Welcome to my DFS Best Plays series, where I detail my favorite cost-adjusted plays across the Sunday DraftKings Main Slate. First, let’s look at last week’s plays. Malik Willis and Sam LaPorta each had poor games relative to their projections in a game that surprisingly turned into a defensive battle. Antonio Williams had a golden opportunity, but did little with it. The good news is that Christian McCaffrey and Efton Chism were big hits. Let’s get on with Week 10.
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DFS Best Plays | Week 10
Tyler Shough, QB Saints vs. the Panthers
The Numbers
- Salary – $5,600
- Game Total – 48.5
- Saints Implied Total – 25.5
- DraftKings PPG – 19.7
- Defensive Rank vs. Position – 12th
The Why
There are plenty of good options at quarterback this week, and Tyler Shough is my favorite. Of the lower-priced options, he has the best combination of projection, matchup, and environment. On paper, it looks like the Panthers are decent against quarterbacks, but that’s misleading. When they’ve faced good quarterbacks, they’ve surrendered points. Caleb Williams scored 37 DraftKings points. Jared Goff had 23. Jordan Love had 22. Now that first-round rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson is playing, it shouldn’t be hard for Shough to have a good game.
Blake Corum, RB Rams vs. the Cardinals
The Numbers
- Salary – $5,100
- Game Total – 39.5
- Rams Implied Total – 24.5
- DraftKings PPG – 10.5
- Defensive Rank vs. Position – 16th
The Why
As the Rams have dealt with more and more injuries, they’ve leaned on their running backs more than ever. With Puka Nacua set to miss some time, their reliance on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum will increase even further. Over the last five weeks, Corum hasn’t scored less than 11.8 DraftKings points and is averaging 14.5 during that time on 12.6 opportunities per game. Even with their injuries, the Rams have heavy favorites and should have no issue winning this game, which should keep Corum heavily involved.
Justin Jefferson, WR Vikings vs. the Packers
The Numbers
- Salary – $6,800
- Game Total – 42.5
- Vikings Implied Total – 19
- DraftKings PPG – 13.6
- Defensive Rank vs. Position – 26th
The Why
We may never see Justin Jefferson this cheap again. It’s been a rough couple of years for Jefferson, as he’s dealt with less-than-ideal quarterback play, and that’s caused his salary to hit a low we haven’t seen in a long time. With Kirk Cousins back in town, we can stop worrying about how Jefferson will perform. The Packers’ defense has played surprisingly well this season, but the one position that has had success against them is wide receivers. Enjoy the discount on Jefferson while you can.
Parker Washington, WR Jaguars vs. the Titans
The Numbers
- Salary – $6,200
- Game Total – 46.5
- Jaguars Implied Total – 28.5
- DraftKings PPG – 14.1
- Defensive Rank vs. Position – 32nd
The Why
It seems like no matter what Parker Washington does, his salary won’t rise to where it should be based on his production this season. Perhaps there is some doubt about Washington since he has had a few disappointing games, but two of those came in difficult cornerback matchups. Washington is still Trevor Lawrence‘s top pass catcher and has been efficient when targeted. The Jaguars have the second-highest implied team total on the slate, and Washington will play a big part in that success.
Tyler Warren, TE Colts vs. the Dolphins
The Numbers
- Salary – $4,400
- Game Total – 38.5
- Colts Implied Total – 21
- DraftKings PPG – 12.0
- Defensive Rank vs. Position – 29th
The Why
Tyler Warren has been a target vacuum for the Colts this season, with at least seven targets in five games, including two with 10. He hasn’t been particularly efficient, as the Colts have used him strictly near the line of scrimmage, with Daniel Jones struggling to push the ball downfield. However, his volume is what’s important here. On a Full-PPR site like DraftKings, he can get there purely on receptions, which he should get plenty of. Now that Josh Downs and Keenan Allen have been traded away, Warren is the only man in town. You can expect another 10-target game here.
