DFS

A.J. Green enters Week 3 of his age-32 season leading the league in Air Yards. Unfortunately, the veteran wide receiver has translated this opportunity to only 8.0 (No. 69 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game. Leading the league in Unrealized Air Yards and ranking No. 1 on this week’s Air Yards Value model, the former Pro Bowler is at a inflection point. Is he still one of the game’s top wide receivers or is he a sell low candidate?

A devastating season-ending injury to Saquon Barkley may result in the Giants airing it out a bit more in the passing game. If they do, Darius Slayton is the clear beneficiary. He continues to lead the Giants in Air Yards and has remained efficient with his opportunities, posting a +29.3 (No. 17) Production Premium, with only 44 Unrealized Air Yards. Still priced below $5,000, Slayton will look to continue his excellent efficiency against a banged up 49ers defense.

Cooper Kupp is affordable with a projected rostership low enough to take down a GPP if he pops facing off against good, but beatable Buffalo coverage. He boasts a 30-point fantasy ceiling and should garner a higher Target Share while Robert Woods squares off against Tre’Davious White. Get exposure to this week to Kupp, who packs tournament-winning upside. He also makes for a solid stack with Jared Goff.

Having Jeff Driskel under center is keeping Jerry Jeudy’s roster percentage down, but the QB is not afraid to sling it. He averaged 9.0 (78th-percentile) yards per attempt in college and registered 12 Deep Ball Attempts in only three games last season. Jeudy’s status needs to monitored due to a rib injury that kept him limited in practice, but it does not appear to be serious. A big-time playmaker at Alabama, his NFL coronation is coming sooner than later.

The Jets have certainly been strong against the run, ranking No. 6 in Defensive Rushing DVOA, but David Montgomery just racked up 127 total yards against this team at 6.7 yards per touch. Jerick McKinnon’s explosiveness in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme should afford premium opportunities for fantasy points. Plus, he’s explosive catching the ball, which will be massive given the 49ers injuries at skill positions. McKinnon looks like a league-winning RB and a week-winning DFS free square.

It didn’t take long for Antonio Gibson to take over the Washington backfield. In Week 2, he received more carries and targets than J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber combined. It should have been this way all along given Gibson’s athletic profile. The man is 6-0, 228-pounds, and runs a 4.39 (98th-percentile) 40-yard dash. He has yet to get to the second level against strong Philadelphia and Arizona fronts, but we’ll see the fireworks soon enough.

The Rams-Bills game projects to be a high scoring affair in which the Rams are underdogs. Given the expected Game Script, Jared Goff will be forced to throw. When he does, Cooper Kupp will be the beneficiary. With Goff and Kupp, we have slight underdogs in a projected high scoring affair who have been efficient to this point with a dream defensive matchup. We get that with low projected ownership and price; Goff is QB19 on DraftKings.

Despite being a rookie, Joe Burrow fits the mold to power out big time fantasy performances for himself and his teammates. His 10 (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) Deep Ball Attempts and 759 (No. 3) Air Yards demonstrate his aggressive nature. It hasn’t materialized in the box score yet, but the volume A.J. Green has seen is undeniable. His 22 targets rank No. 4 among qualified wide receivers, while his 338 Air Yards rank No. 1.

DeSean Jackson was peppered downfield with targets from Carson Wentz in Week 1, amassing 214 Air Yards, the most on the week. Unfortunately, Weintz was sacked eight times and seldom had time in the pocket to allow for downfield routes to fully develop. With right tackle Lane Johnson expected back in Week 2, look for Wentz to finally hook up with Jackson this week.

Fifth-round rookie Quintez Cephus saw a surprising ten targets with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup in Week 1. Seeing 24.4-percent of Matthew Stafford’s passes, Cephus finished No. 9 in the league in Air Yards for Week 1. He also failed to capitalize on the bulk of these targets, finishing with only 7.3 fantasy points. There’s a chance that he was plain unlucky. Priced near the minimum on DraftKings, he’s a worthy gamble to bounce back in Week 2.

It’s happening. Parris Campbell is finally breaking out. The sophomore WR dealt with a plethora of injuries as a rookie, but has finally captured a starting job for the Colts. More importantly, he ran out of the slot on an NFL-leading 55 snaps. With his 4.31 (100th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) speed and 135.5 (97th-percentile) Burst Score, he’s in the ideal role for a fantasy receiver against a Minnesota secondary that should be aggressively targeted in DFS.

The Chiefs have the third-highest implied team total at 28 points. While the Chargers play at a middling Pace (2.40 offensive plays per minute), they’ll certainly need to push it to keep up with the explosiveness of their opponent. This game environment gives Mike Williams a high target floor with a monster ceiling. That’s a pretty good combination for a guy that costs $4200.

With Kenny Golladay ruled out again, the Lions facing a burnable Packers defense in Week 2. Only priced at $3800 on DraftKings, Quintez Cephus is close to a free square this week. While missing his top target and facing mostly positive Game Script, Matthew Stafford still dished out 42 (No. 6) pass attempts. Combine that passing volume with his 8.8 (No. 6) Air Yards per Attempt and we have a QB ready to put up massive numbers.

This week, the Chargers face the fearsome Kansas City Chiefs. Given the offense they’ll be going against, they will have no choice but to unleash Taylor given the likelihood that they face negative Game Script. With Taylor costing only $5300 (QB23) and Williams at only $4200 (tied for WR60 and $1500 cheaper than Keenan Allen), this stack presents maximum upside while unlocking salary for a loaded RB corps.

In Week 1, Davante Adams smoked Minnesota’s young defensive backs for 156 yards on his own. The Packers receivers racked up 315 yards, second to only Atlanta’s 401 yards. Parris Campbell and T.Y. Hilton bring upper 90th-percentile 40-Yard-Dash scores into matchups with inexperienced slow corners. Minnesota’s lack of speed was evident on Sunday, giving up three receptions of over 38 yards. 

The Podfather’s Monkey Knife Fight Prop of The Week comes from Nashville, Tennessee. We see Jacksonville leaning on James Robinson after he received all 16 running back carries for Jacksonville in Week 1. The only UDFA to ever start at RB in Week 1, Robinson averaged 3.9 yards per carry in his pro debut. Expect the Jags to continue their slow-paced offensive approach from Week 1, pounding the rock early to counter Derrick Henry.

Parris Campbell is priced at $4,500 on Draftkings for a matchup with a vulnerable Vikings secondary that was shredded for 364 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1. The Colts are three point underdogs in one of the higher over/under games on the slate. It sets up nicely to be another high-volume game for Campbell and the passing attack. He’s one evaded tackle away from a long score and massive fantasy outing.

When identifying wide receivers with GPP-winning upside, we look for guys seeing downfield and red zone targets. That’s Mike Williams’ game all the way. He perfectly fits the mold of a good tournament play. Los Angeles is an 8.5-point home underdog against the league’s best offense, so Game Script should work in his favor. At $4,200 on Draftkings, we won’t find a much better value in Week 2.

Certain advanced metrics signal that Keenan Allen will rebound this week against the Chiefs. That makes him an appealing play at his price point ($5,700 on DraftKings) and projected low ownership. He played 97.1-percent of the snaps in Week 1 and earned 47.6-percent of the Chargers’ Air Yards. More importantly, Allen’s 75 Unrealized Air Yards ranked No. 7 among qualified wide receivers, signaling that there’s more meat on the bone.

Tyler Lockett sets up as an intriguing mid-tier price point play ($6,300 on DraftKings) who projects to garner slim ownership this week. With 4.40 (92nd-percentile) speed, Lockett lives his life one play away from a touchdown. It’s a big part of the reason he ranked No. 9 in Target Separation last season. It’s also why he shows a penchant for booming and busting, posting the No. 7-ranked Weekly Volatility score (10.8) among receivers with at least 40 catches.