Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 3

by Matthew M. Stevens · Upside Plays

Unlocking the potential of weekly player volatility in daily fantasy football gives gamers a competitive edge. A key metric on PlayerProfiler, Weekly Volatility measures a player’s week-to-week fantasy point scoring oscillation. This article will track the most volatile wide receivers and provide insight on when to deploy them in large-field GPPs. Using matchup and usage data combined with advanced stats to pinpoint the best plays yields the best ROI from volatile players. The focus will be on those highly volatile players with cheap salaries and low projected ownership who make screaming plays with tournament winning upside.

Cooper Kupp Runneth Over

Cooper Kupp’s projected roster percentage on the Sunday main slate figures to be miniscule, but his upside is massive. His price on DraftKings ($6,300) also makes him an enticing play. He comes in under the cost of a trio of studs who figure to be chalky: Tyler Lockett ($6,400), Amari Cooper ($6,500) and D.K. Metcalf ($6,500).

Not your prototypical boom-or-bust field stretcher, Kupp lacks an elite second gear – his 4.62 40-yard dash time ranks in the 23rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers. His 48 (No. 69) Completed Air Yards, at 4.4 per target, reflect that. A different beast, Kupp instead thrives on short and intermediate routes and by generating yards after the catch. His 73 yards after catch, with 6.6 per target, ranks No. 8, and he finished 2019 ranked No. 4.

Cooper Kupp Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile w/ 2020 Game Logs

No stranger to slow starts and fantasy scoring fluctuation, Kupp endured a quiet first two weeks. That fans the flames for a potential ceiling game. His 9.8 Weekly Volatility rating ranked No. 12 among receivers with at least 30 catches last season. A player whose mark is greater than eight is considered extremely volatile. However, he kicked off a streak of dominating fantasy finishes in Week 3 of 2019. Kupp racked up 33.2 fantasy points against Cleveland and then followed that up with two consecutive 26-point performances.

Kupp Draws a Better Matchup than Bobby Trees

Kupp’s matchup against Buffalo’s secondary appears intimidating at first glance: PlayerProfiler’s Strength of Schedule metric rates the Bills as a -2.03 matchup for receivers. Numbers below two indicate a difficult test. However, Kupp ran 65.5-percent of his routes out of the slot last season and continues to fill that role, which is good news. He won’t face constant attention from Tre’Davious White, who works almost exclusively on the outside. White currently sits at No. 8 in PlayerProfiler’s Coverage Rating rankings for defensive backs. Kupp should fare better against slot cornerback Taron Johnson, who ranks No. 24 in Coverage Rating and hasn’t broken up a pass yet this season while allowing one score.

Check out Cooper Kupp on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Kupp is affordable with a projected rostership low enough to take down a GPP if he pops facing off against good, but beatable coverage. He boasts a 30-point fantasy ceiling and should garner a higher Target Share while Robert Woods squares off against White. Get exposure to this week to Kupp, who packs tournament-winning upside. He also makes for a solid stack with Jared Goff.

Hilton, Jeudy Offer Bargain Upside

A pair of upside players who rank inside the top-10 in Unrealized Air Yards offer gamers pivot options with cheaper price tags. T.Y. Hilton ($5,600) and Jerry Jeudy ($5,000) have both registered 133 Unrealized Air Yards through two weeks and have seen 14 and 15 targets, respectively. Neither player found the end zone during the first two weeks of the season. That’s a smoke signal for what’s on tap: boom weeks. Hilton also ranks No. 9 in Air Yards Share and has drawn three deep targets in two games.

Jerry Jeudy Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile w/ 2020 Game Logs

Having Jeff Driskel under center is keeping Jeudy’s roster percentage down, but the QB is not afraid to sling it. He averaged 9.0 yards per attempt (78th-percentile) in college and registered 12 (No. 42) Deep Ball Attempts in only three games last season. Jeudy’s status needs to monitored due to a rib injury that kept him limited in practice, but it does not appear to be serious. A big-time playmaker at Alabama, his NFL coronation is coming sooner than later.