Trades Buy/Sell

Justin Jefferson played on less than 80-percent of Minnesota’s snaps through two weeks, but has topped that number in both of the following weeks. The only argument against him is his offense. The Vikings are known as a run-first team, but that choice might not be on the table for them going forward. They allow their opponents to average 8.4 yards per attempt to opposing passers. If they’re going to keep getting into shootouts, Jefferson has WR2 upside every week.

Kenyan Drake is an inferior running back to Chase Edmonds and can only operate as the top back in Arizona for so long before that sends him to the bench. Edmonds has him bested in Breakaway Run Rate, Production Premium, Expected Points Added, and Yards per Route Run among other metrics. He’s the better pass-catcher, which makes Drake a grinder like Damien Harris or Adrian Peterson.

Through three games, Jonnu Smith has smashed. He has recorded 13 (No. 13 among qualified tight ends) receptions for 181 (No. 9) receiving yards and averages 16.4 (No. 3) Fantasy Points per Game. Smith has drawn 20 (No. 12) targets, a 20.6-percent (No. 5) Target Share, 135 (No. 17) Air Yards (No. 17), and a 17.2-percent (No. 12) Air Yards Share. Even with the low Air Yards total, Smith has racked up 100 (No. 6) Yards After Catch.

Hunter Henry washed away the narrative and concern surrounding a new quarterback other than Philip Rivers targeting the tight end position. Amongst tight ends, Henry has earned a 19.5-percent (No. 9) Target Share with 225 (No. 8) Air Yards and a 20.1-percent (No. 8) Air Yards Share. Henry has averaged 10.6 (No. 15) Fantasy Points per Game without even scoring a touchdown yet. He’s a must-start player and should be targeted aggressively in trades.

D.J. Moore has drawn 26 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) targets, a 25.5-percent (No. 11) Target Share, 358 (No. 5) Air Yards, and a 48.0-percent (No. 3) Air Yards Share. However, with 14 (No. 24) receptions for 239 (No. 14) receiving yards and zero (No. 67) touchdowns, he’s averaged a mere 12.6 (No. 34) Fantasy Points per Game. All of those advanced metrics not aligning with the fantasy production screams Buy, Buy, Buy (and we don’t mean the NSYNC song).

The most concerning stat for Michael Gallup is the lowly 13.6-percent (No. 73) Target Share. However, Dak Prescott targets him deep, evidenced by a 17.0 (No. 9) Average Target Distance mark and 22.4 (No. 3) Yards per Reception. If the Target Share increases, then Gallup should improve his fantasy production. Since he’s only averaged 13.9 (No. 27) Fantasy Points per Game to this point, fantasy gamers should trade for him now before he has another outing like last week’s 25.8-point (WR7) performance. 

Brandon Aiyuk’s profile coming out of Arizona State was impressive. He posted a 40.6-percent (82nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating and contributed on special teams in both of his collegiate seasons at the FBS level. His history of production and early NFL success points to a bright rookie season that is worth paying a premium for.

Per the Data Analysis Tool, Nick Chubb’s 7.4-percent touchdown rate ranks No. 6 among backs with more than 20 carries. If one of the most random stats in fantasy football doesn’t break his way on most weeks, Chubb will end the season as a middling RB2. Look to move him for backs seeing more volume in the passing game who haven’t been able to find the end zone as much such as Kenyan Drake or Joe Mixon.

The Bengals have given A.J. Green a 23.4-percent (No. 21 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and a 44.5-percent (No. 6) Air Yards Share. He’s given them a whole eight (No. 32) catches for 80 (No. 60) yards. Green’s efficiency metrics have been the stuff of nightmares. Pick almost any metric. If you’re on Green’s page, it’s going to say he’s closer to No. 100 than even No. 50. He’s standing on the edge of a fantasy cliff and Tee Higgins’ presence will be the final nudge. 

Josh Jacobs has been as good as the tape grinders have billed through two games this year. He even has seven (No. 11) catches for 63 (No. 10) receiving yards on a 14.5-percent (No. 6) Target Share. He also currently leads all running backs with 23 Evaded Tackles and has a 39.0-percent (No. 9) Juke Rate. People will still be anchored to draft capital early in the season. Take advantage and abandon ship on lesser backs such as Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook in favor of Jacobs. 

It’s bad process to devalue Devin Singletary just days after he led the league in routes run at the running back position. Fortunately for those seeking to buy low, that’s exactly what’s happening here. There was nothing noteworthy in rookie Zack Moss’ 12-touch, 27-yard performance that suggests he’s ready to usurp Singletary as the lead back. Moss’ offseason hype and Singletary’s underwhelming Week 1 has opened a buy-low window to be taken advantage of.

While David Montgomery’s 12.5 Weighted Opportunities in Week 1 might not stand out, it’s encouraging that the coaching staff deemed the second-year running back healthy enough to play over Tarik Cohen for the most part. The 23-year old looked genuinely improved over his rookie season, and his 35.7-percent Juke Rate and five Evaded Tackles back that up. Given Montgomery suffered no setbacks, his share of the backfield workload will only grow as the season moves along. 

Before the season, Devin Singletary’s fantasy football value entered into a quintessential touch squeeze. Basically, both Singletary and Zack Moss are capable of handling the majority of touches in the Bills backfield. This leads to both sharing it almost 50/50. Where Moss may have found an edge is inside the red-zone, totaling three carries from inside the five to Singletary’s zero. Both backs are no more than Flex plays (for now).

Whereas J.K. Dobbins’ second touchdown came after the game was decided, he still managed to lead the backfield with two Goal Line Carries, converting both. Ingram was not used at the goal line, which is potentially troubling after he registered 13 (No. 2 among qualified running backs) such carries in 2019. He should be given one more week in starting lineups to prove himself before we consider other arrangements.

Will Fuller’s Week 1 performance confirmed the priors that he would be an alpha receiver on the Houston offense. He hit 123 yards of total target depth on 10 targets. He caught eight balls for 112 yards and was the only Houston receiver to catch more than three balls versus the Chiefs. Buy him before he hits 150 yards or scores multiple times in a game. He’s a WR1 going forward and paying anything less is a steal.

Hayden Hurst only drew five targets against the Seahawks in Week 1, the same number as Todd Gurley. Both earned a 9.8-percent Target Share. That isn’t going to cut it for Hurst to post fantasy TE1 numbers. He has never been a special player and this performance shows that he’s certainly not capable of getting his in an offense stacked with pass-catching options. See if the person who has Logan Thomas will let you buy high with Hurst as a bargaining chip.

The Miles Sanders profile looks like that of a bell-cow running back. He is dealing with a hamstring injury but will be announced as active for Week 1. That will return his price to the mid-first-round, back where he was late in the summer. Buy him then, buy him now, buy him high, just get Sanders before he turns from a prospective top-five fantasy back to the real deal.

Mike Williams is questionable for Week 1 with a shoulder injury and reports at the end of camp indicated that the Chargers were preparing to be without him for most of September. Now he’s set to be a game-time decision for Week 1 and will almost certainly not be completely healthy if he does suit up. This is on top of him already entering a worse situation that played in last year, now having Tyrod Taylor as his quarterback.

It’s in the U.S. Constitution that Jarvis Landry must receive 120 targets every single NFL season. It’s true — look it up. Landry, who racked up more fantasy points last season than all but 11 wideouts, is once again being overlooked in redraft. He’s something close to a must-draft for those who hammer running back early and often.

Sure, Tyler Boyd won’t see 148 garbage targets like he did in 2019, assuming A.J. Green can remain upright for most or all of the 2020 season. Still, he should easily eclipse 100 targets and could prove the above projection overly-conservative if the Bengals let it rip this year and end up among the pass-heaviest teams in the league.