Matchups Start/Sit

Remaining injury-free to this point of the season has allowed Will Fuller to reach his fantasy football potential. His dominance is represented in his +26.7 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium and 28.4-percent (No. 18) Dominator Rating. Sidney Jones’ sample size is too small for his stats to qualify among cornerbacks, but his 14.5 Yards Per Reception Allowed is a problematic stat when matching up with a deep threat such as Fuller.

A touchdown in Week 2 prevented Marvin Jones from scoring under 10.0 fantasy points in each of the first five games despite Kenny Golladay missing the first two. Since then, he has scored 13.0 or more fantasy points in both of his games and had his two best showings as it relates to Air Yards. Fortunately for Jones, Minnesota’s primary coverage for him this week is Kris Boyd, who draws the start with the Vikings missing most of their cornerbacks due to injuries.

Since Dak Prescott’s devastating injury, Amari Cooper has not topped 62 Air Yards in a game, and now third-string rookie Ben DiNucci is the starting quarterback. With DiNucci under center, the Cowboys have the second-fewest Implied Vegas Points (18.00) this week. Darius Slay ranks in the top-10 with 9.4 (No. 5 among qualified cornerbacks) Yards Per Reception Allowed and 5.8 (No. 8) Yards Per Target Allowed.

Volume is key to fantasy production, but Keenan Allen’s -29.2-percent (No. 97) Target Premium, 7.27 (No. 48) Target Accuracy, and 81.6 (No. 81) QB Rating When Targeted reveal that he benefits more once he has the ball in his hands rather than catching longer passes that defenses fear. While he may see the same target volume he’s become accustomed to, Bryce Callahan’s 1.20 (No. 5) Fantasy Points Allowed Per Target will make it a disappointing performance.

Coming off a No. 4 finish at his position on a Bengals team averaging 46.0 (No. 2) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and with a league-leading 293 pass attempts, Joe Burrow is a suitable bye-week replacement for Deshaun Watson or Kyler Murray. Tennessee’s defense ranks No. 17 in DVOA and has allowed at least two passing touchdowns to signal-callers in every game since Week 2. You can do worse than Burrow.

A bet on Denzel Mims this week is a bet on talent. Mims finally made his pro debut last week, totaling a 97.8-percent Snap Share, seven targets on 26 routes run (26.9-percent Target Rate), and four receptions for 42 yards. The Jets average 37.7 (No. 12) Team Pass Plays Per Game, while the Jets-Chiefs implied point total sits at 49 AND the Jets are 19.5-point underdogs. This indicates the potential for a decent amount of scoring and that the Jets will have to pass to keep up.

Despite an in-season coaching change, Calvin Ridley’s role in Atlanta’s offense remained unchanged. He ran 38 routes last week, which was the second-most he has run in a game this season, and finished as WR10 despite teammate Julio Jones receiving more targets and finishing as WR2 on the week. Jeff Okudah is the equivalent of an open door to wide receivers he covers. On the season, he has allowed 294 receiving yards on 138 Routes Defended.

Matt Rhule, the former Temple coach, has unlocked his former Temple player Robby Anderson, who has excelled in his high-volume role this season. Wide receivers have had their way against Patrick Robinson in his two games with New Orleans. Last week, he struggled to contain Jalen Guyton and his 4.44 (83rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-Yard Dash speed. Good luck stopping Anderson and his 4.41 (91st-percentile) 40-Yard Dash speed.

The opportunity has always been there for Logan Thomas. The former quarterback has recorded a 92.5-percent (No. 4 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share, a 17.1-percent (No. 11) Target Share on a team averaging 40.3 (No. 7) Team Pass Plays Per Game, a 95.4-percent (No. 2) Route Participation mark, and a 17.3-percent (No. 68) Target Rate. Adding Thomas is a bet on Kyle Allen to consistently target him with catchable passes. If you need a tight end, you can do worse than Thomas against the Cowboys.

Through three games, Trey Burton has totaled 16 (No. 30) targets on 58 (No. 43) Routes Run, good for a 27.6-percent (No. 25) Target Rate. While the Colts average 34.7 (No. 27) Team Pass Plays Per Game, the team ranks No. 16 in tight end targets. That isn’t an elite allocation of targets to the position, but it’s enough to keep Burton fantasy relevant if his usage remains comparable after his bye.

The Cowboys average 49.4 (No. 1) Team Pass Plays Per Game with a leaky defense. In fact, they’ve trailed in every game except their most recent entering the fourth quarter. That’s good (or not so good) for a -7.91 (No. 29) Game Script mark, indicating they have to pass and score to keep up. Dak Prescott’s Supporting Cast Efficiency – now supporting Andy Dalton – is a sturdy +5.6 (No. 16), while he graded out with a 90.0 (No. 6) Protection Rate.

Although the Panthers average 37.2 (No. 18) Team Pass Plays Per Game, Teddy Bridgewater has attempted 178 (No. 11) passes. With 1,461 (No. 6) passing yards, Bridgewater may be due for slight positive touchdown regression. He’s thrown only six (No. 22) touchdown passes thus far. The Panthers offense sit No. 9 in DVOA, including No. 10 in pass DVOA, highlighting Bridgewater’s touchdown misfortune.

Pierre Desir’s 92.9-percent Catch Rate Allowed is the worst among cornerbacks that have been targeted more than three times. Wide receivers covered by Desir average 3.14 yards of Target Separation Allowed when the pass arrives at the wide receiver. That will prove problematic for Desir once again this week with DeAndre Hopkins averaging 2.04 (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) yards of Target Separation.

Jeff Gladney is credited with allowing the most yards per route cover (2.46) according to PFF. Tyler Lockett averages 0.54 (No. 14) Fantasy Points Per Route Run and 37 (No. 16) Routes Run per Game. There are 30 cornerbacks with a higher Slot Rate than Gladney’s 25.8-percent mark. Of those cornerbacks, only four allow more than the 14.8 Yards per Reception that Gladney does. Good luck stopping Lockett in the slot.

Speaking candidly, there isn’t a singular thing that Isaiah Ford does great, per se. However, with bye weeks here, he’s a viable bye-week replacement with a floor. He has a 91.4-percent (No. 2 among qualified wide receivers) Slot Rate, an 8.1 (No. 85) Average Target Distance, and zero (No. 119) Deep Targets for the Dolphins thus far. This indicates he has a semblance of a floor, with the majority of his targets occurring near the line of scrimmage.

Playing on an offense averaging 44.2 (No. 3) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and with a respectable 11.1 (No. 49) Average Target Distance, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Olamide Zaccheaus to start converting his opportunities into touchdowns. If Julio Jones is ruled out, it’s Calvin Ridley taking on the opposing defense’s No. 1 corner. That alone opens up softer coverage and potential spots in the defense for Zaccheaus, who has logged 41 (No. 66) Yards After Catch thus far, to exploit.

Averaging 12.5 (No. 26) Fantasy Points per Game, David Montgomery is in line to become a full-time player – 70-percent Snap Share or higher – with a slight uptick in touches. He averaged 14 carries and three targets per game before Tarik Cohen’s injury. Hurting Montgomery’s case, though, is that the Bears rank in the bottom half of the league with 19 running back targets. Montgomery is a volume-based RB2 moving forward. If he can push for 20 touches with Nick Foles at quarterback, his fantasy football outlook is optimal.

Despite the great opportunity, Evan Engram’s production is lackluster. He has a 35-percent (No. 10 among qualified tight ends) Slot Rate with 56 (No. 5) Slot Snaps, emphasizing his passing game utilization. He’s commanded 20 (No. 7) targets on a Giants team averaging 40.7 (No. 7) Team Pass Plays Per Game. Lastly, his Target Share is decent at 18.9-percent (No. 9), though he only has a 17.9-percent (No. 48) Target Rate. Basically, he’s not commanding a dominant share of the targets, nor is he targeted on a dominant rate of the routes he runs.

Kenny Golladay secured a 22.6-percent (No. 20 among qualified wide receivers) Target Rate in his first game back from injury and averaged 2.53 (No. 16) Fantasy Points Per Target. Lattimore allows 18.6 (No. 69) Yards per Reception. On the other side, Golladay averaged 18.3 (No. 4) Yards per Reception last season. It feels weird to say that Lattimore is the cornerback matchup to target here, but his 2020 season has been downright horrible. This is a wheels up situation.

To say that Tavierre Thomas has struggled in 2020 is an understatement. His 23.1-percent Burn Rate is fourth-highest among all cornerbacks, while his 139.1 Passer Rating Allowed is only better than 11 cornerbacks in the league. CeeDee Lamb averages 1.90 (No. 46) Fantasy Points Per Target, while Thomas allows 2.50 Fantasy Points Per Target. Amari Cooper may receive more targets than Lamb this week, but Lamb will do more with each of his targets than Cooper will against Denzel Ward.