Fantasy Football

Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs will certainly get his fair share, but Emmanuel Sanders behind him is in line to eat on this generally pass-heavy Bills team. Sanders had 6 (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) Deep Targets and 335 (No. 8) Air Yards entering Week 4. Josh Allen likes to air it out, so expect Sanders to see plenty of run in what should be another high scoring affair Sunday night.

Pat Freiermuth and Eric Ebron only have a combined 19 targets out of Big Ben’s 170 pass attempts through four weeks. The Broncos, outside of five receptions to Mark Andrews last week, have not allowed more than three receptions to a tight end group so far this season. Freiermuth will have a hard time breaking out in Week 5 facing a good secondary with a small Target Share.

A bet on volume is a shaky bet. But Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ran a route on 82-percent of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks last week. Now, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are out. After the Jets this week, the second-year WR has the Jaguars on tap. That Jaguars defense rank third-to-last in Pass DVOA. I’d flex Westbrook-Ikhine in both contests. Brown and Jones are no bets to make it back for Week 5. Let’s stash the Titans’ No. 1 WR for the foreseeable future before the price goes up.

Kadarius Toney totaled season highs last week with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton leaving the game early. The rookie WR totaled a 67.7-percent Snap Share, leading to 29 routes run. Toney earned three targets, more than in his first two games combined, and parlayed the opportunity into a 2-16 receiving line. While that’s nothing that’ll get the group chat talking, he has a first-round pedigree. This week, he’ll audition himself for a bigger role. And if he sticks, he has a juicy matchup against the Cowboys next week.

Darnell Mooney is inside the top-30 among qualified wide receivers in both Air Yards Share (33.5-percent) and Target Share (22.9-percent) for the Bears. Remember last week when Marquise Brown dropped two touchdowns against the Detroit Lions? Mooney is an equally as fast WR (4.38 40-Yard Dash, 95th-percentile) with better hands (two career drops on 117 targets).

Nelson Agholor has an 84.8-percent (No. 24) Snap Share, 114 (No. 7) Routes Run, and a 95.0-percent (No. 18) Route Participation. Fantasy football is about opportunity and being involved on offense is the first step to productivity. With 6 (No. 5) Deep Targets and a 14.0 (No. 21) Average Target Distance, he has a defined role on offense too.

The words “reliable weekly fantasy starter” have not often been associated with Mike Williams. Thus far, the 2021 weekly fantasy point totals for the fifth year wideout read: 22.2 (WR14), 22.1 (WR10), and 33.2 (WR1). His 31 (No. 6) targets have him second on the team, just two behind perennial target hog Keenan Allen. No longer just a deep threat, Williams gains 12.57 Lifetime Value points to move up six spots to WR26.

Allen Robinson is off to a disappointing start to the 2021 season. Regardless of matchups, his quarterbacks have delivered a 4.64 (No. 71) Target Quality Rating and a 76.2-percent (No. 50) Catchable Target Rate. The Bears’ offensive game plan has produced a league-worst 4.8 Yards Per Attempt. It may be time to worry if Robinson can’t get on track when the Lions visit Soldier Field in Week 4.

The Cincinnati Bengals have a major edge in talent in this matchup. Joe Mixon is seeing elite opportunity metrics and is set up to smash. While Joe Burrow’s lack of pass attempts limits his ceiling, he’s talented enough to support more than one fantasy-relevant receiver.

The Urban Meyer experiment is failing miserably. Trevor Lawrence is struggling, D.J. Chark is still unreliable, and Laviska Shenault is being misused. The only saving graces from this offense have been James Robinson and Marvin Jones.

The Rams are balling right now, and you want to chase talent in those situations. Robert Woods is the talent to chase. His usage has been decent and improving since week 1. Variance will soon turn in favor of Woods and bring him the production we’ve seen in years past.

The prototypical alpha is the most secure profile at the wide recevier position. Allen Robinson fits that profile, and has the target share to prove it. We’ve seen the Bears offense struggle, and Robinson was able to rise above the ash heap. He is the locked-in first read in an offense that will be playing plenty from behind. Robinson finds himself with a soft upcoming schedule as Justin Fields and the Bears offense attempt to grow.

Chuba Hubbard is easily the most exciting and valuable addition for this week if he is available in your leagues. Hubbard filled in for Christian McCaffrey when he went down, rushing 11 times for 52 yards. He also caught three passes for 27 yards. He has a great shot at being an every-week RB2 for as many weeks as CMC misses. Last season, Mike Davis was one of the better waiver wire additions all season; history could repeat itself. Hubbard has an ample opportunity.

Dalton Schultz had a career night on Monday Night Football with six catches for 80 yards and two TDs in Dallas’ 41-21 beatdown of Philadelphia. He led the Cowboys in targets, and Dak Prescott seems to have faith in him. Schultz, not Blake Jarwin, is the Cowboys TE to roster. We want exposure to the Cowboys offense, and Schultz is available in many leagues.

Devonta Smith is the clear No. 1 WR for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. The “Slim Reaper” had a 51.2-percent (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share and a 26.8-percent (No. 16) Target Share through the first 2 games of the season and saw 6 of 38 team targets Monday night. While his week 2 and 3 lines did not look great, chase the targets. Against a bad defense in Week 4, Smith has a good chance to put up numbers similar to his Week 1 output.

Rondale Moore was a popular waiver add the last couple weeks. However, the speedy and agile receiver only saw two targets for two receptions and a yard last week. Moore has taken the majority of his snaps out of the slot. However, Christian Kirk is a major slot receiver for the team as well, and Moore hasn’t overtaken him yet, with just a 42.1-percent (No. 95) Snap Share prior to Week 3’s dud. Apart from top-15 WR Chris Godwin, the Rams have not allowed many yards to slot receivers.

This week the Philadelphia Eagles travel to play their hated divisional rival Dallas Cowboys for Week 3’s MNF game. The game will be a measuring stick for how good the Eagles’ offense is this season. For the Cowboys, they need to prove that their road victory over the Chargers and near upset of the Buccaneers was not a façade.

Are you ready for Devonta Smith week? The rookie has 237 (No. 11) Air Yards, a 51.2-percent (No. 6) Air Yards Share, and a 26.8-percent (No. 16) Target Share. Dallas is going to allow Air Yards. It’s a guarantee that a large portion will go to Smith. I see Pollard and his 18.8-percent Breakaway Run Rate and 47.8-percent (No. 4) Juke Rate scoring more fantasy points than Elliott on MNF.

The key to finding receivers rostered in less than 50-percent of leagues with startable upside is to follow the Air Yards. This week is no different when it comes to my two start recommendations. Emmanuel Sanders has 235 (No. 12) Air Yards, with 145 (No. 7) being Unrealized Air Yards.

Regardless of whether Antonio Brown plays or not, Mike Evans is a sit for me in Week 3. Opposing tight ends are targeted 19 times in two games against the Rams’ defense. Moore leads the Jets with 173 (No. 32) Air Yards, with 134 (N0. 9) being Unrealized Air Yards. The Broncos defense, thanks to Callahan, take away the check-down options and allow an Average Target Distance of 10.8.