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Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target and Avoid: Fantasy Football Week 4

by Aaron Stewart, October 2, 2020

Kenny Golladay secured a 22.6-percent (No. 20 among qualified wide receivers) Target Rate in his first game back from injury and averaged 2.53 (No. 16) Fantasy Points Per Target. Lattimore allows 18.6 (No. 69) Yards per Reception. On the other side, Golladay averaged 18.3 (No. 4) Yards per Reception last season. It feels weird to say that Lattimore is the cornerback matchup to target here, but his 2020 season has been downright horrible. This is a wheels up situation.

To say that Tavierre Thomas has struggled in 2020 is an understatement. His 23.1-percent Burn Rate is fourth-highest among all cornerbacks, while his 139.1 Passer Rating Allowed is only better than 11 cornerbacks in the league. CeeDee Lamb averages 1.90 (No. 46) Fantasy Points Per Target, while Thomas allows 2.50 Fantasy Points Per Target. Amari Cooper may receive more targets than Lamb this week, but Lamb will do more with each of his targets than Cooper will against Denzel Ward.

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Upside Wide Receivers For Week 4 GPPs

by Alex Johnson, October 2, 2020

DeVante Parker has a mouth-watering Week 4 matchup with the Seahawks, who have become the first team in NFL history to allow 1,200 passing yards in three games. With the Seattle offense playing as well as it has, Game Script should call for heavy pass volume on the Miami side. Parker is only $5,700 on Draftkings in a week where he can feasibly finish as a top-five wideout.

Tee Higgins has seen his Snap Share increase every week and is now a starter in this Bengals offense. He draws a Jaguars defense in Week 4 that allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to set a Dolphins franchise record, completing 90-percent of his Week 3 pass attempts. It might feel like chasing points, but the peripherals say he’s here to stay. At $4,500 on Draftkings, this future alpha is a nice Week 4 value play.

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Weighted Opportunities DFS Value Index – Week 4

by Sean McClure, October 2, 2020

Fantasy football does not have to be hard. David Montgomery ranks No. 1 among this list of 10 players in a volume-driven metric that has no idea Tarik Cohen is out for the season. Montgomery was already seeing over 65-percent of Chicago’s opportunities and will now be a true workhorse. Nick Foles takes over the offense, which should increase the team’s play volume, touchdown potential, and efficiency. This is a rare opportunity to get this large of a projected workload at under $6,000.

Devin Singletary’s Opportunity Share and per-game numbers are inflated by Zack Moss’ Week 3 absence. Yet, Singletary has been much more involved in the passing game this season. The Bills are now among the top offenses in the league, which leaves room for both Moss and Singletary to be productive in their roles. Singletary’s red zone usage compared to Moss is worth monitoring, but Singletary is among the top plays of the week in a plus-matchup against the Raiders.

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Top-5 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Buys Heading Into Week 4

by Corbin Young, October 2, 2020

D.J. Moore has drawn 26 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) targets, a 25.5-percent (No. 11) Target Share, 358 (No. 5) Air Yards, and a 48.0-percent (No. 3) Air Yards Share. However, with 14 (No. 24) receptions for 239 (No. 14) receiving yards and zero (No. 67) touchdowns, he’s averaged a mere 12.6 (No. 34) Fantasy Points per Game. All of those advanced metrics not aligning with the fantasy production screams Buy, Buy, Buy (and we don’t mean the NSYNC song).

The most concerning stat for Michael Gallup is the lowly 13.6-percent (No. 73) Target Share. However, Dak Prescott targets him deep, evidenced by a 17.0 (No. 9) Average Target Distance mark and 22.4 (No. 3) Yards per Reception. If the Target Share increases, then Gallup should improve his fantasy production. Since he’s only averaged 13.9 (No. 27) Fantasy Points per Game to this point, fantasy gamers should trade for him now before he has another outing like last week’s 25.8-point (WR7) performance. 

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Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 4

by Matthew M. Stevens, October 2, 2020

Six of Marquise Brown’s 18 targets have registered as Deep Targets, which ranks No. 7 among qualified wide receivers. Lamar Jackson has targeted him on six of his nine (No. 17) Deep Ball Attempts. Brown has also earned a 35.1-percent (No. 12) Air Yards Share. He’s seeing the downfield looks and there is still more meat on the bone, evidenced by his 125 (No. 28) Completed Air Yards and 114 (No. 25) Unrealized Air Yards. This dynamic duo looks primed to hook up on a few signature plays.

A.J. Green ranks No. 2 with 386 Air Yards and No. 1 with 283 Unrealized Air Yards, and has drawn seven (No. 4) Deep Targets. His low projected rostership on the main slate makes him a mouth-watering play, and he’s in a much better spot matchup-wise this week, too. Green will continue to see a high volume of targets and find his footing working against rookie C.J. Henderson. This week, he oozes with the potential to eclipse 100 receiving yards and end his touchdown drought.

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 4

by Taylor Smith, October 1, 2020

Has there ever been an RB with a 96.0-percent (No. 1 among qualified running backs) Snap Share that is under $6000? Well, we have that this week in David Johnson. In Duke Johnson’s absence, he has captured an 85.2-percent (No. 3) Opportunity Share. He is also leading the position in Route Participation, running a route on 95.8-percent of Houston’s pass plays. The stars are aligning for Johnson to have a breakout game in Week 4 against the Vikings, and $5600 isn’t much to spend to be a part of it.

If you need to go way down for some salary savings, Myles Gaskin is the best option. After hitting double-digit fantasy points in every game without even scoring a touchdown, he is a high-floor fantasy option in this spot. If he can find the end zone at least once against Seattle, which seems likely given Miami’s 24-point implied team total, Gaskin can be a tournament-winning leverage play against the chalky pass-catchers in this game.

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Buy High and Sell Low Players After Week 3: Brandon Aiyuk is Here to Stay

by Kyle Dvorchak, October 1, 2020

Brandon Aiyuk’s profile coming out of Arizona State was impressive. He posted a 40.6-percent (82nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating and contributed on special teams in both of his collegiate seasons at the FBS level. His history of production and early NFL success points to a bright rookie season that is worth paying a premium for.

Per the Data Analysis Tool, Nick Chubb’s 7.4-percent touchdown rate ranks No. 6 among backs with more than 20 carries. If one of the most random stats in fantasy football doesn’t break his way on most weeks, Chubb will end the season as a middling RB2. Look to move him for backs seeing more volume in the passing game who haven’t been able to find the end zone as much such as Kenyan Drake or Joe Mixon.

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Four DFS Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks for Week 4

by Taylor Williams, October 1, 2020

With a middling projected point total, and given the Colts defensive scoring stats so far, many DFS gamers may be scared off this Colts-Bears matchup. However, those defensive stats came against the Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Given the expected volume and increased efficiency in the Chicago passing game, paired with the favorable CB matchup, a Nick Foles-Allen Robinson stack provides tantalizing upside with low ownership.

In what should be a high scoring affair, target Cam Newton (priced at QB10) and both of his leading receivers against the Chiefs for maximum upside. N’Keal Harry and Julian Edelman have combined for over 50-percent of the Patriots Target Share, which increases to almost 60-percent of the red zone targets. That red zone activity combined with Newton’s goal line rushing ability gives this stack a monopoly on Patriots touchdowns.

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Dynasty Market Movers: Week 3 Report

by Steve Smith, October 1, 2020

The future of the Rams backfield remains somewhat murky. Veteran Malcolm Brown is still involved and Cam Akers will eventually return from injury. Even if Akers is able to shed his day-to-day tag, all indications suggest that Darrell Henderson has earned a Week 4 starting role. Whether or not the team returns to a committee approach, Henderson has flashed and shown that he can produce at the pro level. His dynasty stock has risen as a result.

At 6-2, 216-pounds, Gabriel Davis provides the Bills offense with a different element at receiver – size. The UCF alumi’s prospect profile is good, with a 34.4-percent (65th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating, 103.1 (77th-percentile) Speed Score and 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If Brown misses extended time, this may be the last opportunity to acquire Davis at value.

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Metric of the Week: Using Weighted Opportunities to Value Running Backs

by Matthew M. Stevens, September 29, 2020

Myles Gaskin’s player profile doesn’t scream elite talent, but he’s seeing the most meaningful touches in Miami’s backfield and making the most of them. He has see 47.9 (No. 8 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities through three games, and while he hasn’t produced a breakout game, one is on the horizon. Gaskin has caught 15 of 16 targets, good for a 93.8-percent (No. 6) Catch Rate. He also hasn’t found the end zone yet, which will change soon given the weight of his touches.

On the other end of the spectrum, Mark Ingram’s slow start can be traced back to his unimpressive 21.9 (No. 45) Weighted Opportunities. While has seen six (No. 35) Red Zone Touches through the first three weeks, none came from inside the 5-yard line and they resulted in only one (No. 29) touchdown. He’s also drawn only four (No. 54) targets. This much is clear: Ingram no longer possesses workhorse back upside, and should not be viewed as anything more than a middling RB3.

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