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Andrew Luck may be the single most pivotal player in fantasy football this season, as his uncertain health dictates not just his deployment, but also the expected fantasy output for his entire supporting cast in the once-prolific Indianapolis Colts offense. While this uncertainty can be frustrating, it does afford savvy fantasy owners an opportunity to buy many of the pieces of this offense at a discount, including Luck himself.

With a new coaching staff that will rely on a quick-strike passing game and a number of new pieces added to the offense this offseason, the Colts are better prepared to attack defenses in 2018. With a healthy Andrew Luck under center, the Colts are primed to exceed current ADP point expectations and be the most pivotal team in fantasy drafts.

Former Texas Tech phenom Michael Crabtree should flirt with anywhere from 120 to 145 targets this season. Since 2015, among all wideouts with 120-145 targets, the average PPR output was 225.5 fantasy points, per Pro Football Reference, which would have been good for WR10 last season. 

Anthony Miller is what you might call a “veteran rookie.” He comes into the league at 23 years old, just four months younger than Amari Cooper. While this in theory may lead to a shortened career because older rookies hit their peak sooner, it also means that veterans rookies from Sterling Shepard to Cooper Kupp are ready to contribute immediately.

Rashaad Penny comes from San Diego State, which has become a running back factory. Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon is the ultimate enigma player in dynasty leagues.

Why dynasty leaguers should draft workhorse running backs in first round of a start-ups and rookie drafts, and Derrius Guice is a generational talent who should smash this year.

Nick Chubb was Saquon Barkley before Saquon Barkley at the college level. Had Chubb not torn his ACL in 2015, he projected to be the No. 1 running back drafted in dynasty rookie drafts in 2017. Fortunately, Chubb demonstrated pre-injury explosiveness by posting a 91st-percentile Burst Score at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Courtland Sutton doesn’t have the clearest path to year one relevance behind Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas but his talent is undeniable. His size adjusted athleticism and collegiate production profile him as a true X receiver in the near future.

How Ezekiel Elliott can rush for 2000 yards and 20 touchdowns. Corey Davis is somehow being drafted two rounds before Devante Parker.

Could Doug Baldwin lead the NFL in targets? Lower floor: Tyreek Hill or Mike Evans?

Over the years, this bias has collectively grown and overshadowed his positive qualities, however, it’s time to break away from the crowd and take a chance on the currently undrafted Jaron Brown, who is the ideal 2018 late round wide receiver prospect based on his advanced stats, metrics, and analytics player profile.

The Law of Conservation of Targets reminds that Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson signing with the Packers and Redskins freed up 178 targets, or 32-percent of the Seahawk’s total target share from last year. Even though the Seahawks had the opportunity to draft or sign a high profile wide receiver, they settled for Jaron Brown and the fossilized Brandon Marshall.

The New England Patriots’ offense is one of the most prolific we have ever seen. Tom Brady has led this team to a multitude of playoff appearances, conference championships and Super Bowls. He is discussed as one of the greatest — if not the greatest — NFL players of all time. But does his greatness translate to fantasy points for his receivers?

Jordan Matthews’ Speed Score, Catch Radius, SPARQ-x Score, and Breakout Age point to a successful NFL career. Matthews also has been efficient when called upon. He has had a positive Production Premium in three of his four seasons and a positive Target Premium in all four seasons. Matthews is, in the simplest of terms, good at football. He consistently shows it when he’s on the field.

Kenny Golladay was off to a hot start in 2017 before being injured, now its time for him to reassert his dominance in the Detroit Lions offense. Golladay’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics profiles suggests he should succeed in all quadrants of the football field, especially the red zone. 

In the final six weeks upon Kenny Golladay’s return, Marvin Jones posted only two finishes in the top 20. Golladay is commanding targets away from Jones, which is noticeably affecting Jones’s offensive consistency. Jones will still be able to put up numbers, but to a lesser extent when Golladay is healthy and on the field.

The ability to convert targets into receptions matters, and Davante Adams has been a prolific pass dropper since entering the league. How inefficient has Davante Adams been through four seasons in Green Bay? His 7.08 yards per target is less than Jarvis Landry’s 7.12 yards per target over the same period. Let that sink in. 

In redraft leagues on myfantasyleague.com, Davante Adams is going near the end of the second round with an average draft position of 22. In dynasty league startups, Adams is going even higher: in the first round. Dynasty owners everywhere seems to be frantically trying to obtain Adams as an ascending, back-to-back WR1 that is still only 25.5 years old.

It’s time for the Los Angeles Chargers to convert Dylan Cantrell into a tight end for 2018. Dylan Cantrell is far and away more athletic than Hunter Henry. He’s faster, has more burst, is much more agile and has a better catch radius. If Henry can do what he does with what he has, imagine how much of an impact Cantrell could have? Cantrell is even more athletic than Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce.

With Hunter Henry out for the year, it would only make sense for Cantrell to switch to tight end and show the league how talented he is and how dominant he could be. As a tight end on a prolific offense, he could be the rookie that tears it up on fantasy teams in 2018.