Fantasy Football

PlayerProfiler subscribers already know all about Joshua Kelley’s upside. He’s healthy Sony Michel. His usage was throttled back in favor of Austin Ekeler over these last few weeks, but Ekeler is slated to miss 4-6 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. The split between Kelley and Justin Jackson is yet to be seen, but both players warrant a bid going into the Week 5 waiver run.

Julio Jones is dealing with lingering hamstring issues, paving the way for more opportunity for Olamide Zaccheaus, who profiles as a proficient slot receiver best comparable to Jamison Crowder. His 34.1-percent (94th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Target Share and 19.1 (88th-percentile) Breakout Age suggest that this undrafted free agent belongs on NFL rosters and fantasy teams alike.

Give an athletic phenom 16 targets in the perfect Game Script, and that’s the Amari Cooper ceiling scenario. Cooper racked up 134 yards and a score on 12 catches in a game where Dak Prescott had over 500 passing yards. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone, and it makes for unreal passing volume. Cooper is a top-5 play going forward, especially as Michael Gallup fades further into the ether. 

Joe Mixon ran well against the poor Jaguars defense, with a long burst of 34 yards. The offensive line woes for the Bengals have been highly publicized, but Joe Burrow’s continued improvement week over week has forced defenses to spread out against the balanced attack. Mixon will attempt to continue his success against… the Baltimore Ravens. He makes for a choice tournament play with a precocious Joe Burrow ready to do battle with a Ravens team that’s shown unevenness in games they trail.

Averaging 12.5 (No. 26) Fantasy Points per Game, David Montgomery is in line to become a full-time player – 70-percent Snap Share or higher – with a slight uptick in touches. He averaged 14 carries and three targets per game before Tarik Cohen’s injury. Hurting Montgomery’s case, though, is that the Bears rank in the bottom half of the league with 19 running back targets. Montgomery is a volume-based RB2 moving forward. If he can push for 20 touches with Nick Foles at quarterback, his fantasy football outlook is optimal.

Despite the great opportunity, Evan Engram’s production is lackluster. He has a 35-percent (No. 10 among qualified tight ends) Slot Rate with 56 (No. 5) Slot Snaps, emphasizing his passing game utilization. He’s commanded 20 (No. 7) targets on a Giants team averaging 40.7 (No. 7) Team Pass Plays Per Game. Lastly, his Target Share is decent at 18.9-percent (No. 9), though he only has a 17.9-percent (No. 48) Target Rate. Basically, he’s not commanding a dominant share of the targets, nor is he targeted on a dominant rate of the routes he runs.

Kenny Golladay secured a 22.6-percent (No. 20 among qualified wide receivers) Target Rate in his first game back from injury and averaged 2.53 (No. 16) Fantasy Points Per Target. Lattimore allows 18.6 (No. 69) Yards per Reception. On the other side, Golladay averaged 18.3 (No. 4) Yards per Reception last season. It feels weird to say that Lattimore is the cornerback matchup to target here, but his 2020 season has been downright horrible. This is a wheels up situation.

To say that Tavierre Thomas has struggled in 2020 is an understatement. His 23.1-percent Burn Rate is fourth-highest among all cornerbacks, while his 139.1 Passer Rating Allowed is only better than 11 cornerbacks in the league. CeeDee Lamb averages 1.90 (No. 46) Fantasy Points Per Target, while Thomas allows 2.50 Fantasy Points Per Target. Amari Cooper may receive more targets than Lamb this week, but Lamb will do more with each of his targets than Cooper will against Denzel Ward.

D.J. Moore has drawn 26 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) targets, a 25.5-percent (No. 11) Target Share, 358 (No. 5) Air Yards, and a 48.0-percent (No. 3) Air Yards Share. However, with 14 (No. 24) receptions for 239 (No. 14) receiving yards and zero (No. 67) touchdowns, he’s averaged a mere 12.6 (No. 34) Fantasy Points per Game. All of those advanced metrics not aligning with the fantasy production screams Buy, Buy, Buy (and we don’t mean the NSYNC song).

The most concerning stat for Michael Gallup is the lowly 13.6-percent (No. 73) Target Share. However, Dak Prescott targets him deep, evidenced by a 17.0 (No. 9) Average Target Distance mark and 22.4 (No. 3) Yards per Reception. If the Target Share increases, then Gallup should improve his fantasy production. Since he’s only averaged 13.9 (No. 27) Fantasy Points per Game to this point, fantasy gamers should trade for him now before he has another outing like last week’s 25.8-point (WR7) performance. 

Brandon Aiyuk’s profile coming out of Arizona State was impressive. He posted a 40.6-percent (82nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating and contributed on special teams in both of his collegiate seasons at the FBS level. His history of production and early NFL success points to a bright rookie season that is worth paying a premium for.

Per the Data Analysis Tool, Nick Chubb’s 7.4-percent touchdown rate ranks No. 6 among backs with more than 20 carries. If one of the most random stats in fantasy football doesn’t break his way on most weeks, Chubb will end the season as a middling RB2. Look to move him for backs seeing more volume in the passing game who haven’t been able to find the end zone as much such as Kenyan Drake or Joe Mixon.

The future of the Rams backfield remains somewhat murky. Veteran Malcolm Brown is still involved and Cam Akers will eventually return from injury. Even if Akers is able to shed his day-to-day tag, all indications suggest that Darrell Henderson has earned a Week 4 starting role. Whether or not the team returns to a committee approach, Henderson has flashed and shown that he can produce at the pro level. His dynasty stock has risen as a result.

At 6-2, 216-pounds, Gabriel Davis provides the Bills offense with a different element at receiver – size. The UCF alumi’s prospect profile is good, with a 34.4-percent (65th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating, 103.1 (77th-percentile) Speed Score and 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If Brown misses extended time, this may be the last opportunity to acquire Davis at value.

Brandon Aiyuk is less widely rostered than Justin Jefferson but unlikely to be available in deep leagues. He is a stronger add than Jefferson and Tee Higgins this week, because he would likely operate as the 49ers’ No. 1 wide receiver until Deebo Samuel is 100-percent back online.

Travis Homer is a more versatile and explosive back than Carlos Hyde and received the first backfield snap in a clutch situation after Chris Carson went down on a dirty play at the end of Seattle’s epic Week 3 win. Like Myles Gaskin last week, Homer is this week’s signature darkhorse free agent fantasy running back and a high priority add. Because he did not pop in the score, he can be added for a small percentage of most FAAB budgets.

Alvin Kamara’s monster usage and raw talent has lifted him above every other player in fantasy football through the season’s first three weeks. The Saints have fed him as much as he can handle with Drew Brees’ arm shot and the offense already missing their only true playmaker on the outside in Michael Thomas. He’s Christian McCaffrey in a better offense, and at a reduced cost. A Week 4 contest against the Lions is a lock button spot for fantasy’s most involved running back.

Kyler Murray is locked onto DeAndre Hopkins, targeting him heavily on the outside in both short-yardage situations and downfield. Hopkins faces the defensively challenged Carolina Panthers next week, who surrendered 330 passing yards to Justin Herbert in his second ever NFL start. Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler destroyed the Panthers in the middle of the field. Deploying Hopkins in the slot would be a successful operation. With unmatched usage, he is a premier pay-up candidate in DFS.

Through two favorable matchups Mitchell Trubisky currently ranks No. 15 among qualified quarterbacks in Fantasy Points per Game, just outside QB1 territory. He’s recorded 14 (No. 6) Red Zone Attempts, eight (No. 9) in Deep Ball Attempts, and 8.7 (No. 10) Air Yards per Attempt. Through two weeks, the Atlanta Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 97 passing attempts and Bengals tight ends have drawn a 21.6-percent Target Share. With C.J. Uzomah out for the rest of the regular season, Drew Sample walks into a prime opportunity to soak up most, if not all, of that target share. Remember, this Bengals regime spent a second round pick on Sample in last year’s draft. Through two games, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.