Melvin Gordon is more at-risk of missing games than Ezekiel Elliott. What is the Kerryon Johnson’s downside?
Justice Hill will be a top-15 fantasy running back. Amari Cooper’s foot injury is not insignificant.
Calvin Ridley looks ready to carve out a bigger target share on one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL. That will translate into a massive amount of fantasy points. The Falcons attempted the fifth-most passes (617) last season when Ridley managed a 15.2-percent target share. However, there’s a clear path forward to more targets for the sophomore heir apparent.
Despite his flashes of efficiency, Courtland Sutton struggled with six drops, recorded a -3.5 (No. 54) Production Premium and garnered a 14.9-percent (No. 75) Target Share in his rookie season. His path to more targets is unclear with the return of Emmanuel Sanders and the development of fellow sophomores DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick.
Leonard Fournette hasn’t been a featured weapon game through two injury-plagued seasons of his NFL career but that can still change. Dating back to his time at LSU, Fournette looked the part of an every-down back. He accounted for 11.9-percent of his team’s targets.
The Washington offense will stifle any chemistry built between Dwayne Haskins and Terry McLaurin. They threw the 24th most passes last season and have been a conservative passing game for most of Gruden’s tenure in Washington. In the past four seasons, the leading receiver in Washington has had a target depth no higher than 10.7.
Fresh off a productive rookie season, Chris Herndon is among the most obvious breakout tight ends heading into 2019. It’s rare for rookie tight ends to be fantasy factors. Herndon went so far as playing runner-up to Robby Anderson in every important receiving category last year.
While Kliff Kingsbury has stocked the cupboard with several new weapons for Kyler Murray to play with, Ricky Seals-Jones sticks out as the biggest body for him to target. Whether it be in the middle of the field, down the seam or in the red zone.
Matt Ryan finished 2018 with a 79.5-percent (No. 25 among qualified players) Protection Rate. The Falcons rectified this, brigning in five free agent linemen and selected two more in the first round of the NFL Draft. His protection will bounce back, giving him more time to connect with his receivers deep.
Calvin Ridley’s touchdown total is bound to regress, being that he was only expected to score 3.6 based on his minimal usage in the red zone. The good news is that he will see a bump in volume as the Falcons phase out Mohammed Sanu in favor of the dynamic sophomore. The increase in target share will offset the touchdown regression, meaning a more productive second year is within his reach.
Fading James Conner because of Jaylen Samuels feels like bad process. With Gary Jennings looking like a bust, is David Moore percolating?
Alex Barnes deserves an opportunity. Packers – Darrin Hall finally found a home in Green Bay.
What we get in Derrick Henry is a size/speed specimen the likes of which the world has never seen. What he isn’t, is a receiver. This works if the running back is a Nick Chubb-level talent in an offense with top-five scoring potential. Sadly, the Titans haven’t shown us that. In 2018, Henry averaged a mere 9.9 (No. 45) Weighted Opportunities per game.
Lamar Miller received more touches than Melvin Gordon last year, and yet he only averaged 12.3 (No 23) Fantasy Points per game. Bill O’Brien offenses run at a quick pace and have a high volume of rushing plays. 76-percent of his 235 total touches were empty calorie touches. Despite the team lacking other pass-catching backs, he earned only 2.5 targets a game.
Antonio Brown’s frost bitten feet are a non-story. David Montgomery is having a wonderful preseason. Does it matter?
Tom Brady loves Jakobi Meyers. Does it matter? Donte Moncrief continues to receive camp buzz.
Miles Boykin saw more volume than expected in his first NFL action, but fantasy owners should not overrate this performance. Boykin only played three of 12 snaps with Lamar Jackson and was not used until the second unit took over. Baltimore wants to know what they have in the third-round rookie and thus peppered him with force-fed targets from Trace McSorley.
Irv Smith played 25 of the offense’s 29 first half snaps including three where he lined up in the slot. In that substantial action, he hauled in three of seven targets for 21 receiving yards. Smith was also running deep routes and barely missed a few big gains. Despite a good showing, Smith is falling because he continues to play behind Kyle Rudolph on the depth chart.
T.Y. Hilton in the second round feels aggressive, no? Why on earth is Le’Veon Bell being drafted as if he’s not a Jet?
Selecting Michael Thomas in the first round makes sense to get exposure to the Saints offense. George Kittle in the 2nd round makes more sense than Travis Kelce in the 1st round.
