Fantasy Football

The Cardinals face the Cowboys this week in the game with the highest total on the slate. Despite this, Kyler projects to go slightly overlooked. Since returning from injury, he has two top six finishes but also two finishes outside QB12. The matchup is also intimidating on paper against the Cowboys defense. In the absence of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk takes on a centerpiece role in the Cardinals offense. Yet DraftKings still prices him below $6k. Take advantage of this yet to be priced-in role change.

Budget stacks are a recurring theme in this series. In an age where daily fantasy gamers are more than happy to pay up to $7-8k for QBs, there’s significant opportunity in paying down to boost the rest of the roster. That leads us to Davis Mills. The rookie QB for the Texans has played surprisingly well this year considering a near league worst situation he’s in. With a collegiate profile indicative of a deep field threat, evidenced by his 19.7 (93rd-percentile) Yards per Reception, Nico Collins has high splash play potential creating a low bar to return value.

Jaylen Waddle has become the focal point of this offense, and he’s done this at a historic pace. The record for most receptions by a rookie is Anquan Boldin with 101 over 16 games. Waddle currently has 96 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) receptions, with two games left in the year. He is a strong WR2 and should be in all lineups for championship weekend.

It’s trending that we see more of Jeremy McNichols or even Dontrell Hilliard lined up as a receiver, or in on passing situations together to help fill the void that the team has. Nobody on Earth can replicate what Derrick Henry does on the field, but D’Onta Foreman has done an admirable job along with his teammates of creating a patchwork rushing attack, it’s just incredibly difficult to trust them on championship Sunday.

It is Playoff season when it comes to the National Fantasy competitions. If you aren’t currently competing in these national competitions, you are missing out on one of the most fun and possibly most profitable aspects of Season-Long Fantasy Football. We are going to be looking at the “Mini Majors.” These are national competitions with overall prize pools ranging from $150,000-$500,000 for modest buy-ins of $200-$350.

One of the biggest things I noticed when looking through Chad Schroeder’s TFC team was that he used both waiver runs each week. He also commented on both teams about a key player he picked up on those second runs. That is a huge free nugget we got from the best fantasy football player in the world. Pay attention to those second waiver runs. Keep hammering each and every waiver wire of the season from Week 1 until they lock you out and throw away the key.

In the nine games Dalvin Cook has started and finished, he has registered at least 20 touches in eight. He has an 80.9-percent (No. 3 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share and averages 5.0 (No. 25) Yards Per Touch. He was activated from the COVID-19 list on Wednesday, meaning he now has the golden ticket to swinging fantasy title games this week against Green Bay’s second-worst run defense per Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA metric.

Since Week 15, Aaron Jones has 25 carries and eight targets compared to Dillon’s 16 carries and four targets. Jones is almost doubling Dillon in routes run in that span too, with a 29-16 advantage. Dillon still saw 12 touches last week to Jones’ 17, and is as good a candidate as there is to punch in a touchdown at the goal line, but he is not a player that must be inserted into lineups anymore.

Last week, Ronald Jones put up 16.1 PPR fantasy points in place of Leonard Fournette and has had back-to-back games of 2 receptions and 70+ scrimmage yards. Jones is the clear lead back for Tampa with Fournette out and now sees an excellent matchup in Week 17 against the Jets. Expect him to run all over the Jets while seeing a few targets out of the backfield this week.

The Ravens have allowed 100 yards rushing to an opponent in one of their last seven games and allow less than 4 yards per carry. Sony Michel is coming off a huge game where he saw 28 touches. With Darrell Henderson banged up, Michel figures to carry the RB load, but opposing RBs have seen over 20 touches just twice in Baltimore’s last twelve games. Expect the Rams to air it out with Stafford this week, rather than run it up the gut against the likes of Patrick Queen and Brandon Williams.

Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with a thumb injury. Trey Lance would be an instant fantasy upgrade due to his rushing ability. A healthy trio of George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and “The Terminator” Deebo Samuel would provide him with great weapons. This week, Lance could help Superflex players win leagues with a great matchup against Houston.

With Buffalo decimated at WR, Isaiah McKenzie stepped right into a significant role and did not disappoint. He finished with 11 catches on 12 targets with 125 yards receiving and a TD. This week, expect another high Snap Share and potential for another useful fantasy performance.

The Miami Dolphins are on a six game winning streak and find themselves one win away from defying the impossible and joining the playoff picture. Tua Tagovailoa is on fire and has jumpstarted this offense. Jaylen Waddle looks to continue his impressive rookie season while DeVante Parker continues his career resurgence. Finally, Duke Johnson has finally been given the workhorse role he deserves.

The New Orleans Saints have been trending down week after week, and this matchup won’t get any easier for them as they are down to starting rookie Ian Book at quarterback. The rookie is unlikely to spark the passing game, making Marquez Callaway and Tre’Quan Smith very avoidable. On the flip side, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will be relied on heavily for offensive production, giving Kamara RB1 upside.

A fourth round selection in the 2021 NFL Draft (No. 112 overall), Amon-Ra St. Brown is hitting his stride of late. The 22-year-old, has seen 35 targets in the last three games – a team-leading 34.3-percent Target Share over this span. He finished last week with 23.5 fantasy points (WR6); a mark reached twice in the last three games. Trending up, St. Brown accrues 14.57 Lifetime Value points and jumps 10 spots to WR44 in the dynasty rankings.

Darnell Mooney finds himself in the midst of a late-season slump. He is still earning a healthy 24.9-percent (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share, but he is delivering WR2/3-level production averaging 11.7 fantasy points (WR33) this season. Better days are ahead for the talented speedster out of Tulane, but for now he loses seven spots and 15.06 Lifetime Value points to fall to WR43.

Cleveland has no choice but to ride Nick Chubb down the stretch if they want to save their season. With all that ails their passing attack, Chubb is who the offense is built around and needs to be emphasized during the next three weeks. Even though his receiving work lags behind, he’s a lock for a heavy workload and gets the No. 25-ranked run defense according to Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA metric. He is a locked and loaded RB1 this week.

What more is there to say about Davante Adams? His dominance is so overwhelming that the Baltimore Ravens and their depleted secondary resorted to having *two* defensive backs line up against him before the snap. He will likely see plenty of action against Cleveland’s Denzel Ward, who is PlayerProfiler’s No. 3-ranked cornerback. But as he’s proven time and time again, he is matchup-proof and will produce for fantasy gamers no matter the circumstance. Like Thanos, Adams is inevitable.

The San Francisco 49ers are rolling and looking to ride into the playoffs on a high note. Jimmy G has been playing solid football, leading George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to fantasy success. Jeff Wilson showed he’s more than capable of filling in for Elijah Mitchell. They come into the day obvious favorites against the struggling Titans.

The Titans are depleted and falling apart. The team has been ravaged by injuries, forcing D’Onta Foreman and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to take on significant roles. A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both look to return tonight, but their upside is limited with how badly Ryan Tannehill has been playing. The Titans find themselves, rightfully, as home dogs in an uphill matchup.