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Second-Year Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates

by Matthew Gajewski, April 6, 2020

Arguably the most unproven receiver room in the NFL, the Indianapolis Colts sit with T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell atop their wide receiver depth chart. While Campbell appeared in only seven games as a rookie, the former second-round pick should receive opportunity early in Indianapolis. The Colts already traded their first-round pick for DeForest Buckner, increasing Campbell’s likelihood of seeing the field. With little competition in his way, the former Buckeye is a strong candidate for a second-year breakout.

A second-year receiver from Toledo, Diontae Johnson looks capable of taking a second-year leap in Pittsburgh. He already appeared to ascend  near the end of 2019, posting 59 receptions and 680 receiving yards on 92 (No. 37) targets. Looking at the Steelers offense alone, this team completely collapsed without Ben Roethlisberger. With Big Ben now set to return, it’s wheels up for Johnson.

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Ultimate Winners and Losers from NFL Free Agency

by The Podfather, April 5, 2020

Teddy Bridgewater gains a substantial 4.83 lifetime value points on PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings after landing in the singular situation to maximize his limited skill set. The Panthers’ passing game features big time RB/WR hybrid playmakers, which is the ideal fit for a quarterback who keeps the ball close to the line of scrimmage. With Teddy throwing short darts, Carolina’s receiving corps could lead the NFL in team yards after catch.

What a stomach punch. Cam Newton goes from throwing passes to the best receiving corps in the league (D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and Ian Thomas) to just needing someone to believe in him. According to his Instagram videos, Newton looks rededicated and is a great uncertainty-fueled value play later in fantasy drafts.

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Jacob Eason Rookie Profile and Fantasy Football Outlook

by Kyle Dvorchak, April 3, 2020

Devy League players have known of Jacob Eason since he threw his first touchdown in third grade, but most college football fans learned his name when he took the field at Georgia. At 6-6 and 231-pounds, he stands as tall as Ben Roethlisberger and packs as much weight as Jameis Winston. If he showed up on a football field, scouts would instinctually put him under center even if he was hired as an usher.

A big critique of Eason by scouts is his inability to avoid defenders in the pocket. This makes sense when considering his 12.25 (5th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) Agility Score and 103.1 (16th-percentile) Burst Score. Unless he turns into an efficient passer, his NFL projection looks like Josh Allen without wheels (ie. Christian Hackenberg). He is a stock image of a professional quarterback. He superficially looks the part but he’s not the real deal, even if a team fires off a first-round selection on him.

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Stefon Diggs Will Separate From the Herd in Buffalo

by Etan Mozia, April 3, 2020

On the morning of March 16th, Stefon Diggs exchanged the purple and gold for red white and blue, sending the fantasy landscape into a frenzy in one fell swoop. His detractors will claim that the fit in Buffalo is a disjointed one and that the presence of John Brown and Cole Beasley will crowd out his volume. They’ll double down and state that Josh Allen’s accuracy woes will doom Diggs to a mediocre finish, but they’ll overlook the bigger picture and miss the forest for the trees.

All signs point to Diggs staying put in Buffalo for a long time, and stability is an underrated dynasty asset. He will be fine and now has the added benefit of being the true number one receiver on his team. John Brown is 29 years old and only signed through 2021. Being paired with Josh Allen isn’t a death sentence for one of the league’s best receivers entering his age-26 season and being one year away from a wide receiver’s statistical prime. Buy the dip.

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Thaddeus Moss Rookie Profile and Fantasy Football Outlook

by Taylor Smith, April 2, 2020

The 2019 LSU offense was arguably the most prolific of all time, meaning everyone produced. Thaddeus Moss only saw 51 targets, but he made the most of them. He hauled in 47 for 570 yards and four scores. Though Joe Burrow’s prolific passing season deflated Moss’ College Dominator to 10.0-percent (21st-percentile among qualified tight ends), making his stats seem less significant than they were. With a low share of team production, he never posted a breakout season by our metrics.

Moss’ relative lack of production along with his incomplete athletic profile will make it difficult for any NFL team to burn an early-round pick on him. That will make it harder for him to find the field as a rookie. In turn, his fantasy value also wouldn’t improve much in Year 1. One positive is that Moss’ final season at LSU showed that he has “it” in his range of outcomes. He won’t cost much, making him a low-risk flier for your team.

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Which Running Backs Will Lose Their Jobs in the NFL Draft?

by Matthew Gajewski, April 1, 2020

After exceeding expectations in 2018, James Conner battled injuries throughout 2019. With injury concerns dating back to college, Conner has yet to play an entire 16-game season in the NFL. After tearing his MCL at Pittsburgh, he missed a pair of games with an ankle sprain in 2018. Last year, he missed six games with an AC Joint sprain and a thigh contusion. With durability limiting his effectiveness, the Steelers may opt for a complimentary back in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Looking at the stats alone, Leonard Fournette consistently produces like a league-average running back. In 2019, he posted a 16.7-percent (No. 46 among qualified running backs) Juke Rate and 1.40 (No. 24) Yards Created per Carry. He did show growth as a receiver in 2019 with 76 catches. However, he recorded seven (No. 3) drops and failed to haul in a single target beyond ten yards downfield. With the potential to move on from him this offseason, the Jaguars look like a potential investor in the running back position in this year’s draft.

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Laviska Shenault Rookie Profile and Fantasy Football Outlook

by Clint Hale, March 31, 2020

Laviska Shenault’s prolific sophomore campaign gives him a 19.9 (66th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age. Sophomore seasons are important for wide receivers and have proved to be early indicators of NFL success for studs like A.J. Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Shenault put himself in Brown and Smith-Schuster’s company as a prospect by tallying 68 receptions and 1,011 receiving yards in only nine games.

Despite his injury issues, Shenault leaves Colorado with a 35.1-percent (68th-percentile) College Dominator Rating. Given his college production in the Pac-12 and his fire hydrant-like build, it makes sense that he would be Best Comparable to 2019 rookie breakout A.J. Brown. He’s currently a Top-15 asset in PlayerProfiler’s 2020 Rookie Rankings. If selected early on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, he’ll be a screaming value in the second round of 2020 dynasty rookie drafts.

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Michael Pittman Rookie Profile and Fantasy Football Outlook

by Alex Johnson, March 30, 2020

Michael Pittman was quietly one of the biggest winners at the NFL Combine. After weighing in at 6-4, 223-pounds, he ran a 4.52 (59th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard-dash, translating to a 111.2 (93rd-percentile) Speed Score. He performed well in the agility and explosion drills, registering an 11.10 (66th-percentile) Agility Score and a 122.6 (58th-percentile) Burst Score. Players who look like him tend to become valuable fantasy assets.

Pittman is in position to be an immediate plug-and-play WR2/WR3 on an NFL depth chart. He has the full route tree in his arsenal and can play both X-receiver or as a big slot. There are some big red flags in his production profile, though. His late breakout and lack of a meaningful role in the USC offense until his junior and senior seasons is concerning, as is his lack of production after the catch. With that said, he’s still a top-10 WR in this class and a solid second-round selection in dynasty rookie drafts.

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Jordan Love Rookie Profile and Fantasy Outlook

by Eric Lindberg, March 29, 2020

Utah State’s Jordan Love is the most polarizing quarterback prospect in the 2020 NFL Draft Class. Standing 6-3 and weighing in at 224-pounds, he possesses the tantalizing size at quarterback which NFL GMs have traditionally loved. Unfortunately, in an age where front offices are incorporating analytics into their decision-making processes in unprecedented ways on and off the field, Love does not grade out as a blue-chip quarterback prospect. 

From a redraft perspective, Love’s 2020 impact depends entirely on his landing spot. Being drafted in his expected first round window places him in the realm of the third or fourth round in dynasty rookie drafts. His value will be contingent on whether or not his full athletic potential is realized on the field and not just during workouts. Expect spotty passing efficiency early in his career, but eye-popping weeks that keep his value steady throughout.

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