Given the volatility of pocket-passing production and the likely regression coming for his TD scoring, he is more likely to slide to being a backend QB1 than repeat as a top-five option.
Burrow’s floor may be slightly higher, but more mobile QBs like Kyler Murray (QB8 ADP), Bo Nix (QB9), and Justin Fields (QB10) could easily outscore him by the end of the season. That’s to say nothing of other pocket passers in top-tier offenses like Brock Purdy (QB11), Jordan Love (QB17), and J.J. McCarthy (QB18). Even clear QB2s in ADP like C.J. Stroud (last year’s overvalued pocket passer now down to QB20), Tua Tagovailoa (QB22), and Matthew Stafford (QB24) could ride the wave of touchdown variance above Burrow this season. With this in mind, I recommend either grabbing a truly elite fantasy QB (only a round or two before Burrow) or waiting to take a shot or two in the backend QB1 range (multiple rounds cheaper than Burrow). The first pocket passer off the board in fantasy drafts is usually best avoided, and this year is no exception.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: RB1)
The fantasy market is too scared to admit it, but Saquon doesn’t deserve to be the consensus RB1, even coming off his historic 2,000-yard season. In many ways, the argument against Barkley is similar to the one against Burrow. Last season, he rode an excellent situation and elite efficiency to a dominant performance. But there are real red flags in his fantasy profile, at least compared to his fellow first-round running backs.
Let’s start with the obvious flaws. The two most important factors in predicting running back fantasy production are goal-line work and receiving usage, and Barkley was fairly mediocre in both metrics in 2024. On the receiving end, he ranked 21st among running backs in target share and just 30th in total targets. And, thanks to the power of the still-unbanned Tush Push, he handled just 41.5 percent of the Eagles’ rushes inside the five, 34th-most among RBs with at least 10 games played.
Of course, those numbers didn’t slow Saquon down last year. For one, the Eagles were so dominant that even less than half of their goal-line work was enough for him to tie for seventh in the league with 17 goal-line carries (although he did rank only 19th with four TDs on those touches). And then there was the whole 2,000 yards thing. Barkley led the league in attempts per game behind arguably the best O-line in the country. He also added plenty of value of his own, totaling a whopping 430 yards and four TDs on seven breakaway carries of 40 or more yards.
Can He Do It Again?
Unfortunately, these stats also point to the fragility of Saquon’s profile. What if the Eagles regress defensively? They easily led the league with a 51-percent rush rate, 8.7 percent below expectation. With limited value in the receiving game, losing even a small chunk of his league-leading 345 carries could be a big hit to Barkley’s value. Regression or injuries for Philadelphia’s O-line could also hurt his incredible 5.6 yards per attempt. Or maybe the 28-year-old himself loses a step, or simply doesn’t break as many huge runs — those seven runs for 430 yards were awesome, but they accounted for nearly a fifth (19.8 percent) of Barkley’s fantasy production.
Don’t get me wrong, Barkley is still an elite fantasy asset and deserves to be a first-round pick. But this early in the draft, a few spots of ADP can matter a whole lot. Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are also coming off elite seasons, and these ascending young backs simply have more well-rounded fantasy profiles than Barkley. If (tush) push really came to shove, I’d also back Christian McCaffrey (barring any negative health updates) above Barkley, although that move is obviously hugely risky. Once we factor in the elite receivers at the top of draft boards, I don’t recommend selecting Barkley in the first half of Round 1, which essentially guarantees he won’t end up on your team at his current ADP.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (ADP: WR18)
It’s very easy to tell a compelling story in Scary Terry’s favor. A talented player, McLaurin was held back by undeniably subpar quarterback play for the first five years of his career. Jayden McDaniels burst onto the scene, and he immediately finished as the Half-PPR WR6 (WR15 in points per game). With by far the best QB of his career, McLaurin had by far the best fantasy finish of his career. Now heading into year two with Daniels at the helm, drafting him as a mid-range WR2 is a no-brainer.
Unfortunately, that story is just as easy to poke holes in as it was to tell. Across the first five years of his career, McLaurin averaged 1,057 yards on 76 receptions per season. In 2024, he caught 82 passes for 1,096 yards. For the math-challenged among you, those 2024 numbers were only a marginal improvement over his career averages, with neither number being a career high. Instead, the massive increase in Terry’s fantasy production came from touchdowns. He caught 13 touchdowns in 2024, eight more than he had recorded in a single season since his rookie year. While we can attribute some of that increase to McDaniels, most of it is likely due to randomness, as WR touchdown rates are notoriously volatile.
Same Old, Same Old
Looking beneath the hood, McLaurin was the same player he has always been in 2024: a solid, but unspectacular, WR1. Among receivers with at least 200 routes run, he ranked 41st in targets per route and 25th in yards per route. Washington’s second and third most-productive receivers were 34-year-old Zach Ertz and Olamide Zaccheaus, and McLaurin still managed just a 21.7-percent target share (32nd among WRs).
Heading into 2025, Washington has added more competition for targets with Deebo Samuel and fourth-round rookie Jaylin Lane. Neither of those names is particularly inspiring at this point in their respective careers, but they are still a clear upgrade compared to who the Commanders were rolling out last year. Samuel, in particular, should claim plenty of underneath YAC targets in Kliff Kingsbury’s system.
Could McLaurin run hot on touchdowns again and meet or even exceed this ADP? Sure. But just a bit of regression and increased target competition could easily see him return to his perennial WR3 self. Perhaps more importantly, it’s very hard to see him reaching a ceiling higher than his WR15 finish in points per game last year. The same can’t be said for plenty of receivers behind him in ADP, from former WR1s like Mike Evans and D.J. Moore to young players with unknown upside like Tetairoa McMillan and Xavier Worthy. McLaurin is a talented receiver and solid fantasy option, but last year’s TD luck and hype around this Washington offense have him being drafted higher than his realistic range of outcomes would dictate.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
