DFS

Damien Harris should be the free chalk play of the week. Monitor his ownership and pivot if it gets too high, but it is rare to see a back priced at only $4,500 when he’s projected for about half his team’s opportunities. He looked awesome on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs and now gets a plus Game Script matchup against the Broncos. Belichick’s RB shenanigans rightfully cause concern, but the upside with Harris is too tantalizing.

Myles Gaskin fell back to earth a bit in Week 4 after looking like a stud in Week 3’s game against Jacksonville. Part of his performance can be attributed to the excellent middle linebacker coverage in Seattle that often limits the receiving upside of RBs and TEs that face them. Still, Gaskin saw 10 of the 16 RB carries and four of eight targets at the position. With excellent overall usage at only $5,500, Gaskin is a great contrarian play in cash or GPP in another tough matchup against the 49ers.

Deshaun Watson has been super efficient aggressively throwing the ball down the field this year. He has recorded 664 (No. 8 among qualified quarterbacks) Completed Air Yards, 8.4 (No. 7) Yards per Attempt, and 8.5 (No. 10) Air Yards per Attempt with a 108.8 (No. 8) True Passer Rating. Good things happen when Watson throws to Will Fuller. In a game projected to shoot out with a 54-point total, expect multiple splash plays from these two.

Joe Burrow’s passing volume makes him appealing week in and week out for daily fantasy. While some will be scared off going against Baltimore, the pass volume and expected Game Script give Burrow a high floor. We’re targeting Tee Higgins this week mainly due to price. He’s $4900 on DraftKings despite taking over WR2 responsibilities. He’s commanded over 100 Air Yards in each of the last two weeks. That downfield target role makes him more valuable in tournament settings as we look to capitalize on big plays.

Without the top two corners in New Orleans, this matchup with the Lions should be a shootout. That will benefit Tre’Quan Smith the most as the de facto alpha receiving option for New Orleans. Detroit ranks No. 27 in Defensive DVOA, so the Saints will have ease moving the ball even with Drew Brees’ deteriorating arm. This matchup is tied for the second-highest total on the slate at 54.5 points, so stacking this game looks viable for tournaments given these affordable prices.

Adam Trautman should slide right into Jared Cook’s role as a big-bodied move tight end having already played out of the slot on 35.9-percent of his snaps this season. He clearly has the talent and will now get the opportunity in an offense commanded by the most accurate QB of all time with a creative offensive play-caller. The game environment sets up well for this min-priced TE and he offers some much-needed salary relief for cash game lineups.

There is nothing like getting some skin on a Sunday or Monday Night Football shootout. The game with the highest point total on the slate is the last game, Atlanta @ Green Bay on Monday Night. Green Bay has allowed five touchdowns to running backs, third-most in the league, while Atlanta has given up four of their own. While Aaron Jones leads the league in rushing touchdowns, the Packers lead the league in scoring, averaging a whopping 41 points.

If Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins can push Russell Wilson to throw more then he needs to on Sunday, 607.5 combined passing yards will be a cakewalk. If you are confident in this game shooting out, you can move up to 663.5 or 720.5 combined passing yards for increased odds. With a Projected 53-point game total, Vegas is predicting a little Fitzmagic in Miami on Sunday. Are you?

Is it really paying up when D.J. Moore is priced at $5,600 or is it just outright theft? The Air Yards Value Score leader entering Week 4, Moore has thus far failed to meet expectations this year, posting only one fantasy WR1 week. With 139 (No. 19 among qualified wide receivers) Unrealized Air Yards, a WR1 week is coming soon. Look for Moore to get back on track this week against the Cardinals.

John Brown has formed a formidable one-two punch with new teammate Stefon Diggs as part of a revamped Buffalo passing attack. While Diggs has averaged 20.6 (No. 6) Fantasy Points per Game to Brown’s 12.4 (No. 37) mark, it’s Smokey who leads the Bills in Air Yards through three weeks. With 171 (No. 11) Unrealized Air Yards, this may finally be the week where Brown outscores Diggs in fantasy points.

DeVante Parker has a mouth-watering Week 4 matchup with the Seahawks, who have become the first team in NFL history to allow 1,200 passing yards in three games. With the Seattle offense playing as well as it has, Game Script should call for heavy pass volume on the Miami side. Parker is only $5,700 on Draftkings in a week where he can feasibly finish as a top-five wideout.

Tee Higgins has seen his Snap Share increase every week and is now a starter in this Bengals offense. He draws a Jaguars defense in Week 4 that allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to set a Dolphins franchise record, completing 90-percent of his Week 3 pass attempts. It might feel like chasing points, but the peripherals say he’s here to stay. At $4,500 on Draftkings, this future alpha is a nice Week 4 value play.

Fantasy football does not have to be hard. David Montgomery ranks No. 1 among this list of 10 players in a volume-driven metric that has no idea Tarik Cohen is out for the season. Montgomery was already seeing over 65-percent of Chicago’s opportunities and will now be a true workhorse. Nick Foles takes over the offense, which should increase the team’s play volume, touchdown potential, and efficiency. This is a rare opportunity to get this large of a projected workload at under $6,000.

Devin Singletary’s Opportunity Share and per-game numbers are inflated by Zack Moss’ Week 3 absence. Yet, Singletary has been much more involved in the passing game this season. The Bills are now among the top offenses in the league, which leaves room for both Moss and Singletary to be productive in their roles. Singletary’s red zone usage compared to Moss is worth monitoring, but Singletary is among the top plays of the week in a plus-matchup against the Raiders.

Six of Marquise Brown’s 18 targets have registered as Deep Targets, which ranks No. 7 among qualified wide receivers. Lamar Jackson has targeted him on six of his nine (No. 17) Deep Ball Attempts. Brown has also earned a 35.1-percent (No. 12) Air Yards Share. He’s seeing the downfield looks and there is still more meat on the bone, evidenced by his 125 (No. 28) Completed Air Yards and 114 (No. 25) Unrealized Air Yards. This dynamic duo looks primed to hook up on a few signature plays.

A.J. Green ranks No. 2 with 386 Air Yards and No. 1 with 283 Unrealized Air Yards, and has drawn seven (No. 4) Deep Targets. His low projected rostership on the main slate makes him a mouth-watering play, and he’s in a much better spot matchup-wise this week, too. Green will continue to see a high volume of targets and find his footing working against rookie C.J. Henderson. This week, he oozes with the potential to eclipse 100 receiving yards and end his touchdown drought.

Has there ever been an RB with a 96.0-percent (No. 1 among qualified running backs) Snap Share that is under $6000? Well, we have that this week in David Johnson. In Duke Johnson’s absence, he has captured an 85.2-percent (No. 3) Opportunity Share. He is also leading the position in Route Participation, running a route on 95.8-percent of Houston’s pass plays. The stars are aligning for Johnson to have a breakout game in Week 4 against the Vikings, and $5600 isn’t much to spend to be a part of it.

If you need to go way down for some salary savings, Myles Gaskin is the best option. After hitting double-digit fantasy points in every game without even scoring a touchdown, he is a high-floor fantasy option in this spot. If he can find the end zone at least once against Seattle, which seems likely given Miami’s 24-point implied team total, Gaskin can be a tournament-winning leverage play against the chalky pass-catchers in this game.

With a middling projected point total, and given the Colts defensive scoring stats so far, many DFS gamers may be scared off this Colts-Bears matchup. However, those defensive stats came against the Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Given the expected volume and increased efficiency in the Chicago passing game, paired with the favorable CB matchup, a Nick Foles-Allen Robinson stack provides tantalizing upside with low ownership.

In what should be a high scoring affair, target Cam Newton (priced at QB10) and both of his leading receivers against the Chiefs for maximum upside. N’Keal Harry and Julian Edelman have combined for over 50-percent of the Patriots Target Share, which increases to almost 60-percent of the red zone targets. That red zone activity combined with Newton’s goal line rushing ability gives this stack a monopoly on Patriots touchdowns.