Dynasty Leagues

Justin Jefferson has been productive and is clearly locked into the No. 2 wide receiver role in Minnesota. Over four games, he ranks No. 8 among qualified wide receivers with 348 receiving yards and 126 Yards After Catch. From an efficiency standpoint, he has been unreal. He has a whopping 3.70 (No. 1) Yards per Route Run, a 1.95 (No. 28) Target Separation mark, earns 17.4 (No. 1) Yards per Target, and has committed zero (No. 81) drops. With an impressive 21.8 (No. 3) Yards per Reception, the rookie delivers chain-moving chunk plays.

Rookie Darnell Mooney has out-snapped Anthony Miller in three consecutive weeks. In Week 3, they each ran 35 routes and saw five targets. In Week 4, Mooney ran more routes and saw more targets. A possible third-year breakout candidate, Miller’s dynasty value has been trending the wrong way to start 2020. The production needs to live up to the potential sooner than later, or it will be last call for Miller Time.

The future of the Rams backfield remains somewhat murky. Veteran Malcolm Brown is still involved and Cam Akers will eventually return from injury. Even if Akers is able to shed his day-to-day tag, all indications suggest that Darrell Henderson has earned a Week 4 starting role. Whether or not the team returns to a committee approach, Henderson has flashed and shown that he can produce at the pro level. His dynasty stock has risen as a result.

At 6-2, 216-pounds, Gabriel Davis provides the Bills offense with a different element at receiver – size. The UCF alumi’s prospect profile is good, with a 34.4-percent (65th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating, 103.1 (77th-percentile) Speed Score and 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If Brown misses extended time, this may be the last opportunity to acquire Davis at value.

The Eagles are winless and Carson Wentz has had a forgettable the start to the season, averaging 12.7 (No. 27 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points per Game. Philadelphia’s signal-caller is throwing the ball at an average of 42.5 times per game and has 512 (No. 18) passing yards, however his efficiency metrics are concerning. If these downward trends continue into Week 3 versus the Bengals defense, the alarm bells might be at full volume.

Ben Roethlisberger looks to have found a new favorite target in Diontae Johnson. Despite ball security issues to start each of his first two games, Big Ben has not shied away from targeting the sophomore receiver. Interestingly, Roethlisberger mentioned in an interview earlier this week that his trust and confidence in Johnson was still growing. If this connection still has room to grow, it may not be long before Johnson’s dynasty stock truly skyrockets.

A trend that unfolded in Week 1 was Phillip Rivers’ connection with his trusted slot receiver. Lined up in the slot on 55 snaps, good for a 96.5-percent Slot Rate, this receiving weapon now wears the number 15 and goes by the name Parris Campbell. Finishing as the WR27 in PPR leagues, Campbell’s nine targets matched T.Y. Hilton for the most among Colts wideouts. After a strong showing in training camp, a solid Week 1 performance has the former Buckeye’s dynasty stock on the rise.

Harrison Bryant played 31 snaps, good for a 42.4-percent (No. 44) Snap Share, in Cleveland’s Week 1 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He ran a route on 30.8-percent of his snaps and caught one of two targets for five yards. With David Njoku parked on injured reserve, an uptick in Bryant’s usage is on tap. The next three weeks (at minimum) may be enough to put him on the radar of even casual fantasy gamers. Monitor his stock closely and be ready to act.

The poster child for the 2020 sophomore tight end breakout is Green Bay’s Jace Sternberger. There are many intriguing reasons why this is the case. There is the shallow nature of the Packers passing game for a start. The team famously did little to strengthen their receiving corps this offseason, either via the draft or free agency. They signed Devin Funchess, who then chose to opt out of the 2020 season, leaving Davante Adams without any serious competition in the passing game.

Foster Moreau faces significant obstacles to increased playing time in 2019. Though Jason Witten should only last a season in Sin City, while the expected salary cap squeeze in 2021 may impact Darren Waller’s future with the team. The Raiders can release him and save the entirety of his $6.27 million salary for the season. Moreau may be able to make some noise as a touchdown-dependent player in 2020, but he can make the Raiders tight end spot his own in 2021.

At 5-11, 213-pounds, Dare Ogunbowale is a slightly bigger and more explosive version of James White. Both former Wisconsin RBs are featured in their respective passing games, finishing top-24 in Pass Snaps played last year. Ogunbowale made his limited touches count, finishing the year with 6.6 Yards per Touch, 1.32 (No. 11 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, and a +17.2 (No. 19) Production Premium.

Eno Benjamin landed in an explosive Arizona offense that helped three different running backs find weekly fantasy football success last season. The Kliff Kingsbury-coached Cardinals gave high Snap Shares to their starters, with an RB receiving 70-percent or more of the snaps in 13 out of 16 games. Benjamin, whose Best Comparable Player is Duke Johnson, becomes a priority target if the Cardinals again struggle to find a workhorse.

James Conner went down with the entire offensive ship in Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger went down to injury. Mike Tomlin has already come out this offseason stating his belief in a workhorse running back approach, confirming that if Conner stays healthy he can finish as a top tier fantasy back. If he reaches similar opportunity totals to what he saw in 2018, we’ve already seen what he can do when he finished with 21.2 (No. 7 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game.

Chris Carson is an underrated athlete with a 127.9 (87th-percentile) Burst Score and a 120.8 (77th-percentile) SPARQ-x score. While many believed he was more of a plodder, he proved last year that his 2018 metrics were not flukey. He posted a 4.7-percent (No. 17) Breakaway Run Rate, 85 (No. 6) Evaded Tackles, and a 27.0-percent (No. 15) Juke Rate. This behind a worse offensive line that put up a 63.8 (No. 46) Run Blocking Efficiency grade.

Last season, Derrick Henry scored 18 touchdowns for the Titans while leading all qualified running backs with 303 carries and 1,539 rushing yards. PlayerProfiler’s Data Analysis Tool calculates Expected Touchdowns for running backs and Henry had a 7.60 touchdown difference (10.4 expected). A non-factor in the passing game with 25 (No. 49) targets, Henry’s touchdown regression will make it difficult to return value on his first-round ADP.

Leonard Fournette’s 0.90-percent Touchdown Rate is unbelievable for a running back that had 265 (No. 7) carries and 316 (No. 2) Weighted Opportunities. While Derrick Henry lead running backs with 7.60 touchdowns over expectation, Fournette’s 9.40 touchdowns below expected was dead last for running backs. Sure, he won’t see 100 targets in the 2020 season, but the positive regression in the touchdown category will more than make up for the decrease in the receiving game. 

At 6-1 and 205-pounds, Marquez Callaway boasts above average marks in Speed Score and College Dominator Rating. Despite a below average 40-Yard Dash time, the Tennessee product boasted a 19.0 (90th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPR mark. Not to mention a 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. The young receiver has the requisite profile and college production to make noise in the NFL.

There were few better landing spots for JaMycal Hasty; joining a 49ers squad that churns out productive backs, undrafted or otherwise. With Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman leading the way in San Fran, there is little else for depth behind them. A path is clear for Hasty on a team that utilizes the receiving skills of their backs; a specialty of the undrafted rookie. Like Mostert and Matt Breida before him, Hasty looks to make his mark in the city by the bay.

Irv Smith recorded 36 (No. 23 among qualified tight ends) receptions for 311 (No. 33) yards with two (No. 33) touchdowns as a 21-year-old rookie. To put that into context, that’s No. 3 in receptions and No. 6 in yards all time for a tight end at age 21. He was able to accomplish this while having a mere 61.7-percent (No. 34) Shap Share and, per PFF, rush blocking on 43.3-percent of his snaps with a No. 22 grade out of 67 qualified tight ends. 

Tight end is considered the toughest offensive position to come into and produce right away at the pro level. Smith was able to do so as a 21-year-old rookie back-up tight end, making his 2019 season even more impressive. The combination of producing at such a young age, the athletic profile, and the current passing options on the Vikings make him a prime buy candidate before his eventual breakout.