Fantasy Football

D.J. Moore has drawn 26 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) targets, a 25.5-percent (No. 11) Target Share, 358 (No. 5) Air Yards, and a 48.0-percent (No. 3) Air Yards Share. However, with 14 (No. 24) receptions for 239 (No. 14) receiving yards and zero (No. 67) touchdowns, he’s averaged a mere 12.6 (No. 34) Fantasy Points per Game. All of those advanced metrics not aligning with the fantasy production screams Buy, Buy, Buy (and we don’t mean the NSYNC song).

The most concerning stat for Michael Gallup is the lowly 13.6-percent (No. 73) Target Share. However, Dak Prescott targets him deep, evidenced by a 17.0 (No. 9) Average Target Distance mark and 22.4 (No. 3) Yards per Reception. If the Target Share increases, then Gallup should improve his fantasy production. Since he’s only averaged 13.9 (No. 27) Fantasy Points per Game to this point, fantasy gamers should trade for him now before he has another outing like last week’s 25.8-point (WR7) performance. 

Brandon Aiyuk’s profile coming out of Arizona State was impressive. He posted a 40.6-percent (82nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating and contributed on special teams in both of his collegiate seasons at the FBS level. His history of production and early NFL success points to a bright rookie season that is worth paying a premium for.

Per the Data Analysis Tool, Nick Chubb’s 7.4-percent touchdown rate ranks No. 6 among backs with more than 20 carries. If one of the most random stats in fantasy football doesn’t break his way on most weeks, Chubb will end the season as a middling RB2. Look to move him for backs seeing more volume in the passing game who haven’t been able to find the end zone as much such as Kenyan Drake or Joe Mixon.

The future of the Rams backfield remains somewhat murky. Veteran Malcolm Brown is still involved and Cam Akers will eventually return from injury. Even if Akers is able to shed his day-to-day tag, all indications suggest that Darrell Henderson has earned a Week 4 starting role. Whether or not the team returns to a committee approach, Henderson has flashed and shown that he can produce at the pro level. His dynasty stock has risen as a result.

At 6-2, 216-pounds, Gabriel Davis provides the Bills offense with a different element at receiver – size. The UCF alumi’s prospect profile is good, with a 34.4-percent (65th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating, 103.1 (77th-percentile) Speed Score and 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If Brown misses extended time, this may be the last opportunity to acquire Davis at value.

Brandon Aiyuk is less widely rostered than Justin Jefferson but unlikely to be available in deep leagues. He is a stronger add than Jefferson and Tee Higgins this week, because he would likely operate as the 49ers’ No. 1 wide receiver until Deebo Samuel is 100-percent back online.

Travis Homer is a more versatile and explosive back than Carlos Hyde and received the first backfield snap in a clutch situation after Chris Carson went down on a dirty play at the end of Seattle’s epic Week 3 win. Like Myles Gaskin last week, Homer is this week’s signature darkhorse free agent fantasy running back and a high priority add. Because he did not pop in the score, he can be added for a small percentage of most FAAB budgets.

Alvin Kamara’s monster usage and raw talent has lifted him above every other player in fantasy football through the season’s first three weeks. The Saints have fed him as much as he can handle with Drew Brees’ arm shot and the offense already missing their only true playmaker on the outside in Michael Thomas. He’s Christian McCaffrey in a better offense, and at a reduced cost. A Week 4 contest against the Lions is a lock button spot for fantasy’s most involved running back.

Kyler Murray is locked onto DeAndre Hopkins, targeting him heavily on the outside in both short-yardage situations and downfield. Hopkins faces the defensively challenged Carolina Panthers next week, who surrendered 330 passing yards to Justin Herbert in his second ever NFL start. Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler destroyed the Panthers in the middle of the field. Deploying Hopkins in the slot would be a successful operation. With unmatched usage, he is a premier pay-up candidate in DFS.

Through two favorable matchups Mitchell Trubisky currently ranks No. 15 among qualified quarterbacks in Fantasy Points per Game, just outside QB1 territory. He’s recorded 14 (No. 6) Red Zone Attempts, eight (No. 9) in Deep Ball Attempts, and 8.7 (No. 10) Air Yards per Attempt. Through two weeks, the Atlanta Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 97 passing attempts and Bengals tight ends have drawn a 21.6-percent Target Share. With C.J. Uzomah out for the rest of the regular season, Drew Sample walks into a prime opportunity to soak up most, if not all, of that target share. Remember, this Bengals regime spent a second round pick on Sample in last year’s draft. Through two games, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

A bet on Bryan Edwards is a bet on one of the highest ranking prospects in this year’s rookie class via the Breakout Finder. A player with the second-highest Breakout Age in the entire database and a 48.4-percent (94th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating against SEC competition. If he puts up a usable fantasy performance while facing Stephon Gilmore’s coverage, we will unequivocally know that he’s for real.

With Jerry Jeudy a game-time decision for Denver’s Week 3 contest against the Bucs, it’s time to stash K.J. Hamler, who tied Jeudy for the team lead with seven targets last week. Having Jeff Driskel under center lowers his ceiling for now, but Courtland Sutton being unavailable for the rest of the year raises his rest-of-season floor, and Drew Lock’s eventual return will raise the sky-high ceiling back up. He also draws the Jets in Week 4, if exploiting winnable matchups is something you’re interested in.

Christian Kirk is due for a smash week. He has a healthy 35.3-percent (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share with 132 (No. 9) Unrealized Air Yards. Basically, he’s seeing deep looks but he and Kyler Murray have failed to connect on many thus far. If not Week 3 because of injury, Kirk will have a smash game soon. Murray ranks No. 8 with nine Deep Ball Attempts but just No. 28 with a 22.2-percent Deep Ball Completion Percentage. This will change.

Through two games, the Colts have averaged 37.0 (No. 16) Team Pass Play Per Game. Mo Alie-Cox has a 23.5-percent (No. 24) Target Rate, indicating he may be a focal point of the gameplan against the Jets early on before Game Script comes into play. Through two weeks, his eight targets rank No. 3 among active Colts pass-catchers. In addition, his 11.3-percent (No. 24) Target Share ranks No. 2, while his Target Rate ranks No. 1. Basically, he isn’t running empty routes.

The Eagles are winless and Carson Wentz has had a forgettable the start to the season, averaging 12.7 (No. 27 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points per Game. Philadelphia’s signal-caller is throwing the ball at an average of 42.5 times per game and has 512 (No. 18) passing yards, however his efficiency metrics are concerning. If these downward trends continue into Week 3 versus the Bengals defense, the alarm bells might be at full volume.

Ben Roethlisberger looks to have found a new favorite target in Diontae Johnson. Despite ball security issues to start each of his first two games, Big Ben has not shied away from targeting the sophomore receiver. Interestingly, Roethlisberger mentioned in an interview earlier this week that his trust and confidence in Johnson was still growing. If this connection still has room to grow, it may not be long before Johnson’s dynasty stock truly skyrockets.

The Bengals have given A.J. Green a 23.4-percent (No. 21 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and a 44.5-percent (No. 6) Air Yards Share. He’s given them a whole eight (No. 32) catches for 80 (No. 60) yards. Green’s efficiency metrics have been the stuff of nightmares. Pick almost any metric. If you’re on Green’s page, it’s going to say he’s closer to No. 100 than even No. 50. He’s standing on the edge of a fantasy cliff and Tee Higgins’ presence will be the final nudge. 

Josh Jacobs has been as good as the tape grinders have billed through two games this year. He even has seven (No. 11) catches for 63 (No. 10) receiving yards on a 14.5-percent (No. 6) Target Share. He also currently leads all running backs with 23 Evaded Tackles and has a 39.0-percent (No. 9) Juke Rate. People will still be anchored to draft capital early in the season. Take advantage and abandon ship on lesser backs such as Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook in favor of Jacobs.