Fantasy Football

Aaron Jones and D’Andre Swift are both efficient runners PPR monsters. They both currently sit in the top 10 in Target Share and Yards Created. Jones is the RB2 version of Swift, as Swift is seeing absurd touch totals. Both players, at their respective price, can turn your team from a dark horse to a championship favorite.

Jarvis Landry and Brandon Aiyuk are two receivers who are potential league winners. With the Browns now without Odell Beckham, Landry is seeing alpha-level Target Shares and will be the main focus of the passing game. Aiyuk has turned his slump around in a major way and now won’t have Deebo Samuel alongside him for the foreseeable future.

Hunter Renfrow has been a consistent slot target for the Raiders, with at least 5 receptions in all but two games this season. He has been a quiet producer, entering Week 12 with a 19.3-percent (No. 6 among qualifying WRs prior to week 12) Hog Rate and has finished as a top-24 fantasy WR in six games. With a high pass volume and the potential loss of Darren Waller, Renfrow has an opportunity for another big fantasy game this week against Washington’s middling secondary.

Josh Jacobs has averaged less than 4.0 yards per carry this season, entering Week 12 with 3.7 (No. 52 prior to Week 12) True Yards Per Carry. He has not hit 100 yards rushing in a game this season, exceeding 50 rush yards just three times. Washington has not allowed an individual runner to have 100 yards rushing in a game yet this season. The Raiders pass more than they run, and with Washington being a bit more bendy through the air, don’t expect Jacobs to have good fantasy opportunity this week.

Jamaal Williams should be a strong start at RB this week with the potential for 20-plus touches. When D’Andre Swift went down, Williams handled 15 carries and caught all five of his targets this past week. While Williams is no Swift, he can handle a large workload. The Lions offense limits Williams, but he should be a low-end RB2 this week.

DeSean Jackson sent a reminder to all football fans that he can still get behind the defense for a long TD. He saw four targets and turned those into three catches for 102 yards and a TD. If you like revenge game narratives, Jackson faces his former team in Washington this week.

The Seattle Seahawks are desperate for a turn-around. Russell Wilson hasn’t been the same since his injury, but Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf have still churned out usable weeks. Against a poor Washington defense, this team is set up for the perfect rebound game.

The Washington Football Team are on a 2 game win streak. Taylor Heinicke looks to rely on Terry McLaurin and his now healthy receiving core to put up another solid fantasy performance. In the ground game, Antonio Gibson is finally healthy and once again dominating backfield touches.

Dynasty managers that had the privilege of starting Austin Ekeler versus the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11 were rewarded with a career best 41.5 point fantasy day (RB2). Eleven weeks into the 2021 campaign, Ekeler is averaging 22.1 Fantasy Points Per Game (RB3) – his most productive fantasy season to date. The 26 year-old UDFA earns 15.59 Lifetime Value points to rise three spots to RB11 in dynasty.

Back from injury to face the Atlanta Falcon’s in Week 11, Damien Harris had company in the Patriots backfield. He will need to be productive in Week 12 to keep rookie Rhamondre Stevenson from earning an even greater share of the Pats backfield. On the season, he trails Stevenson in both Juke Rate and Yards Created Per Touch. Harris loses 22.96 Lifetime Value points to drop seven spots to RB31. Stevenson climbs up to RB34.

Week 12 showcases two games that feature two teams with seven or more wins. The Tennessee Titans facing the New England Patriots makes one of the said matchups. The other is this article’s featured showdown: the 7-3 Los Angeles Rams traveling north to take on the 8-3 Green Bay Packers. One point separates these two in the eyes of Vegas, who view the Rams as the favorite. This matchup intrigues from all angles, so analyzing it is a must.

The Packers are an hour away from punching the clock on their night shift, while the Rams woke up from a good night’s sleep. The states of these two teams are polar opposites after the Rams came off a bye last week, while the Packers are battered and bruised with their bye next week. Vegas likes the Rams as one-point favorites, and it’s hard to find fault in their process.

Ja’Marr Chase, a prospect with a near flawless college profile, demonstrated that he can not only win, but excel when targeted downfield. He averaged an absurd 21.2 (96th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPC, while pacing the NCAA and SEC in receiving yards. He scored 20 receiving touchdowns at age 21 as a true man among boys and was drafted No. 5 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. The NFL industrial complex provided the biggest signal, that hey, this guy may just be good at football.

Ja’Marr Chase is 6-0, ran a 4.39 (95th-percentile) 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and posted a 135.7 (97th-percentile) Burst Score. A prototypical alpha X receiver with a 19.5 (77th-percentile) Breakout Age who posted a 1,780 yard sophomore season at LSU is not the next Justin Jefferson? Those touts were right, he was better than Jefferson in college and now he’s better than Jefferson in the NFL.

Once Antonio Brown and Stefon Diggs found their new homes in Tampa Bay and Buffalo, they thrived with the change of scenery. One would assume Odell Beckham will thrive in the Rams offense, especially after they lost Robert Woods for the rest of the year with a torn ACL. However, I am here to make the argument that it will not be much of a difference.

In negotiations to deal Odell Beckham, make sure you point out his ability to still get open and how he will be a week-winner for their team with his big play potential. Also, argue for Matthew Stafford’s MVP case and how he will feed Beckham now with Robert Woods out. Beckham will be better now that he is out of Cleveland, but that is not a high bar to clear. Leave that headache for someone else and get yourself a second-half rebound candidate.

The tight end throne has been taken for quite some time because Travis Kelce is the undisputed tight end champion of the world. All the talk at the beginning of the 2021 season was between tight ends T.J. Hockenson, Darren Waller, George Kittle, maybe Kyle Pitts, and of course Kelce. Mike Gesicki was so far down that he was an afterthought TE. The truth is Gesicki is now the number one contender for the TE 1 crown. Don’t make the mistake of upgrading him too slowly like many fantasy analysts do.

My prediction is Mike Gesicki will gradually fall down the ranks this year as Miami’s quarterback struggles will continue. He will finish anywhere from No. 5 to No. 10 in fantasy scoring, but his ADP won’t reflect his true upside. My guess is next year he will be overshadowed by players like T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, and of course Travis Kelce. However, Gesicki will be the best value tight end drafted, and has a good chance to be the best tight end in fantasy football.

Before week 11, Sanders had a 7.9-percent (No. 5 among qualifying RBs before Week 11) Breakaway Run Rate and a 61.1-percent (No. 15) Snap Share. The Eagles have run the ball more in the second half of the season, with at least 30 rush attempts each of their last five games, so Sanders is slated to see more opportunity. The Giants have allowed at least 100 yards rushing to opponents in five of their last seven games this season (with 97 rush yards given up in Week 11).

Despite entering week 11 with an 80-percent (No. 8 among qualifying TEs before Week 11) Snap Share on a team averaging 38.0 (No. 9) Pass Plays per Game, Tyler Conklin averages less than 10.0 Fantasy Points Per Game, outside the top-10 TEs. Behind Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, the Vikings’ pass game becomes murky. While Conklin gets his share of targets, he does not produce enough to be a weekly start in leagues with 10 or less teams. The 49ers have allowed more than 40 receiving yards to opposing TEs just once since Week 1. Conklin is in for a rough matchup.