Dynasty Leagues

Todd Gurley’s phone isn’t the only thing falling into the toilet this week. His dynasty stock has also dropped 17.58 Lifetime Value points and five spots, moving outside the Top 30 to RB34 on the dynasty rankings. Recently landing on the injury report with a knee injury and forced to sit out in Week 12, Gurley hasn’t looked close to 100-percent. Here’s to hoping that he can clean it up and get back to scoring touchdowns.

On the season, Jonathan Taylor sits second in rushing yards for rookies behind James Robinson, but his receiving metrics have been equally impressive, if not more. He leads all qualified RBs with 9.2 Yards Per Reception and a 93.9-percent Catch Rate. Taylor is No. 12 at the position and fourth among rookie RBs with 286 receiving yards through Week 14. He gained 9.97 Lifetime Value points to move up four spots to RB4 on the dynasty rankings.

Corey Davis has had a lot to prove this season after the Tennessee Titans declined his fifth-year option. He’s done just that. Other than a catchless Week 9 performance versus the Bears, Davis has recorded double-digit fantasy points in every game played. He’s averaging 15.7 Fantasy Points per Game, which currently ranks No. 16 among qualified wide receivers. The 2017 fifth overall pick gained 17.85 Lifetime Value points to move from WR48 to WR38 on PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings.

Rookie running backs have been breaking out on a weekly basis lately, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s dynasty stock has been sliding. Edwards-Helaire has produced at RB12 or better in only four games this season, averaging 13.9 (No. 18) Fantasy Points per Game. Being the first RB off the draft board last spring (in reality and often in fantasy), expectations were high. Dynasty managers have to be disappointed in what has largely been RB2 production.

Antonio Gibson tops all 2020 drafted RBs with a 122.8 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) Speed Score; top 10 overall on PlayerProfiler.com. It’s no surprise that when he handed a larger workload in Week 12, he produced high-end RB1 numbers. The 22-year-old gains 19.79 Lifetime Value points, the most of all RBs, to move from RB14 to RB11 in the dynasty rankings.

In nine games, Matt Breida has 47 carries for 168 yards, averages 3.6 (No. 62) True Yards Per Carry, and has nine catches for 96 yards with no touchdowns. He now finds himself on the reserve/COVID-19 list. It’s unfortunate timing. The Dolphins are shorthanded in the backfield with Washington now sidelined by a hamstring injury. Breida’s stock continues to fall with his ranking dropping from RB65 to RB80 over the past two weeks.

Injuries have slowed down stud wide receiver Julio Jones and he’s now fallen outside of the Top 40 on PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings. Sadly, Jones lost 13.01 Lifetime Value points to drop seven spots to WR44, making him the biggest WR faller on the rankings. Still capable of producing big weeks, Jones has become a boom or bust option this season. He has three top 12 fantasy WR performances, but also has three weeks outside of the Top 60.

Featured as a market riser back in Week 2, Diontae Johnson’s dynasty stock would have hit WR1 levels long ago if not for a few injury hiccups. Johnson earned a season high 16 targets in Week 11 and has seen over 10 targets in every game that he hasn’t been hampered by injury. Johnson gained 26.14 Lifetime Value points and moved up eight spots to WR18, making him the biggest riser on the dynasty rankings.

At 15.6 (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game, Tee Higgins leads all rookie wide receivers. His 603 (No. 19) receiving yards place him second in receiving on the Bengals and second to Justin Jefferson in the rookie race. Over the last two games, Higgins has seen 18 targets, which is three more than Tyler Boyd and eight more than fading A.J. Green. With Green set to hit free agency in 2021, the Joe Burrow-Tee Higgins combination is an exciting one for dynasty owners.

Philadelphia’s sixth-round free agent sensation Travis Fulgham saw double digit targets from Weeks 5-7. In Week 10, Fulgham caught only one of his five targets for eight yards. Way to dampen the hype. He’s now seen his targets decrease in two consecutive games. During this time, Jalen Reagor, Dallas Goedert and Alshon Jeffery all returned to the lineup. Fulgham sees the biggest Lifetime Value drop for wide receivers, moving outside the Top 50 at the position.

Heading into the 2020 season with Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor on the roster, Nyheim Hines had become the third wheel in the Colts backfield. Fast forward nine weeks and Hines has 28 receptions and 220 receiving yards (both good for No. 8 among qualified running backs) on a 32.5-percent (No. 63) Snap Share. His fantasy output on a week-to-week basis has been up and down, but Hines has produced boom weeks resulting in Top 5 running back performances.

Jonathan Taylor’s dynasty ranking has fallen and is teetering on the edge of the top 10. Since returning from bye, the much-hyped prospect has seen his Snap Share fall from 35.6-percent in Week 8 to 30.8-percent in Week 9. Taylor fumbled his way to a season-low six carries in Week 9. Sure it doesn’t look good right now given the high expectations, but it would be foolish to panic sell in dynasty at this point.

Two inches taller and 20-pounds heavier than his running mate Devin Singletary, it’s become apparent that Zack Moss is the preferred goal-line option for the Bills. This puts him in the low to mid RB2 range. Josh Allen will continue to cannibalize a portion of red zone carries and the timeshare with Singletary isn’t going away. However, Moss’ touchdown upside is music to the ears of dynasty owners.

Seeing his first career start in Week 6, Albert Okwuegbunam filled in for an injured Noah Fant and tied for the team lead with six targets. He converted them into two receptions for 45 yards. Although his opportunity has decreased with Fant back in the fold, he remains on the field, running 14 routes in Week 8 and catching his lone target for a TD. The landscape of the NFL changes fast. The fourth-round rookie is a high-upside TE stash and player to monitor in dynasty leagues.

Despite some spotty quarterback play, Brandon Aiyuk is third amongst rookie WRs with 2.28 (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Target. Through six career games, he has also outperformed Deebo Samuel from a fantasy perspective on both a total and game-by-game basis. With Deebo out for at least the next couple of games due to a hamstring injury, look for Air Aiyuk’s dynasty stock to hit new heights.

Before activating any panic buttons, let’s refresh ourselves on Cam Akers’ prospect profile. At 5-10, 217-pounds, he owns a 39.8-percent (89th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, 10.4-percent (78th-percentile) College Target Share, and a 108.7 (89th-percentile) Speed Score. Yes, he has a three-down profile. At this point, he’s a hold for those who have him in dynasty. Those presented with the opportunity to buy this talented profile at value may be wise to take advantage.

Well, it took a few weeks, but D’Andre Swift arrived in a big way in Week 6. In the tilt against the Jaguars, Swift saw the field on 37.1-percent of the snaps, touching the ball a total of 17 times. He turned this into 123 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. With four targets, he was once again the RB target leader for the Lions. While Adrian Peterson may cap the rookie’s ceiling in the short-term, Swift looks the part of a cornerstone piece of dynasty teams for years to come.

The days of Zach Ertz being a locked-in set-it-and-forget-it TE1 have abruptly come to an end. To make matters worse, he’s now sidelined with a high-ankle sprain. Ertz is without a contract extension, and despite a lack of competition in the passing game, his performance on the season has underwhelmed. For fantasy purposes, an output of 8.0 (No. 25 among qualified tight ends) Fantasy Points per Game is not what managers expected from a player ranked on the edge of the elite TE tier.

Henry Ruggs’ explosive game last week has likely closed any buy-low window, but there may still be a chance to acquire him at value. His 12.0-percent Target Share ranks No. 86 among qualified wide receivers and he’s drawn only 11 (No. 99) targets, but he averages 2.80 (No. 8) Fantasy Points per Target and 3.00 (No. 2) yards of Target Separation. With his blazing speed, big gains tend to happen when the ball is thrown his way. An uptick in targets can result in a real explosion for the Las Vegas Raider.

Through five games, Kenyan Drake has a 63.2-percent (No. 16) Snap Share. He has 85 (No. 5) carries and 16 (No. 14) Red Zone Touches. All this volume has resulted in a frustrating 10.3 (No. 35) Fantasy Points per Game; a far cry from his expected RB1 outcome. As a result, Arizona’s lead rusher has fallen to RB23 on PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings, dropping over 17 Lifetime Value points. His stock is trending down and he is a risky buy-low option. He is more of a sell.