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Prop Plays

Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 10

by Cornhole God, November 13, 2021

A bounce back week is on tap for the Bills when they face off against a “division rival” in the Jets and Emmanuel Sanders will continue to be heavily involved in this get right right matchup. He has made the most of the opportunity with 17.5 (No. 1 among qualified WRs) Average Target Distance and 17.1 (No. 6) Yards Per Reception. Most importantly, he has hit 52 receiving yards in six out of eight games this season.

Seattle’s horrific rush defense will yield over 44.5 rushing yards to A.J. Dillon this weekend. Dillon has at least a 30-percent Snap Share in five games since Week 4, and he has hit this line in four out of five of those games. If this trend continues, then I would take the OVER on this line up to 46.5 rushing yards.

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 9

by Cornhole God, November 6, 2021

Put some respect on Patrick Mahomes and take the OVER on his passing yards line this week. My confidence in this take is driven by the sheer passing volume that the Chiefs have displayed this season. Mahomes ranks top-3 in many passing opportunity metrics. This game has a decent points total of 48, so Mahomes will continue to air it out to stay competitive because their defense has no chance of slowing down anything.

I love this Zack Moss line because the Bills are 13.5 point favorites against the feeble Jaguars, so game script will naturally lend to running back volume for Buffalo. In fact, Buffalo has a +8.65 (No. 1) Game Script score, so leading early and often is certainly in the cards this weekend. Additionally, Buffalo runs the ball at a high-rate, with 28.7 (No. 9) Team Run Plays Per Game. All things considered, Moss will receive ample opportunity to compile rushing and receiving yards in a cake matchup.

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 8

by Cornhole God, October 30, 2021

At first glance it seems crazy to take the UNDER on Joe Burrow, who just torched the Ravens for 416 yards. Not only does Burrow rank bottom-4 with 30.4 Team Pass Plays Per Game, but also the Jets have been playing from behind more than any other team, shown by a -11.65 Game Script score. Consequently, the Under on a passing yards line is encouraged when the opposing team has a poor offense. 

Jalen Hurts will put the team on his back by effectively moving the ball through the air and on the ground against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Hurts has a high-rushing floor, accounting for 44.19-percent of the Eagles’ rushing yards. Also, his 361 rushing yards ranks No. 2 among all QBs this season. His rushing ability will be on full display against a Lions defense is bottom-12 in rushing yards allowed per game. And when it comes to defending the pass, the Lions aren’t much better, allowing the 8th most passing yards to offenses through Week 8.

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 7

by Cornhole God, October 24, 2021

You can almost set your watch to Lamar Jackson generating more than 300 yards per game because he has done it in five out of six games this year. He’s doing it through the air (281.0 passing yards per game) and on the ground (65.3 rushing yards per game).While last week’s shocking blowout victory over the Chargers stifled his production, I believe that a divisional matchup with the Bengals will highlight premier Lamar Jackson.

The Cordarrelle Patterson experience is just getting started, so strap in and go hard on this soft line. Patterson averaged 11.25 Total Touches Week 5. Enter Week 6, where his Total Touches spiked to 23. If this usage continues, then he will smash with his 7.1 Yards Per Touch (No. 1 among qualified RB’s) and Underdog Fantasy will have to set his line closer to 90 yards for Week 7.

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 6

by Cornhole God, October 16, 2021

Mac Jones and the Patriots will look to move the ball through the air against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the second-most passing yards through Week 5. And throwing the ball isn’t out of the ordinary for Mac Jones, exhibited by a 38.4 (No. 9) Team Pass Plays Per Game average. Jones has also been fairly productive, with 742 (No. 12 among qualified quarterbacks) Completed Air Yards and an excellent 8.2 (No. 1) Accuracy Rating. I expect this to be a sneaky shootout.

Take the over on a wide receiver who is masked as a tight end. Mike Gesicki’s position-leading 133 Slot Snaps and 140 (No. 6) Routes Run are metrics indicative of a wide receiver, not a tight end. Additionally, his 17.0-percent (No. 2) Hog Rate means that he is receiving a high Target Rate in relation to his Snap Share. Therefore, when this “TE” is on the field, he is being utilized in the passing game more often than not.

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 5

by Cornhole God, October 9, 2021

A.J. Brown’s hamstring looks good for Sunday and so does this line. Jacksonville allows 312.2 passing yards per game, the 3rd most in the NFL. The Titans will look to exploit this, as they run an above average 38.0 Team Pass Plays Per Game (No. 10). Brown will return to an elevated target share, with the absence of Julio Jones, resulting in more opportunities to beat cornerback Shaquill Griffin. Griffin, with his +8.5 Coverage Rating (No. 85 among qualified CBs), is going to get torched by Brown.

Justin Herbert will be tested against Cleveland, a team with a strong defense and an offense that controls the time of possession. The Browns allow only 183.8 pass yards per game and have 14.0 sacks through Week 4, making the case strong to take the under on a passing yards line. Cleveland’s offense will provide a challenge for Herbert to eclipse 292.5 passing yards because they run league high 35.0 Team Run Plays Per Game (No. 1) with a slow 1.87 Pace Of Play, which limits the time of possession and total drives for opposing offenses. I’ll let the Chargers’ strength and conditioning coach cut my hair if Herbert is somehow able to produce over 292.5 passing yards.

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 4

by Cornhole God, October 2, 2021

Jaylen Waddle is primed to deliver free money for those willing to take the Over 49.5 receiving yards line on Underdog Fantasy. Waddle’s Target Share has risen dramatically since Jacoby Brissett became the starting QB in Week 3.

Noah Fant will bounce back when he matches up against a Baltimore team that has allowed the most receiving yards to TE’s through Week 3. Targets will funnel to Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton because the Broncos are without another WR, after K.J. Hamler tore his ACL last week against the Jets.

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 3

by Cornhole God, September 25, 2021

85.5 Receiving Yards is steep, but the 54.5 Over/Under suggests that there will be plenty of chances for Keenan Allen to rack up receiving yards. Allen has amassed 21 Targets (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) and 239 Air Yards (No. 10), so he will have ample opportunity to compile yards against the Chiefs who have allowed the second most yards to offenses through Week 2.

The Law of the Conservation of Targets dictates that Kyle Pitts will see increased target volume with the absence of Russell Gage. Already, Pitts has seen an impressive 18.4-percent (No. 6) Target Share and the loss of Gage will do nothing but improve this volume. It’s hard to imagine Frank Darby or Tajae Sharpe siphoning targets from Pitts, which is why I’m confidently taking the OVER in a game with a decent over/under at 46.5.

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Underdog Pick’em Plays: Week 2

by Cornhole God, September 18, 2021

Noah Fant’s advanced metrics make it impossible to resist the drool-worthy 50.5 receiving yards line on Underdog Fantasy. His opportunity metrics will continue to impress in Week 2 with the absence of Jerry Jeudy. Clearly, Fant’s 83.3-percent (No. 9 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share shows that he is always in the game, and his 28 (No. 7) Routes Run means that he is generating opportunity for targets. Moreover, he delivered with a 22.9-percent (No. 5) Target Share and a whopping 8 (No. 3) Targets!

The under feels so right when you consider Robby Anderson’s Week 1 results coupled with his matchup against the Saints. In the case of his Week 1 performance, he only mustered 3 Targets with a 9.1-percent (No. 84) Target Share last week against the lowly Jets secondary. Targets won’t come any easier this week against a Saints defense that only allowed 186 passing yards to the Packers.

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NFL Monkey Knife Fight Props: Week 13

by Cody Carpentier, December 5, 2020

Typically we stay away from bad teams in props or fantasy, but this week there are only a few strong games to play. In Week 13, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman bring upper 90th-percentile Speed Scores up against a battered Las Vegas Raiders pass defense. Missing star safeties Johnathan Abram, and Lamarcus Joyner, and with both starting cornerbacks riding the injury report each of the last two weeks, expect Mims and Perriman to close in on 200 yards between them.

The Podfather’s Prop of the Week comes from Miami in Week 13, featuring the 2020 NFL Draft’s top two picks from the Dolphins and Bengals. Unfortunately, neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Joe Burrow will play on Sunday. Instead, we will see a battle between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Allen, where The Podfather sees the Dolphins defense putting the clamps on Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. 

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