High Value Touch DFS Index – Week 5

by Mark Kieffer, October 8, 2021

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We weigh targets higher than carries and take it a step further to weigh it higher on DraftKings (PPR scoring) vs. FanDuel (Half PPR scoring). We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

This is going to be an interesting list below because many of the running backs that would score well in this index such as Zack Moss, Jonathan Taylor, Mike Davis, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, are not on the main slate for DFS this Sunday!

Below are the top five values on the High Value Touch DFS Index that are on the Main Slate on Sunday, along with a few players that almost made the cut.

Top 5 Values:

5) Najee Harris: $6,900 on DraftKings, $7,300 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 25.69 (No. 5 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 20.17 (No. 6 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.75 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 86.96 percent

Najee Harris Opportunity Metrics

Najee Harris is someone to have in your player pool each week, especially on DraftKings if he continues to be priced under $7,000. He is almost always on the field; his 95.7-percent Opportunity Share is No. 1 among running backs. Denver does have a top-five rush defense, allowing just 70 yards rushing per game. Harris is averaging 8.5 targets per game, also No. 1 among running backs. Because of his involvement in the passing game in addition to his workload inside the 10-yard line, he is both cash and GPP viable this week.

4) Mark Ingram: $4,300 on DraftKings, $5,400 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 26.98 (No. 4 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 21.48 (No. 3 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.0 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 36.36 percent

Mark Ingram Productivity Metrics

Mark Ingram returns to the list, mostly due to several of the top running backs not on the main slate. The stats above tell the story about him; He is their goal-line running back, he does not receive any targets inside the 10-yard line. If the Texans get within the 10 and they run the ball, it is usually going to go to him. Ingram has cheap touchdown upside every week as long as he has this role in the offense. He is not someone I would trust or rely on, but someone I would consider as a punt if I was playing more than 10 lineups in a GPP.

3) David Johnson: $6,300 on DraftKings, $6,600 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 29.72 (No. 3 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 20.75 (No. 4 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.25 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.75 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 36.36 percent

David Johnson Game Log

David Johnson makes the list, because of the targets he has received inside the 10-yard line. Because targets are more valuable than carries, he leapfrogs Mark Ingram on this list. He averages 2.5 targets per game and has scored just one touchdown on the season. Averaging 0.75 targets inside the 10-yard line is tied for No 1. among running backs, however, his low Red Zone Snap Share makes him hard to trust, especially at the $6k+ price tag.  He is someone I would skip entirely for DFS.

2) Aaron Jones: $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 29.78 (No. 2 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 24.43 (No. 2 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 2.0 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.75 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 80.00 percent

Unlike the previous two players, Aaron Jones is the type of player that is viable in DFS every week. He is averaging 2 carries inside the 10-yard line per game, 0.75 targets inside the 10-yard line per game, and is on the field in the Red Zone 80 percent of the time. He provides a floor and ceiling that we can rely on across all formats on both DraftKings and FanDuel.  Now that he is priced up and facing a Top 10 rush defense that allows just 93.5 rushing yards per game, I would consider Jones for GPPs this week and not cash.

1) D’Andre Swift: $6,100 on DraftKings, $6,900 on FanDuel

High Value Touch Index – DraftKings: 33.81 (No. 1 overall)
High Value Touch Index – FanDuel: 25.54 (No. 1 overall)

Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line: 1.5 per game
Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line: 0.75 per game
Red Zone Snap Share: 68.98 percent

D’Andre Swift Game Log

Priced in the 6k range and being among the leaders in Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line, D’Andre Swift shows up at No. 1 on the index this week on both sites. His touches inside the 10-yard line are very similar to Aaron Jones but at a reduced cost. Keep an eye on is his injury status as he is still dealing with a groin injury. Check the news Sunday morning before locking him into any of your lineups. Assuming he is full-go, he is both cash and GPP viable this week. Minnesota has the No. 25 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 135.5 rushing yards per game. Because Detroit is expected to lose this game by more than a touchdown, Detroit will likely be passing frequently.  Swift is No. 2 among running backs in targets averaging 7.3 per game. 

Just Missed The Cut

DraftKings: Ezekiel Elliott (23.79) and James Conner (23.30)
FanDuel: James Conner (20.71) and Ezekiel Elliott (18.31)

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Final Thoughts

This is a strange week for running backs with many of the top running backs, not on the Sunday main slate. D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, and Mark Ingram are players to have in the player pool for tournaments provided they are active and healthy. Swift and Harris can be used in cash lineups due to limited options at running back on the main slate.

We will come back for Week 6 with an update to the index! Best of luck in Week 5!