Draft Strategy

A.J. Dillon exploded in Week 16 last year, logging 22 touches (21 carries) for 129 total yards and two touchdowns, which ranked him No. 6 among running backs with 25.9 fantasy points. He’s a physical freak that will have weekly viability given the Packers’ usage trends in their backfield. Even if he mostly garners rushing work, he could provide efficient rushing production. If we add the possibility of receiving work, he looks like THE top zero RB target in 2021. 

We expect D’Andre Swift to improve on his 157.9 (No. 28) Weighted Opportunities in 2021, especially in the passing game with Jared Goff at quarterback. That said, don’t forget about Jamaal Williams, who should garner enough opportunities to have a weekly receiving floor similar to his time with the Packers. Often when building zero RB teams, we’re looking for a back with pass-catching ability and a weekly floor, and Williams checks both those boxes.

If you’ve spent any time on fantasy football Twitter, you’ve seen the Elijah Moore hype. He is a fantastic route runner, extremely quick, has great hands, put up insane college production, and is being praised more and more by Jets camp every day. In his final year in college, Moore had two drops on 102 targets, and his 86 receptions in eight games broke A.J. Brown’s single season record at Ole Miss.

Chris Evans has a great 132.4 (94th-percentile among qualified running backs) Burst Score and 10.99 (92nd-percentile) Agility Score, and he can be used on third downs. He’s also a part of an offense which is trending upwards. At best, I’m hoping he can be a Giovani Bernard-lite over the next few years and provide depth, but players being drafted here are all long shots to ever become relevant.

Michael Carter likely has a defined role with the Jets, where he will get a fair share of touches and passing down work. In a timeshare or ambiguous backfield, I like to grab the running back with pass-catching ability. If the team projects to pass a lot (either philosophically or due to not being good), that player will be on the field and won’t be game-scripted out of opportunities. Carter has a better chance to be a solid RB2 in 2021 because of his likely participation on passing downs.

According to David Lombardi at The Athletic, Trey Sermon will be used to “soften defenses” as a way to keep Raheem Mostert healthy. He believes that Sermon will start most games but Mostert will lead the team in rushing yards. This does not sound like a league-winning-upside situation that fantasy gamers are looking for in the middle rounds of their drafts. It sounds more like a situation where the young guy is being used to sacrifice his body so that the veteran can shine.

Michael took advantage of the Cam Akers injury news, jumping all over Darrell Henderson in Round 6 after starting out with an Anchor-RB approach. Pairing Henderson with Saquon Barkley at pick No. 69 could prove to be the pick that puts O’Connor ahead of the field. Henderson is now going off the board almost two rounds earlier at pick 46.3, ahead of Miles Sanders, Travis Etienne, and Mike Davis.

Currently going off the board at pick 116.0 on Underdog at QB14, Joe Burrow was stacked with Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon at pick No. 75, off the board at QB7. Feeling a surge at QB, Chris Buonagura reached for the Cincinnati stack. One can only wonder if he would have made it back in Round 8.

Carson Wentz’ injury provides the perfect excuse for the Colts to toss the 2021 season, maintain the roster, and look forward to 2022. Jacob Eason is projected to begin the season as the starting quarterback, and Wentz’ chance of having an efficient 2021 plummets. Even when he returns, there’s a strong chance his foot injury affects his footwork and mechanics. This is a serious problem when banking on a strong bounceback to his once-MVP form. This season is lost for Colts, and fantasy expectations should be throttled across the board.

T.Y. Hilton’s ADP will freefall due to his age, but he still offers a decent fantasy floor. He can be a “safe” late teens pick in Best Ball. For redraft leagues, his lack of upside makes him a soft Flex option. The chance of a Michael Pittman breakout puts his workload at risk, and poor offensive efficiency lowers his touchdown upside. Hilton should be valued as a fringe WR6 with many reasons to see a decline. Don’t bet on a full on breakout for Pittman this year, but expect him to eat into Hilton’s workload.

Six wide receivers were taken in the first seven picks of Round 2, with Zach Wilson being taken at the 2.03 to break that run up. I don’t love reaching on Wilson here because he is currently parked at No. 25 overall in our rookie rankings. However, I love Jaylen Waddle at the 2.01 and Terrace Marshall at the 2.05. These two receivers are jumping into roles with high target potential in 2021.

There were seven running backs that were taken off the board in Round 5, including Chris Evans, Kylin Hill, and Khalil Herbert. I love all three, and think they can see playing time in 2021. My favorite pick of the last round has to be Ihmir Smith-Marsette. The Vikings do not have a clear WR3 and I predict that ISM will see lots of targets as long as defenses are focused on Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

As far as fourth round running backs, it can be argued that Josh Jacobs, who often falls into the fifth round, provides the best value compared to similarly drafted players in Mike Davis, Travis Etienne, and Myles Gaskin. His locked-in goal line usage can lead to explosive, week-winning games. And his guaranteed 13-17 carries per game will buoy his floor, meaning he is a safe RB2 with top-15 upside.

Jacobs has historically thrived despite a crowded backfield and a weak line because of the insane number of opportunities he receives. While Kenyan Drake’s addition will likely take some touches away, in a 17-game schedule and with the league increasingly adopting a committee approach, this dampening effect will be minimal. Jacobs will continue to be a talented, volume-driven runner behind a line which is sneakily better than the unit rolled onto the field last year. 

There’s always the chance that a fear-based run wipes out more of a position than expected in a given SFB11 draft. This is why adaptation and improvisation are the words of the day. Though you’ll want to end up with one of our CORNERSTONE QBs if possible, it will be easier to overcome a run on elite QBs than it will to overcome a run of elite TEs, mainly due to the sheer volume of points being given up when passing on an elite option.

Eight quarterbacks were selected in the first round of this exercise. All of whom have some Konami Code to their game. And all of whom we’ve identified as the difference-making QBs we need to target in most seasonal league formats. But not all of these QBs should be considered first-round SFB11 values over certain skill position players given the structure of the rules. In fact, SFB11’s scoring settings boosts players like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins.

Zach Wilson is an NFL starter from day one on an ascending Jets offense supported by a revamped supporting cast featuring former first round pick Corey Davis and rookie Elijah Moore. Mac Jones has already narrowed the gap between himself and Cam Newton such that the two are reportedly in a full-blown QB competition to start training camp. It should not surprise anyone if the 2021 season ends and either Wilson or Jones are the highest valued player taken in the first round of this mock.

Jacob Harris has received some buzz lately, converting from wide receiver to tight end. He makes for an intriguing dynasty practice squad stash in the event he is able to make the conversion. Another player’s positional development that will be interesting to see is Demetric Felton. Cleveland’s rookie running back played in both the slot and behind the line of scrimmage in college. He may have a quicker path to fantasy relevance if he converts to wide receiver.

Any pick you make in earlier rounds has ramifications for later round selections; this is part of the opportunity cost. If you take Josh Jacobs at pick No. 45 as your RB3, this makes later round options such as Gus Edwards, Zack Moss, or A.J Dillon less impactful to your team. You become more likely to forgo them for receivers. If Jacobs is your first or second running back it’s more justifiable, but it becomes a question of floor vs. ceiling, and you are choosing the wrong answer.

There are several rushers with youth, pass catching and RB1 upside going rounds three through six in 2021. With two elite RB classes, 2017 and 2020, still at peak value, top end talents are being pushed into the dead zone. Gone are Leonard Fournette, Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. Enter explosive options such as Miles Sanders, D’Andre Swift, and Travis Etienne.