This is Best Pick ‘Em Player Props: Divisional Round Edition. With just a four-game menu to select from, there’s no excuse to miss out on value. Welcome back to my pick ’em series! In this article, I give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.
In each article, I’ll explain why I see value in the selected props. I will also accompany the article with at least one sample slip. Players who want to tail the picks can head over to the designated platform and join either Underdog or Sleeper using promo code UNDERWORLD for a full deposit match of up to $100. Players who want to get a head-start building their pick ‘em cards earlier in the week can also visit PlayerProfilers’ DFS Dominator tool and navigate over a dozen prop leans by me and some other staff members. Fantasy gamers can do this a day or two before I reveal my final picks in this article. These picks will be located in the Underdog Pick Generator on the website.
Divisional Round Picks
If you are new to player prop pick ‘ems, we recommend learning about them through our beginner’s guide article. It is here where we preview some profitable strategies and when to use insurance.
Our first play contains two legs that are connected in the same game by correlation. We will be utilizing an effective strategy: get positively-correlated legs in a game for the same price as independent outcomes. With legs within an entry positively correlated with each other, we’re making fewer bets to hit two legs than if we bet on two separate independent events. The Underdog play this week targets the first game on Saturday, and the Sleeper play features a massive discount and targets a prop in the last game of the weekend.
Pick No. 1 (Underdog): Travis Etienne (JAX) OVER 2.5 receptions
The Vegas total for this game is set at 52.5, the highest on the NFL slate this weekend. PlayerProfiler Edge, my fellow podcast partners on The Juice, and I all agree that even that line might be too low since we all like this game to be a shootout. Expect offense in this one—personally, I am going after a running back on each team.
Travis Etienne‘s three-plus reception prop is juiced up to -130 on sportsbooks for good reason. He has hit this in only eight of his 17 games with at least a 30-percent snap share but has hit this in four of the Jaguars’ eight losses. The truth about Jacksonville, despite their dominant second half last week, is they will likely spend at least a chunk of this game playing from behind, forcing Lawrence to drop back to pass and take any free yards he can get. This season, the Chiefs have allowed the No. 2-most running targets in the NFL. With the season on the line, Etienne should be guaranteed the snaps and the opportunities to cash this if the expected game script holds up.
Pick No. 2 (Underdog): Isiah Pacheco (KC) OVER 7.5 receiving yards
Only one team has allowed more running back targets this season than the Chiefs—it is the Jaguars. Regardless of the game script, we are aware that the Chiefs like to pass the ball, and if we are to get the expected shootout, multiple Chiefs must eat through the air in order to win this game as the No. 1-seed.
Due to the Jaguars’ top-six quarterback pressure rate, Mahomes should take the free short routes through Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon, but Pacheco’s line is the ultra-friendly one since he has already hit this in five of his six games this season with a snap share higher than 40-percent.
Pick No. 3 (Sleeper): Saquon Barkley (NYG) OVER 0.5 rushing yards
This is not a typo. Sleeper users have a free square available for the Wild Card Round.
If Saquon Barkley rushes for one yard, this leg is cash. I am pairing it with my single favorite pick ‘em prop of the week—the rare one-legger!
Pick No. 4 (Sleeper): Dak Prescott (DAL) OVER 15.5 rushing yards
If you watched the Cowboys demolish the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round, you could sense the adrenaline Dak Prescott played with, whether it be yelling on the sidelines after missed extra points or diving at the end of runs after scrambling out of the pocket. Expect more of the same against arguably the best defensive unit in the NFL this weekend.
Prescott has cleared this rushing line in three of his last four playoff games, seven of his 13 games this season, and four of the six games where he faced a defense that boasts a top ten in quarterback pressure rate. The 49ers fit that description since they rank No. 9 in the NFL in that metric and No. 5 in defensive pass DVOA. Prescott won’t be able to spam CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz all night with ease. He’ll have to find ways to produce even when everybody is covered.
If you want to tail these picks verbatim, these are our recommendations. Play these player prop pick ‘ems:
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Underdog picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
- 0.5u wager on a play with the 2 Sleeper picks; profits 1u if both picks hit
Your entries should look like this.
To read more about wagering player props and how to find edge, you can check out Seth Diewold’s Beginner’s Guide to Prop Betting. To get a deposit match up to $100 on either of these sites, use promo code UNDERWORLD upon entry.