Fantasy Football

If you couldn’t get enough of the PlayerProfiler vs. RosterWatch rivalry, we’re back with the second installment in the Summer of Collaboration series of fantasy football mock drafts with RosterWatch. Did the Underworld successfully defend the mock drafting crown? Did anyone plant any outrageous flags? Who actually wins in a mock draft of any sort? If there is a way to win, you can bet that the six mock drafters on the Underworld side of the ledger will ride PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics all the way to a successful defense of the mock drafting heavyweight championship of the world.

The running back “dead zone” is dead. Dead zone running backs have traditionally been those backs drafted in rounds three through six of fantasy drafts the past two seasons. But a shift is about to take place. The RB Dead Zone will be the fertile ground out of which multiple RB1s will be harvested in fantasy leagues in 2022. Start adjusting your draft plans now.

If you are really concerned about missing out on a first-round running back, keep in mind Leonard Fournette, Tony Pollard and A.J. Dillon will also still be available after round 6 (past the dead zone). There are plenty of upside RB’s available in rounds 3-8 in 2022, leaving you tons of flexibility to not take running backs in rounds 1-2. The RB dead zone is the place to be in 2022! IT’S ALIIIIIIVE!!!

While Denver’s WRs rightfully deserve upgrades in all formats, discourse over the increased value of Albert Okwuegbunam came into question. Comments in the Twitterverse claimed that, historically, Russell Wilson hasn’t utilized his tight ends. The intent of this first edition of Fantasy Football Mythbusters is to debunk this theory. We’ll do this by deriving an outcome deemed as possible, likely, or unlikely based on historical usage. 

Throughout his career, Russell Wilson has had an aging Jimmy Graham, a misused Zach Miller, and mediocre talent at the tight end position. Regardless of their skillset, if the tight end is running routes, then Wilson will be sure to give them an opportunity to make a play. Combine this with Albert Okwuegbunam’s ability to gain yards after the catch, and comments from head coach Nathaniel Hackett about using him in a hybrid role to take advantage of his receiving skills, and he is a TE1 lock on a per-game basis.  

Welcome to the latest and greatest arena where fantasy football takes thrive or die. A place where fantasy football propositions can gain validity or be thrown by the wayside. This is the second installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.

Allen Robinson, Russell Gage, and Chase Edmonds should all be targeted in 2022. Given their talents and their new situations it will. Despite not being their new teams’ primary pass catchers, Gage and Robinson will get fantastic quarterback upgrades. And Edmonds is looking like he will get the first crack at being the Dolphins number one running back. It’s good process rostering any of these three players in the 2022 season. 

Dalton Schultz had a breakout season last year, where he finished as the No. 3 overall tight end. In PPR, he averaged 12.3 (No. 5 among qualified tight ends) Fantasy Points Per Game. That inspires confidence as two of Dallas’s receiving weapons left the team this offseason. The logical conclusion is that Gallup and Schultz will be the 2a and 2b receiving option in this offense next season with both getting an uptick in Target Share.

Former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is heading to Miami along with speedster Tyreek Hill. McDaniel spent one year as offensive coordinator, and in that year, created a breakout season for Deebo Samuel without hurting the production of George Kittle. The Dolphins wide receiver corps Hill and Jaylen Waddle is the fastest one-two punch in the league. Mike Gesicki, scoring in the 95th-percentile or higher in all workout metrics, is no slowpoke either.

From 2020 to 2021 Ezekiel Elliot has seen a decline in Opportunity Share, Yards Created, and Dominator Rating. Zeke’s Opportunity Share fell more than 14-percentage points and for the first time in his entire career he finished outside the top 25 in Dominator Rating. The tailback is becoming less and less of a factor in the passing game. He may have been the RB7 overall but he was RB15 on a points per game basis. Get out now before the bottom completely falls off.

Not only has Miles Sanders witnessed a downtick in opportunities, he was also less effective when he had the ball in his hands. He has fallen outside the top 30 running backs in PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings. This may be the last chance to move on from the Philly tailback. Will team builders get 100-percent return? Absolutely not, but in short order, his value may drop to zero. So get out now!

Although many people love trade negotiations, others get intimidated and are risk-averse; fearing that their return may be perceived as the “loser” in the deal (which in dynasty is not a simple evaluation given that situations change every year, injuries happen, and values fluctuate). Thanks to smart people and technology, there are now numerous sites that host their own versions of trade calculators based on each site’s dynasty rankings.

Trading away young players that are perceived to be more valuable than what their profiles dictate, in exchange for depreciating assets with proven production, allows for more creativity in formulating trades with the additional assets acquired, or to rebuild a roster by acquiring future draft picks on top of proven talent that are past the age-apex curve.

The dreaded Tight End Wasteland is a term that has become all too familiar in fantasy football. It’s a place you never want to be, but also a place that can be hard to avoid. We can’t all be lucky enough to land a set-and-forget tight end. Even in eight-team leagues, chances are there’s at least a couple teams disappointed in their tight end week-to-week. So let’s take a look at some prime candidates for a solid season to help us avoid the tight end wasteland next year.  Let’s go ahead and start with the studs that you’ll have to draft a little earlier, but for good reason.

Mark Andrews was as consistent as it gets, and when he hit his ceiling, he won your week. Expect more of the same this season as well. Andrews led the Ravens, and the entire position, with a 26.6-percent Target Share last year. He’s the alpha receiver on the Ravens offense. With a healthy Lamar Jackson, there’s no telling how much higher Andrews’ ceiling can go. Two years younger than George Kittle and four years younger than Travis Kelce, Andrews has firmly set himself up to be a valuable fantasy tight end for years, and is PlayerProfiler’s TE1 in all fantasy formats.

In this edition of Thinking About Thinking (Ranges of Outcomes), I continue my series addressing probabilistic fantasy football strategy. Each article I will unpack ways our brains work in irrational ways that create value in your fantasy football leagues. Last week I discussed analytical prospect models, and the importance of humility when evaluating rookies. If you haven’t yet, make sure to check that out to get a feel for this series!

In a ceiling scenario, Tua Tagovailoa is a top-12 quarterback this year with his new weapons, entrenching himself as Miami’s franchise quarterback. On the other hand, he could fail to meet expectations and carry precarious job security into 2023. Schrodinger’s Tua is both alive and dead, but his cost resides in purgatory. His market value is a compromise position between two plausible outcomes which attempts to balance them appropriately.

Fantasy football is obsessed with “alpha” receivers who look dominant and can make monster contested catches. However, this provides an opportunity to find cheaper alternatives that will outperform ADP and ultimately help win leagues. Targets score fantasy points. And these receivers have “alpha” production, while coming at “beta” price points. 

Brandin Cooks is consistently overlooked in the fantasy football community, and size is a big reason. 2021 was quietly a career year for Cooks, in which he posted highs in targets and receptions. Davis Mills also flashed in his rookie season, and will pay dividends for both the Texans offense and Cooks if his development continues in 2022. It also helps that Cooks is an elite-athlete who has 4.33 (98th-percentile) speed and a 98th-percentile Agility Score.