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Dynasty Market Movers: Week 4 Report

by Steve Smith, October 8, 2020

Justin Jefferson has been productive and is clearly locked into the No. 2 wide receiver role in Minnesota. Over four games, he ranks No. 8 among qualified wide receivers with 348 receiving yards and 126 Yards After Catch. From an efficiency standpoint, he has been unreal. He has a whopping 3.70 (No. 1) Yards per Route Run, a 1.95 (No. 28) Target Separation mark, earns 17.4 (No. 1) Yards per Target, and has committed zero (No. 81) drops. With an impressive 21.8 (No. 3) Yards per Reception, the rookie delivers chain-moving chunk plays.

Rookie Darnell Mooney has out-snapped Anthony Miller in three consecutive weeks. In Week 3, they each ran 35 routes and saw five targets. In Week 4, Mooney ran more routes and saw more targets. A possible third-year breakout candidate, Miller’s dynasty value has been trending the wrong way to start 2020. The production needs to live up to the potential sooner than later, or it will be last call for Miller Time.

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Top-5 Fantasy Football Tight End Buys Heading Into Week 5

by Corbin Young, October 8, 2020

Through three games, Jonnu Smith has smashed. He has recorded 13 (No. 13 among qualified tight ends) receptions for 181 (No. 9) receiving yards and averages 16.4 (No. 3) Fantasy Points per Game. Smith has drawn 20 (No. 12) targets, a 20.6-percent (No. 5) Target Share, 135 (No. 17) Air Yards (No. 17), and a 17.2-percent (No. 12) Air Yards Share. Even with the low Air Yards total, Smith has racked up 100 (No. 6) Yards After Catch.

Hunter Henry washed away the narrative and concern surrounding a new quarterback other than Philip Rivers targeting the tight end position. Amongst tight ends, Henry has earned a 19.5-percent (No. 9) Target Share with 225 (No. 8) Air Yards and a 20.1-percent (No. 8) Air Yards Share. Henry has averaged 10.6 (No. 15) Fantasy Points per Game without even scoring a touchdown yet. He’s a must-start player and should be targeted aggressively in trades.

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Joshua Kelley and Other Week 5 Waiver Wire Targets

by Christopher Buonagura, October 6, 2020

PlayerProfiler subscribers already know all about Joshua Kelley’s upside. He’s healthy Sony Michel. His usage was throttled back in favor of Austin Ekeler over these last few weeks, but Ekeler is slated to miss 4-6 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. The split between Kelley and Justin Jackson is yet to be seen, but both players warrant a bid going into the Week 5 waiver run.

Julio Jones is dealing with lingering hamstring issues, paving the way for more opportunity for Olamide Zaccheaus, who profiles as a proficient slot receiver best comparable to Jamison Crowder. His 34.1-percent (94th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Target Share and 19.1 (88th-percentile) Breakout Age suggest that this undrafted free agent belongs on NFL rosters and fantasy teams alike.

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Week 4 Lessons Learned: Amari Cooper Ceiling Week

by Tyler Strong, October 5, 2020

Give an athletic phenom 16 targets in the perfect Game Script, and that’s the Amari Cooper ceiling scenario. Cooper racked up 134 yards and a score on 12 catches in a game where Dak Prescott had over 500 passing yards. The Cowboys can’t stop anyone, and it makes for unreal passing volume. Cooper is a top-5 play going forward, especially as Michael Gallup fades further into the ether. 

Joe Mixon ran well against the poor Jaguars defense, with a long burst of 34 yards. The offensive line woes for the Bengals have been highly publicized, but Joe Burrow’s continued improvement week over week has forced defenses to spread out against the balanced attack. Mixon will attempt to continue his success against… the Baltimore Ravens. He makes for a choice tournament play with a precocious Joe Burrow ready to do battle with a Ravens team that’s shown unevenness in games they trail.

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The Infirmary- Week 4 Injury Report

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, October 4, 2020

A big question mark for Monday Night, Davante Adams practiced in limited fashion on Saturday. In addition to the Allen Lazard injury, this may leave quarterback Aaron Rodgers with a cast of wideouts led by Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Robert Tonyan anyone? He’s caught a touchdown each of the last two weeks, garnering five targets for five receptions including the TD in Adams’ absence versus the Saints. It appears he’s earned some semblance of Rodgers’ trust, which could be huge come Monday Night.

Plenty of teams are suffering multiple injuries, a few nearly decimated at one position. The Eagles, for example, continue to play thin at wide receiver and the injury to Dallas Goedert exacerbates the situation, given he’s out multiple weeks. Greg Ward needs to be in lineups this Sunday, if it wasn’t already obvious. However, don’t forget about Philadelphia’s two rookie wide receivers, John Hightower and Quez Watkins, the latter of which is set to return from I.R.

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Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 4

by Taylor Smith, October 4, 2020

Without the top two corners in New Orleans, this matchup with the Lions should be a shootout. That will benefit Tre’Quan Smith the most as the de facto alpha receiving option for New Orleans. Detroit ranks No. 27 in Defensive DVOA, so the Saints will have ease moving the ball even with Drew Brees’ deteriorating arm. This matchup is tied for the second-highest total on the slate at 54.5 points, so stacking this game looks viable for tournaments given these affordable prices.

Adam Trautman should slide right into Jared Cook’s role as a big-bodied move tight end having already played out of the slot on 35.9-percent of his snaps this season. He clearly has the talent and will now get the opportunity in an offense commanded by the most accurate QB of all time with a creative offensive play-caller. The game environment sets up well for this min-priced TE and he offers some much-needed salary relief for cash game lineups.

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Expected Points Added (EPA): What It Is and How to Use It

by Josh Larky, October 3, 2020

Carson Wentz hasn’t been great for fantasy in 2020, but he hasn’t been terrible. In Weeks 1-3, he’s recorded 15.0, 14.4, and 23.5 fantasy points. Look at his EPA though, and you’ll see that his -22.6 ranks second-lowest of all quarterbacks through three weeks, in front of only Sam Darnold. With three passing TDs, six INTs, and a paltry 5.6 yards per attempt, Wentz will need to step it up if he wants to remain the starter in Philadelphia.

EPA has been added to PlayerProfiler to help you become a more well-rounded football fan, but more importantly, to help you get better at dynasty. Jalen Hurts is a Konami code QB with elite speed and burst, but he’s stuck behind 2017 MVP finalist Wentz. Utilizing EPA, we can now see that Hurts is a great dynasty stash. Not just for his rushing ability, but because the guy in front of him on the depth chart has “added” -22.6 points to his team thanks to his erratic throws and poor decision-making.

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NFL Monkey Knife Fight Props: Week 4

by Cody Carpentier, October 3, 2020

There is nothing like getting some skin on a Sunday or Monday Night Football shootout. The game with the highest point total on the slate is the last game, Atlanta @ Green Bay on Monday Night. Green Bay has allowed five touchdowns to running backs, third-most in the league, while Atlanta has given up four of their own. While Aaron Jones leads the league in rushing touchdowns, the Packers lead the league in scoring, averaging a whopping 41 points.

If Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins can push Russell Wilson to throw more then he needs to on Sunday, 607.5 combined passing yards will be a cakewalk. If you are confident in this game shooting out, you can move up to 663.5 or 720.5 combined passing yards for increased odds. With a Projected 53-point game total, Vegas is predicting a little Fitzmagic in Miami on Sunday. Are you?

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Week 3 Usage Rates: Buy David Montgomery, Sell Todd Gurley Ahead Of Week 4

by Joshua Kellem, October 3, 2020

Averaging 12.5 (No. 26) Fantasy Points per Game, David Montgomery is in line to become a full-time player – 70-percent Snap Share or higher – with a slight uptick in touches. He averaged 14 carries and three targets per game before Tarik Cohen’s injury. Hurting Montgomery’s case, though, is that the Bears rank in the bottom half of the league with 19 running back targets. Montgomery is a volume-based RB2 moving forward. If he can push for 20 touches with Nick Foles at quarterback, his fantasy football outlook is optimal.

Despite the great opportunity, Evan Engram’s production is lackluster. He has a 35-percent (No. 10 among qualified tight ends) Slot Rate with 56 (No. 5) Slot Snaps, emphasizing his passing game utilization. He’s commanded 20 (No. 7) targets on a Giants team averaging 40.7 (No. 7) Team Pass Plays Per Game. Lastly, his Target Share is decent at 18.9-percent (No. 9), though he only has a 17.9-percent (No. 48) Target Rate. Basically, he’s not commanding a dominant share of the targets, nor is he targeted on a dominant rate of the routes he runs.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 4

by Edward DeLauter, October 2, 2020

Is it really paying up when D.J. Moore is priced at $5,600 or is it just outright theft? The Air Yards Value Score leader entering Week 4, Moore has thus far failed to meet expectations this year, posting only one fantasy WR1 week. With 139 (No. 19 among qualified wide receivers) Unrealized Air Yards, a WR1 week is coming soon. Look for Moore to get back on track this week against the Cardinals.

John Brown has formed a formidable one-two punch with new teammate Stefon Diggs as part of a revamped Buffalo passing attack. While Diggs has averaged 20.6 (No. 6) Fantasy Points per Game to Brown’s 12.4 (No. 37) mark, it’s Smokey who leads the Bills in Air Yards through three weeks. With 171 (No. 11) Unrealized Air Yards, this may finally be the week where Brown outscores Diggs in fantasy points.

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