Fantasy Football

Kareem Hunt’s ceiling is the highest of any of the Zero RB targets. If Nick Chubb goes down, Hunt slides into a massive Opportunity Share. He would have the Cleveland backfield to himself, absorbing all the carries, receptions, and touchdowns. He would instantly become a top-five fantasy running back. We don’t even have to assume that he can do it, we’ve seen it from him already.

Phillip Lindsay is explosive in the passing game. He struggled with drops in 2019, but he caught 35 passes in each of his first two pro seasons and held a 14.6-percent (93rd-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share in college. He has shown enough to believe he will still hold a fair share of the Broncos backfield work. If Melvin Gordon gets injured or proves ineffective, we already know Lindsay can step into that RB1 role and thrive.

There are many data points on the JaMycal Hasty profile that make him a worthwhile stash. The big knock on him is his 12.8-percent (13th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating. He played four seasons of college ball but peaked at second in rushing yardage on his own team. He has an intriguing skillset for a UDFA, but the incoming price correction from fantasy players overreacting to the Raheem Mostert news could make him a chalk-fade within weeks.

Jeff Wilson’s athleticism doesn’t immediately rule him out of fantasy viability, but it certainly puts him at a disadvantage. He did not record a single athletic measurable that was above average when testing. Unlike JaMycal Hasty, what Wilson lacks in athleticism he makes up for with actual production. He also has reps in the most valuable role in modern football: the goal line back. He recorded 2.3 red zone carries per game in San Francisco’s first seven games last year.

Phillip Dorsett is currently slotted in as the number three receiver in Seattle and the primary deep threat. Last season, Tom Brady had a 100.6 QBR when targeting Dorsett, good enough for No. 32 among qualified players. He will now be drawing targets from Russell Wilson; who boasted a 110.9 (No. 4) True Passer Rating in 2019 with a 39.8-percent (No. 12) Deep Ball Completion Percentage.

Kaden Smith’s usage in seven games last season was absurd with a 94.6-percent (No. 1) Snap Share, a 70.9-percent (No. 8) Route Participation mark, and a 16.7-percent (No. 11) Target Share on an offense that saw the seventh-most pass plays per game. He managed 10.8 Fantasy Points per Game with a 73.8-percent (No. 12) Catch Rate with three (No. 19) touchdowns. Add in Engrams No. 5 Injury Probability ranking and No. 11 Fragility Rating and we have the recipe for a TE1 in fantasy football.

At 6-1 and 205-pounds, Marquez Callaway boasts above average marks in Speed Score and College Dominator Rating. Despite a below average 40-Yard Dash time, the Tennessee product boasted a 19.0 (90th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPR mark. Not to mention a 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. The young receiver has the requisite profile and college production to make noise in the NFL.

There were few better landing spots for JaMycal Hasty; joining a 49ers squad that churns out productive backs, undrafted or otherwise. With Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman leading the way in San Fran, there is little else for depth behind them. A path is clear for Hasty on a team that utilizes the receiving skills of their backs; a specialty of the undrafted rookie. Like Mostert and Matt Breida before him, Hasty looks to make his mark in the city by the bay.

Irv Smith recorded 36 (No. 23 among qualified tight ends) receptions for 311 (No. 33) yards with two (No. 33) touchdowns as a 21-year-old rookie. To put that into context, that’s No. 3 in receptions and No. 6 in yards all time for a tight end at age 21. He was able to accomplish this while having a mere 61.7-percent (No. 34) Shap Share and, per PFF, rush blocking on 43.3-percent of his snaps with a No. 22 grade out of 67 qualified tight ends. 

Tight end is considered the toughest offensive position to come into and produce right away at the pro level. Smith was able to do so as a 21-year-old rookie back-up tight end, making his 2019 season even more impressive. The combination of producing at such a young age, the athletic profile, and the current passing options on the Vikings make him a prime buy candidate before his eventual breakout.

The Carolina Panthers offense is loaded with explosive talent all across the board. The defense, on the other hand, is young and terrible. With a 53.3-percent (97th percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating, D.J. Moore is a great target to pair with Teddy Bridgewater and his 7.8 (No. 2) Accuracy Rating.

Joe Burrow posted a 94.9 (99th-percentile) College QBR in a Heisman season for the ages. The Cincinnati Bengals offense has the tools to take off in Zac Taylor’s system. Wide receiver A.J. Green’s 66.7-percent (No. 3) Contested Catch Rate from 2018 will pair nicely with Burrow’s 76.3-percent Completion Percentage. 

In a draft class that included Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cam Akers is flying under the radar. He was even selected before Dobbins in this year’s NFL Draft. At 5-10, 217-pounds with a 4.47 (87th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-Yard Dash and 108.7 (89th-percentile) Speed Score, Akers fits the mold of a feature back.

There is hope that this Rams offensive line can surprise with health and continuity as it did in 2017 and 2018. Akers’ youth, health, and profile should help even if there is no improvement along the offensive line. If he receives a similar Opportunity Share to Gurley’s 2019 mark where he inefficiently averaged 14.5 (No. 17) Fantasy Points per Game, there’s no telling what he can do. 

Anthony McFarland’s second gear is apparent. If he wasn’t outrunning defenders at the second level, there were plenty of jukes and broken tackles on film to support an Aaron Jones-ian talent profile at the pro level. His talents can be unlocked behind the perennially great Steelers line. We’ve got the uncertain backfield, plus athleticism, game-breaking speed and make-defenders-miss-ability. That meets our standards.

With Dion Lewis out of the picture, there’s hope for Darrynton Evans to immediately earn meaningful snaps as a pass-catcher with the Titans showing no desire to ramp up Derrick Henry’s pass-catching opportunities. While not a prolific pass-catcher in school, his targets and receiving production increased every year, and he’s certainly got more of a satellite back-plus profile than Henry.

With Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, Keenan Allen should still command plenty of looks. He was inside the top ten with 831 (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers) Completed Air Yards and 368 (No. 9) Yards after the Catch despite playing with a quarterback in Phillip Rivers who finished outside the top 15 with a 7.2 (No. 16) Accuracy Rating. We have a unique opportunity to take a player who may be one of the last true target hogs at the wide receiver position as a low-end WR2. That is a bargain.

Gerald Everett wasn’t as flashy as Tyler Higbee, but before the injury that opened the door for Higbee, he was having a pretty good season. He finished the year with a 14.5-percent (No. 9) Hog Rate. The fact that he only scored two touchdowns obviously hurt him a great deal from a fantasy point of view, but despite this, he put in four top 12 scoring weeks between Weeks 4-10. Plus, and this does bear mentioning, he is super athletic.

Similar to 2019, this season offers multiple running back options in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. While the high-end backs are worth their price, there is enough value late that wide receiver can still be the focus early on. According to current ADP, Chris Carson and Mark Ingram are once again going in the fifth round or later. Derrius Guice, a player with compelling metrics, is going in the seventh round. Though there is history of injury and competition in Washington, Guice is a prime breakout candidate.

Not only does this running back rookie class ooze talent, but there is also depth. Zack Moss, Anthony McFarland and Joshua Kelly are late-round rookies with intriguing player profiles. They also have an opportunity to make an instant impact given their situations. Moss and Kelly will have opportunity right away and McFarland is a James Conner injury away from becoming Ben Roethlisberger’s best friend. These players can be added to the list of names to target in the later rounds to fill out depth at the position.