Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 2

by Matthew M. Stevens · Upside Plays

Unlocking the potential of weekly player volatility in daily fantasy football gives gamers a competitive edge. A key metric on PlayerProfiler, Weekly Volatility measures a player’s week-to-week fantasy point scoring oscillation. This article will track the most volatile wide receivers and provide insight on when to deploy them in large-field GPPs. Using matchup and usage data combined with advanced stats to pinpoint the best plays yields the best ROI from volatile players. The focus will be on those highly volatile players with cheap salaries and low projected ownership who make screaming plays with tournament winning upside.

Keenan Allen Stays On Brand

Keenan Allen ($5,700 on DraftKings) endured a disappointing opener, posting a 4-37-0 line on eight targets. Allen’s dud reflects his volatile nature. His 2019 Weekly Volatility score of 9.6 ranked No. 15 among receivers with 40-plus catches. He recorded seven games with 15 or more fantasy points and five with 10 or fewer, hence his scoring fluctuation. However, certain advanced metrics signal that Allen will rebound against the Chiefs. That makes him an appealing play at his price point and projected low ownership. He played 97.1-percent of the snaps in Week 1 and earned 47.6-percent of the Chargers’ Air Yards. More importantly, Allen’s 75 Unrealized Air Yards ranked No. 7 among qualified wide receivers, signaling that there’s more meat on the bone.

Volume Helps Cure Volatility

Among the top-15 most volatile players in 2019, Keenan Allen registered the most receptions (104) and targets (150). Volume is key for Allen. In the 10 games where he saw 10 or more targets last season, he averaged more than 20 Fantasy Points per Game. With new quarterback Tyrod Taylor under center, Allen saw a healthy eight targets in Week 1. However, he was out-targeted by Mike Williams who had 9, and Hunter Henry also saw eight looks. That casts doubt on Allen’s week-to-week Target Share considering Williams received nine or more targets in three games last season. If that becomes a trend, it would hinder his upside. For now, it’s safe to factor in some growing pains with new quarterback Taylor. LA will scheme ways to get the ball to Allen, who signed a four-year extension worth over $80 million this offseason.

Check out Keenan Allen on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

The Chargers are home underdogs in a game with an over/under of 47.5 and figure to fall behind early against Kansas City. That should mean more volume headed Allen’s way, although the Chiefs secondary isn’t a pushover. Regardless, Allen found success in his past two games against Kansas City, posting 21.1 (No. 9) fantasy points in Week 11 and 23.2 (No. 4) points in Week 17 last season. Given his elite fantasy ceiling of 40 points, Allen offers tournament-winning upside for Week 2 contests.

With Russ Cooking, Lockett Will Feast

Give me the guy who played every offensive snap and saw a 100-percent Catchable Target Rate from the hottest quarterback in football every time. That he also happens to have a 40-point fantasy ceiling is icing on the cake. Tyler Lockett sets up as an intriguing mid-tier price point play ($6,300) who projects to garner slim ownership this week.


Lockett reeled in all eight of Russell Wilson‘s on-point targets, but still enjoyed a mild outing by his standards (8-92-0) against Atlanta. With 4.40 (92nd-percentile) speed, Lockett lives his life one play away from a touchdown. It’s a big part of the reason he ranked No. 9 in Target Separation last season. It’s also why he shows a penchant for booming and busting, posting the No. 7-ranked Weekly Volatility score (10.8) among receivers with at least 40 catches.

Tyler Lockett Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Lockett will need to put his elite talent on display against New England’s stout secondary. The Patriots ranked No. 5 in defensive DVOA after Week 1 according to Football Outsiders. Lockett runs a majority of his routes from the slot, meaning he’ll see a lot of cornerback Jonathan Jones. It’s a fierce matchup to be sure, Jones posted PFF’s tenth-best coverage rating in Week 1, but that’s part of the reason Lockett’s projected ownership is ripe for the picking. The willingness to gamble on elite talent versus elite talent offers a GPP-winning formula.