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Upside Plays

NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks for Week 10

by Dookie Hogue, November 13, 2021

Game-log bros might fade the Colts after seeing the Jags skunk the Bills in Week 9 but don’t be worried. The Jaguars 49-percent Pass Success Rate allowed (No. 3) and No. 32 ranked Pass DVOA is the path of least resistance for a Colt’s team with a high 29 point implied team total (No. 4). The Jaguars are allowing 21.4 DKPt to quarterbacks (which is also our median projection). Stack Carson Wentz with Michael Pittman with a James Robinson runback to be unique.

Chris Godwin gets the PFF No. 1 graded WR/CB matchup facing the Football Team defense. The issue here is his foot injury that has caused him to miss practice all week. He plays in the early set of games though, so we’ll know ahead of time whether to pivot. If he goes, he’s near a lock play given the matchup and game total (30.5). If he misses, Mike Evans is a very strong play.

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks for Week 9

by Dookie Hogue, November 5, 2021

With the news that Aaron Rodgers will miss Sunday’s game after testing positive for COVID-19, Jordan Love becomes our Upside Finder’s top play at quarterback. Love checks all the boxes we love in an upside-streamer: he’s bargain-priced, has a great matchup, and has a solid supporting cast. Near the minimum price, his $4400 tag only requires him to score around 18 DKPt for tournament viability. This value also opens up pricey spend-ups at other positions as well.

Having the Broncos stack not pan out last week would dissuade some from chasing matchups but I love pain. The Dolphins rank dead last in Passing Yards Allowed and Sack Percentage (304 Passing Yards Per Game/ 3.58-percent Sack Rate). Brandin Cooks gets one of the best matchups on the slate yet projects under 2-percent ownership. His 41.9-percent Air Yards Share leads the league at the position and his 29.2-percent Target Share is also good for No. 6. My stack preference here is a Texans skinny stack with a Mike Gesicki runback.

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks for Week 8

by Dookie Hogue, October 30, 2021

Here’s Jeudy! Well, hopefully! Jerry Jeudy looks to be on track to play Sunday in his first game of action since being injured in Week 1. Although there isn’t much to go on as far as his metrics (for this season) we do know he led all Bronco receivers with a 21.2-percent Target Share in 2020. We also know his opposition this week is playing really bad football.

Josh Allen checks in as our top ranked quarterback and looks to be it at the position. Priced up to $8,100 (as he should be), Allen is in a fantastic spot facing the Miami Dolphins. The Bills have the slate’s highest implied team total (31.5) and one of the best matchups for quarterbacks to boot. No clowning around, pair him with his favorite target, Stefon Diggs, who’s seeing a massive 26.4-percent (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share.

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks for Week 7

by Dookie Hogue, October 23, 2021

DeAndre Hopkins certainly deserves a mention given his team’s massive team total (32.25) against his former team. Hopkins has yet to put up a 100-yard game with a touchdown but that is well within his range of outcomes. Kyler Murray’s proclivity to spread the ball around has rightfully scared off some fantasy gamers from paying up for Hopkins. However, he edges out his teammates with a 20.8-percent Target Share and also separates himself with his touchdown production.

Patrick Mahomes posted his highest yardage total in Week 6 and looks to pick up where he left off for Week 7. Of the highest-totaled Week 7 games, the Chiefs/Titans game has the closest Vegas point spread (5.5). The game itself has the highest game total (57.5) and seems the likeliest for a shootout (or whatever it’s called when you’re having to keep up with Derrick Henry).

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks for Week 6

by Dookie Hogue, October 16, 2021

Patrick Mahomes’ league-high 16 Passing Touchdowns matches up well against the Washington defense. Washington and Kansas City rank No. 4 and No. 5 respectively in Pace of Play this season, so this should be an up-pace game as well. The alluring stacking option here is the Mahomes double stack with Tyreek Hill/Travis Kelce, who combine for a whopping 50.7-percent Target Share. The field probably won’t want to pay all the way up at these positions, so that should help drive down ownership. The Chiefs have a slate-high 31 Vegas implied team total.

Mark Andrews is a shocking value play after eviscerating the Colts in Week 5. His $5,200 salary doesn’t seem to match up with his elite usage. His 23.0-percent (No. 3 among qualified tight ends) Air Yards Share, 24.51-percent (No. 2) Target Share, and 86.82-percent (No. 2) Route Participation is top-notch. The opposing Chargers’ elevated situation neutral Pace of Play (No. 5) and offensive success has forced teams to pass the ball more. The Chargers are No. 10 in aFPA and tied for the most touchdowns allowed to tight ends (4). If you fade Andrews, you’re just kooky.

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks for Week 5

by Dookie Hogue, October 8, 2021

Prescott has tossed ten Touchdown Passes (No. 3), seven of which have come in the two games. His 78-percent True Completion Percentage (No. 3) is quite impressive as well, especially at 33.25 Attempts Per Game. The Giants have allowed 7 Passing Touchdowns (No. 5) and 23.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (No. 10). It’s time to go back to Dak.

Dalton Shultz is a nice pivot off the chalky Dallas receivers. The Prescott/Shultz stack is an interesting pairing considering Shultz’ low 6.3-percent projected ownership. Shultz is coming off back to back games seeing Target Shares of 28 and 37.5-percent.

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks for Week 4

by Dookie Hogue, October 1, 2021

After burning countless parlays in back to back weeks, the Chiefs look to get right this week with a visit to Philadelphia. Patrick Mahomes has yet to pay off his exorbitant price tag in recent weeks despite throwing for at least three passing touchdowns in each start. Mahomes’ 8.0-percent Touchdown Rate, 313 Passing Yards Per Game and nine passing touchdowns all rank top five at the position. Jalen Hurts should also do enough to keep the game competitive.

Alvin Kamara is always in play. His 77.6-percent (No. 6) Opportunity Share and 23.0-percent (No. 1) Target Share are elite. His opponent this week, the Giants, have allowed the second most receiving yards to running backs this season. You need some Kamara exposure.

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks For Week 3

by Dookie Hogue, September 25, 2021

Some good chalk I’m feeling this week includes rostering Kyler Murray at quarterback. It may seem like an obvious play because it is. He has been the QB2 and QB1 on back to back slates but projects as only the seventh-highest owned quarterback. Murray being the QB1 after two weeks isn’t as much a surprise as the way he’s put it together. It seems whether by matchup or game plan, the Cardinals have been willing to let Murray sling it.

The Podfather expects big things out of T.J. Hockenson this season and I’m expecting big things this week. Playing on a Lions team with fringe-NFL receiver talent has benefited Hockenson and given new teammate Jared Goff a reliable target. Goff has looked his his way often especially around the goal line, where Hockenson is tied for the second most Red Zone Targets among tight ends.

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks For Week 2

by Dookie Hogue, September 17, 2021

Going back to the well with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins should pay off in Week 2. Only Jameis Winston (legit shocker) threw for more Passing Touchdowns than Murray in Week 1. Priced up as the most expensive quarterback and wide receiver pairing, here’s a situation where paying up to be contrarian could be the separator needed to bink.

The Cowboys/Chargers game will be popular and for good reason. Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert ranked second and fourth in Attempts Per Game after one week of action (47 and 40 attempts respectively.) The games’ slate high 55 point implied game total tells a story that Vegas expects another shootout too. Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper lead their respective teams equally each with a 28-percent Target Share. This makes for a logical stacking combination.

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NFL DFS DraftKings GPP Picks For Week 1

by Dookie Hogue, September 10, 2021

While I’m high on Ryan Tannehill, Kyler Murray’s upside shouldn’t go overlooked in this potential shootout. Murray’s 67-percent Red Zone Completion Percentage and 24.4 Fantasy Points Per Game are good for third-best among qualified quarterbacks. The Titans low-key allowed the second-most touchdown passes (only the Lions allowed more) to opposing quarterbacks last season (36).  

The Falcons and Eagles allowed the most and ninth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season. Devonta Smith’s 34.6-percent Target Share at Alabama last year gives us a clear run-back option on the Eagles side of the ball. The Matt Ryan/Calvin Ridley/Kyle Pitts/Devonta Smith stack is very intriguing.

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