Analytics & Advanced Metrics

To those familiar with college football, it should come as no surprise that Saquon Barkley sits atop the historical Breakout Ratings for RBs. A three-year starter in college, who had over 1,000 yards on the ground each season, brought in 54 passes for 632 yards as a junior, and ran a 4.40 flat in the 40-yard Dash. The 99th percentile SPARQ-x athlete and No. 2 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Yes, that guy is No. 1 all-time.

Certainly a bet on upside when Washington selected him in the NFL Draft’s third round, my modeling efforts found the Antonio Gibson pick to be savvy given that he has a slightly higher Breakout Rating than the average third-round pick. The Breakout Finder recognized his potential were he to land in a starting role, and he definitely impressed in Year 1, recording over 1,000 total yards and 11 rushing TDs.

Not all Unrealized Air Yards are created equal. In 2020, Calvin Ridley led all qualified wide receivers with 968 Unrealized Air Yards. The player with the second-most (965) was Denver Broncos rookie wideout Jerry Jeudy. He logged 1,536 (No. 6) Air Yards thanks in no small part to his steady diet of 25 (No. 7) Deep Targets. Why the huge disparity between these two players? Putting it mildly, quarterbacks matter.

A player posting a high share of Unrealized Air Yards is not necessarily a player to immediately shy away from. A target is, after all, earned by that player being good at catching the ball. That is why Jerry Jeudy is a bounceback candidate in 2021, especially if the Broncos can upgrade their quarterback. Calvin Ridley finished as the WR4 in Fantasy Points per Game in 2020 with a quarterback who was not among the elite in terms of accuracy.

According to playwright Silva Semerciyan, witches can’t be burned. The same could be said in 2020 for Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander. The No. 1 corner on our rankings, Alexander led the position with a 0.0-percent Burn Rate last season. Teams couldn’t find a way to beat him deep, but they also discovered that he wasn’t in the mood to give up much in the short to intermediate areas of the field either.

Jalen Ramsey held a host of the NFL’s best wide receivers in check throughout the season. In two games matched up against DeAndre Hopkins, he was targeted 20 times, allowing 10 receptions for 76 yards combined. He was No. 7 among qualified cornerbacks with a mere 6.0 Yards per Target allowed, while his 10.1 Yards per Reception Allowed was the eighth-best mark. These marks made him a destroyer of fantasy production.

It’s hard to glean too many conclusions given the limited opportunities and a weak Jets offense. However, I’m ready to buy back into Denzel Mims in 2021 redraft leagues and buy low in dynasty leagues. Without Adam Gase as the head coach, it’s stock up for all Jets players, particularly Mims since Gase tends to tank a player’s value. Fantasy managers will likely draft him near his 2020 ADP, so eat that draft value up all day.

Michael Pittman projects as the Colts’ top wide receiver since T.Y. Hilton is an unrestricted free agent. The team also has question marks at the quarterback position with Philip Rivers announcing his retirement. Pittman should earn more opportunities, but temper expectations based on his team being run-heavy and having an uncertain quarterback situation. 

We’ve all seen those videos of Jerry Jeudy and his drool-inducing route running. However, he finished his rookie season among the league’s most inefficient receivers. His inconsistent production makes sense when we consider his decent opportunities but lack of efficiency. Sometimes receivers rely on volume, efficiency, or a mix of both. Hopefully for Jeudy, the opportunities or efficiency improves in 2021.

Gabriel Davis’ 2.21 (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Target average is unreal given the low amount of opportunities. With Stefon Diggs, John Brown and Cole Beasley all around in 2021, it’s hard to project more opportunities. However, if Josh Allen can prove that the efficiency he displayed in 2019 wasn’t a fluke, Davis can provide sneaky fantasy production as a deep Flex wide receiver.

Along with numerous opportunities, Justin Jefferson also ranks highly in several efficiency metrics. He boasts a +24.8 (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium with 11.2 (No. 4) Yards Per Target and averages 16.0 (No. 9) Yards per Reception. Heading into 2021, he will demolish his past 2020 ADP and likely rank as a high-end WR2 pushing WR1 territory. He made a strong argument as Minnesota’s top wide receiver and the best in this rookie class.

Through 12 games in 2020, Brandon Aiyuk averages 15.4 (No. 17) Fantasy Points per Game on 60 (No. 30) receptions, 748 (No. 35) receiving yards, and seven (No. 17) total touchdowns with a 10.6-percent Touchdown Rate. Seeing the discrepancy in Fantasy Points per Game and receiving production tells us that the high Touchdown Rate boosted his fantasy production. Imagine what his fantasy production would look like if he maintained a similar pace to his most productive six-game stretch over a full season.

Antonio Gibson’s speed, athleticism, and pass-catching ability have all translated to the pro game in his rookie season. He holds a +28.0 (No. 4 among qualified running backs) Production Premium, with a 5.2 (No. 17) Yards Per Touch average, 28.3-percent (No. 8) Juke Rate, and 278 (No. 12) Yards Created. Assuming he earns more opportunities, paired with the efficient production, he should rank as a high-end RB2 next season, especially in PPR leagues.

It’s clear that J.K. Dobbins needs more opportunities, and it looks like the Ravens realize that as well. Unless he earns more opportunities in 2021 or continues to maintain his efficiency, he probably ranks as a back-end RB2 inside the top-24. However, with the limited targets and receiving production, he looks better suited for non-PPR leagues as a touchdown-dependent RB2 that has averaged 78.6 total yards over the past seven games.

In another first for the PPI rankings, Ohio State prospect Trey Sermon received the most page views for Week 15. Sermon’s explosion in the conference title game boosts his draft stock. He’s a player to keep an eye on this offseason, but finds himself in a loaded 2021 RB class that includes Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, among others.

While the Cowboys close the book on a forgettable 2020 season, optimism abounds in the form of Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb. The talented young players showed their mettle against the 49ers. Both players enjoy a bright dynasty outlook, although Lamb makes for the tougher acquisition. If Ezekiel Elliott sits again in Week 16, Pollard draws a tough matchup against the Eagles in the fantasy finals. Proceed with caution.

Throughout the entire season, James Robinson has received the RB1 workload that fantasy managers drool over. His rookie year efficiency has been mind-blowing despite a 73.7 (No. 37 among qualified running backs) Run Blocking Efficiency mark. He checks all of the boxes we look for. Assuming he continues to receive the volume while also maintaining the production and efficiency, he likely ranks as an RB1 in redraft leagues heading into 2021.

Jonathan Taylor’s opportunity and production have trended up over his past three games. During that stretch, he averaged 21.3 total touches and 138 total yards with nine targets and three touchdowns. If he keeps producing to finish off the year, then expect his 2021 ADP to rise or hover in the same range as 2020. With his talent, season-long production, and efficiency, he should rank as a high-end RB2 or back end RB1 heading into 2021.

Chad Hansen, unknown to the masses before last week, remains an intriguing waiver wire target for playoff-eligible teams. Given his consistent usage over the past two games, he looks locked into the tertiary role in Houston’s passing game at the least. He also deserves consideration in deeper dynasty leagues, but faces an uncertain path to a meaningful future role. Keke Coutee’s role is secure with Randall Cobb out, but his Target Share fluctuation makes him harder to trust.

Drops are a concern for any receiver, but they’re amplified for Diontae Johnson given the abundance of talent in the Steelers receiving corps. It’s doubtful he falls out of favor with coach Mike Tomlin, but a bounce back performance in Week 15 would help. He draws a beatable Bengals secondary, so roll him out in the fantasy semis. In Week 10 against Cincinnati, he caught six passes for 116 yards and score, finishing as the WR5.