Analytics & Advanced Metrics

After a one-week hiatus from appearing in the PPI rankings after five consecutive showings, D.K. Metcalf returns with a bang to claim the top spot. Through Week 12, Metcalf leads the league in Completed Air Yards with 763, and his 17.9 yards per receptions rank No. 6 among qualified wide receivers. His 112.1 Best Ball Points Added is the No. 3 mark.

Jalen Ramsey’s entrance into the PPI rankings makes him the first defensive player to accomplish the feat. Through Week 12, Ramsey averages 0.20 (No. 3 among qualified cornerbacks) Fantasy Pts Allowed Per Cover Snap. He has allowed one (No. 5) TD this season while holding opposing receivers to 8.1 (No. 9) Fantasy Points per Game.

With the opportunity he’s seen, Justin Jefferson rocks a +43.2 (No. 3 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium, 12.8 (No. 1) Yards per Target, and 0.57 (No. 6) Fantasy Points per Route Run. Kirk Cousins also ranks highly in the efficiency metrics with a +30.0 (No. 2) Production Premium and 8.6 (No. 2) Yards per Attempt. With the increased passing volume paired with the continued efficiency, it provides reasons for optimism for Jefferson as a locked-in WR2 moving forward.

Jerry Jeudy ranks No. 77 with a -17.8 Production Premium, which makes sense when we consider the opportunities, production, and efficiency. Although he lacks efficiency, his opportunities have trended up over the past five games. Overall, Jeudy’s production moving forward relies on volume moreso than efficiency, and Drew Lock’s inefficiencies negatively impact Jeudy’s productivity.

With exposure to COVID-19 rendering their entire quarterback depth chart useless, the Broncos had to get creative. Enter rookie Kendall Hinton, the former Wake Forest quarterback who converted to wide receiver his senior season. Thrown into the fire in an impossible spot, Hinton…played quarterback. Sort of. That is, if throwing more interceptions than completions qualifies as playing quarterback.

Can we petition to get Allen Robinson out of Chicago and on a team with a real quarterback? He’s a WR1 this season and continues to be an undervalued dynasty asset. However, the Bears have no one behind Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles, which makes for a bleak outlook. But Robinson becomes an unrestricted free agent and needs to make his escape from Chicago for his age-28 season.

Last season, Aaron Jones ended up as one of the league’s most efficient running backs with a +29.7 (No. 7 among qualified running backs) Production Premium. This year, Jones ranks No. 13 with 5.5 Yards per Touch and No. 11 with a +25.0 Production Premium, meaning he’s extremely efficient with the opportunities given. Since he ranks highly in Weighted Opportunities, targets, receptions, and receiving yards, it provides optimism moving forward.

With so many opportunities, we hoped that David Montgomery would be better in terms of efficiency. He has a 72.2-percent (No. 7) Snap Share, 69.1-percent (No. 10) Opportunity Share, and 143.0 (No. 10) Weighted Opportunities. With the high volume, we expect his production to improve. However, Montgomery hasn’t displayed productivity OR efficiency to this point in the year. When we consider the struggles and injuries at quarterback, it provides more reasons for concern.

XFL aficionados kept a close eye on P.J. Walker’s first NFL start. The former Houston Roughneck led the XFL in passing with 1,338 yards and 15 TDs before the league folded midseason. While Walker led the Panthers to a 20-0 win against the flailing Lions, he didn’t do anything to jeopardize Teddy Bridgewater’s starting job. His weak fantasy outing (12 points) and Bridgewater’s potential Week 12 return make him a low-priority add for QB-needy teams in deep leagues.

Fantasy gamers should leave Ryan Finley on the waiver wire. He’s a desperation add in deep 2QB/superflex leagues. Tee Higgins’ redraft value plummets with Finley under center and his safe weekly floor disappears. Including Week 11, Higgins has recorded only two games with fewer than 10 fantasy points. He becomes tough to trust in redraft lineups. Meanwhile, his buy window opens a crack in dynasty leagues given the significance of Joe Burrow’s injury and his uncertain future.

Salvon Ahmed did enough to earn Miami’s backup gig, but he faces an uphill battle to fantasy relevancy given his lack of work in the passing game. His 5.6-percent (30th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share and underwhelming workout metrics paint the picture of a potential two-down grinder. That, coupled with his middling 24.2-percent (49th-percentile) College Dominator Rating paint a grim picture for sustained fantasy relevance.

Ryan Nall’s failure to make an impact on Monday night makes him a low-priority waiver wire add in deeper dynasty leagues. He figures to be relegated to third-string duty with David Montgomery expected to return soon from injury. Montgomery hasn’t exactly lit the league on fire in his first two seasons, so Nall can still carve out a role as the season wanes. A testament to his receiving prowess, Nall earned a 10.2-percent (76th-percentile) College Target Share.

With D’Andre Swift’s role increasing, he ranks as Detroit’s most fantasy-relevant running back. Unless there’s an injury to Adrian Peterson, it doesn’t look like Swift’s Snap Share and opportunities will increase too significantly moving forward. Peterson’s role continues to decline with his primary involvement being in the rushing game. And although Kerryon Johnson also occasionally eats into Swift’s production and workload, continue to fire up Swift as an RB2 in PPR leagues.

The tricky part of navigating this Ravens backfields is accounting for the rushing ability and production of quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens run a league-high 33.2 Team Run Plays per Game, but they unfortunately split up the touches three ways. Still, prioritize J.K. Dobbins in the Ravens backfield due to his involvement in the passing game, explosiveness, and efficiency. Prioritize Gus Edwards in non-PPR leagues and fade Mark Ingram in all formats. 

PlayerProfiler was built for guys like Kirk Merritt. What jumps off the page when visiting Merritt’s player profile? His workout metrics. Aside from an 11.17 (56th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Agility Score, the undrafted receiver from Arkansas State boasts elite scores in all of his workout metrics. His elevation from the Dolphins practice squad and subsequent activation for the game earned him the top PPI ranking for Week 9.

Jake Luton offers an upside waiver wire pickup in 2QB/superflex season-long leagues, or a streaming option in traditional formats. Coming off his strong first start, dynasty gamers should look to sell high. His weak prospect profile, underwhelming workout metrics and low draft capital diminish his chances for long-term success. And unless he exceeds expectations and turns this offense around, the Jaguars (1-7) would be remiss not to take a quarterback with one of their two 2021 first-round picks.

Ben DiNucci is a developmental QB who’s not worth a roster spot in all but the deepest of Superflex dynasty leagues, and otherwise remains fantasy irrelevant. Against the Eagles, he completed 21-of-40 attempts for 180 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions while losing two fumbles. Philadelphia sacked DiNucci four times for a loss of 48 yards. His prime-time faceplant earned him the top PPI ranking for Week 8. Woof.

Denzel Mims’ ceiling will remain capped until Adam Gase disappears, but that makes him even more of a screaming buy-low in dynasty leagues based on his prospect profile. The second-round pick from Baylor possesses elite workout metrics and college production to match. Mims offers managers a speculative add in deeper redraft formats, but doesn’t possess enough weekly upside for anything but a desperation Flex play.

At 6-3, 229-pounds D.K. Metcalf runs a 4.33 (99th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard dash, which clocks in a tenth of a second faster than Tyreek Hill. He is the definition of freak athlete. Through Week 6, Metcalf averages 22.5 (No. 1) Yards per Reception, while also recording 377 (No. 5) Completed Air Yards and drawing 13 (No. 4) Deep Targets. Facing a stout 49ers defense and carrying the second-highest salary among receivers ($7,500), he’s an intriguing main slate GPP play for Week 8.

JaMycal Hasty has garnered nine carries in consecutive weeks, but needs to make a living in the passing game to gain fantasy relevance. He’s seen one target in each of the past two games, which won’t keep him afloat. He’s still worth an add in deeper redraft leagues given the overall success of the 49ers backfield. His dynasty outlook trends up too, and he shouldn’t be tough to acquire given his lack of a breakout game.