Fantasy Football

Round 5 represents the lowest ADP for Odell Beckham since his rookie season. Fantasy players should have some trepidation, but the risk is baked in when he is drafted at this part of the draft. The talent and athleticism and ability to absolutely dominate a game are still there. He is the clear cut No. 1 target in Cleveland and could be lethal in their play action passing game. A vintage OBJ season is in play for 2021.

Sony Michel’s ADP has risen steadily since he was traded to the Rams, but there’s no world in which he should still be selected over 80 spots on average after Darrell Henderson. The Rams have never trusted Henderson in a lead back role, and Michel has been better than people think. Even if they split work relatively evenly, you can take advantage of what is shaping up to be one of the year’s biggest value plays if his ADP continues to rest in the double digit rounds. 

Bill Belichick, who seemingly hasn’t liked a running back since LeGarrette Blount, actually leaned on Sony Michel early and often. In 37 regular season NFL games, Michel posted 17 games with more than 15 carries and put up five regular season 100-yard rushing performances. In his four career playoff games, Michel averaged over 100 total yards and 1.5 TDs on 22 touches per game. At crunch time, Bill and Tom Brady powered on their Sony.

While we expect Darrell Henderson to be the Rams’ RB1 in 2021, the team’s actions say we should proceed with caution. When Henderson had his first sign of injury this summer, they jumped on an opportunity to pay a hefty price for a recent first-rounder who has performed well in the NFL and was drafted just one year before Henderson. Go ahead and draft him, but be careful if you’re going to commit to him more than the Rams have been willing to do.

Ja’Marr Chase broke out during his sophomore season with a 19.5 (77th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age. This mirrors Odell Beckham’s 19.8 (68th-percentile) BOA. Beckham put together back-to-back top-five WR seasons in PPR during the 2015-16 seasons. Target competition is a valid concern for Chase that Beckham did not face during his ascension. A takeaway from Chase’s 2019 collegiate season, though, is that he has the talent to maximize his targets. Chase’s ceiling is multiple top-5 PPR seasons and his floor is a touchdown-dependent WR2.

Devonta Smith must be the outlier of outliers to succeed at the NFL. At 6-0 and 170-pounds, the concern with Smith is BMI. We don’t have any players in the database anywhere close to Smith’s size. His Best Comparable Player, Joe Horn, had 30 pounds on him. Does this make Smith a bad prospect? Absolutely not. The goal with analytics is to find ways to limit mistakes. Simply put, we have not seen players with his analytical profile succeed in the NFL. Therefore, it’s impossible to take anything away from his Best Comparable Player comps.

While many stacks have seen their ADP soar in recent weeks, the premium Eagles pairing is going in the other direction (QB11 and WR36). Fade the noise. There’s no denying Jalen Hurts’ accuracy issues last year, but he flashed the ingredients of a fantasy superstar last year. Devonta Smith is a substantial upgrade to Philadelphia’s barren wide receiver room. He’ll also give Hurts a reliable target he never had last year, and bump the remaining Eagles weapons into more favourable roles.

At QB14 in ADP, Joe Burrow’s injury risk is fully baked in being drafted behind less mobile quarterbacks Tom Brady and Mathew Stafford, who project to throw less often. With no meaningful WR4 or tight end to draw targets from the WRs, Tee Higgins could replicate or improve upon his 20.2-percent (No. 36 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and parlay this into 120-140 targets. Given the breakout potential of second year WRs, Higgins is the preferred stacking partner in Cincinnati.

A.J. Dillon exploded in Week 16 last year, logging 22 touches (21 carries) for 129 total yards and two touchdowns, which ranked him No. 6 among running backs with 25.9 fantasy points. He’s a physical freak that will have weekly viability given the Packers’ usage trends in their backfield. Even if he mostly garners rushing work, he could provide efficient rushing production. If we add the possibility of receiving work, he looks like THE top zero RB target in 2021. 

We expect D’Andre Swift to improve on his 157.9 (No. 28) Weighted Opportunities in 2021, especially in the passing game with Jared Goff at quarterback. That said, don’t forget about Jamaal Williams, who should garner enough opportunities to have a weekly receiving floor similar to his time with the Packers. Often when building zero RB teams, we’re looking for a back with pass-catching ability and a weekly floor, and Williams checks both those boxes.

Saquon Barkley ranks in the 96th-percentile or higher among qualified running backs in PlayerProfiler’s listed workout metrics, except for an unrecorded Agility Score. He has a 149.8 (99th-percentile) SPARQ-x score and a 32.2-percent (74th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, showing his all-around abilities as a young back still on his rookie deal. He even has the No. 1 Breakout Rating of all time on Breakout Finder.

Barkley uses his speed to elude tacklers and create yards in the open field. He had at least 1.87 (top 10) Yards Created Per Touch in both the 2018 and 2019 seasons. In 2019, he impressively accomplished this feat with a 63.2-percent (No. 47) Run Blocking Efficiency. The New York Giants’ offensive line struggled to get Barkley holes to run through, so he created his own yards. Despite the offensive line’s shortcomings, he still finished with 18.8 (No. 7) Fantasy Points Per Game in 2019. His talents are among the best that the NFL has seen in recent years. Do not waste them by letting him fall in drafts.

Miles Sanders is not viewed as a bell cow RB, but his 76.3-percent (No. 6 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share and 77.0-percent (No. 3) Snap Share are indicative of a lead back. J.K. Dobbins had much lower Opportunity and Snap Share metrics in 2020, and he is being drafted nearly a round and a half ahead of Sanders. The discount Dobbins, will save auction gamers dollars and provide a higher floor and ceiling with his superior opportunity metrics.

Auction drafters must target Tee Higgins over Mike Evans not only because he delivers the same bang for less buck, but also because the opportunity has room for growth. Higgins is playing alongside an unproven rookie and Evans is playing next to a veteran that commanded significant target volume in 2020. Draft Higgins over Evans for upside and savings!

In most years, we can safely ignore the NFL schedule. And most of your leaguemates are doing the same this year. However, you can get a step up on your league now by constructing you rosters and aligning your FAAB strategies with the 2021 NFL’s schedule changes and bye weeks.

All else being equal, there’s value to be gained in planning ahead. You certainly can’t afford to wait until Week 7 approaches to start looking for replacements. Not only will you have to dump quality players off your bench, as many as one-third to one-half of your league mates will doing the same. As Week 7 approaches, FAAB prices will outweigh the values, and this will be for guys you might actually start only once.

If you’ve spent any time on fantasy football Twitter, you’ve seen the Elijah Moore hype. He is a fantastic route runner, extremely quick, has great hands, put up insane college production, and is being praised more and more by Jets camp every day. In his final year in college, Moore had two drops on 102 targets, and his 86 receptions in eight games broke A.J. Brown’s single season record at Ole Miss.

Chris Evans has a great 132.4 (94th-percentile among qualified running backs) Burst Score and 10.99 (92nd-percentile) Agility Score, and he can be used on third downs. He’s also a part of an offense which is trending upwards. At best, I’m hoping he can be a Giovani Bernard-lite over the next few years and provide depth, but players being drafted here are all long shots to ever become relevant.

The data shows that the hit rate for RBs with first round ADPs is strong. Since 2016, 64-percent of RBs with first round ADPs finished as top-12 fantasy backs, and 25-percent finished in the top-3. Every top-3 RB since 2016 scored over 300 fantasy points for their respective season. The juice is worth the squeeze, especially in a shallow format such as the ESPN PPR default leagues.

Hero RB strategy lends well to drafting a top RB because it gives gamers the best chance to get a stable RB1 or a game changing top-3 RB. Drafting two RBs with first round ADPs is viable in shallow formats like ESPN PPR default. It’s possible to spend 50-percent of your total budget on two RBs with first round ADPs and still construct a winning roster. Hitting on both of RBs puts you on cruise control to the playoffs.