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David Montgomery is now at his second-lowest price of the season and has a soft matchup against Detroit. With a 44-point total, this game doesn’t project for many touchdowns. The good news is that the Lions have allowed 21 total touchdowns to RBs this season, easily the most in the NFL. Montgomery is a high-floor RB in a smash spot. When factoring in his price, he looks like one of the best RB values on the slate.

With the Colts being 3.5-point favorites over the Texans this week, Jonathan Taylor is set up for another 20 touches. This game has a 51-point total, which is the third-highest on the slate. The Texans also rank No. 27 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and have allowed the most rushing yards and touchdowns to RBs this season. Taylor has caught at least two balls in all but two games this season, boosting his floor and making him a viable play in cash lineups. This is the eruption spot we’ve been waiting for.

The will they-won’t they relationship between the Rams coaching staff and Cam Akers’ starting role has been the talk of the town for weeks. Akers’ Week 12 efficiency (9-84-1) dwarfed Darrell Henderson’s 19 yards on three carries and Malcolm Brown’s 19 scrimmage yards on five total touches. Project forward. Pray that McVay read the box score and plays his young stud as a workhorse in Week 13 against the Cardinals.

With high playoff upside, Tim Patrick remains a featured add in this column for two weeks straight. His schedule includes a potential Week 13 shootout with the Chiefs, Carolina’s soft secondary in Week 14, and another potential shootout in Week 16 against the Chargers. Patrick is a featured weapon with high upside when Drew Lock returns to the lineup.

With exposure to COVID-19 rendering their entire quarterback depth chart useless, the Broncos had to get creative. Enter rookie Kendall Hinton, the former Wake Forest quarterback who converted to wide receiver his senior season. Thrown into the fire in an impossible spot, Hinton…played quarterback. Sort of. That is, if throwing more interceptions than completions qualifies as playing quarterback.

Can we petition to get Allen Robinson out of Chicago and on a team with a real quarterback? He’s a WR1 this season and continues to be an undervalued dynasty asset. However, the Bears have no one behind Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles, which makes for a bleak outlook. But Robinson becomes an unrestricted free agent and needs to make his escape from Chicago for his age-28 season.

Derrick Henry took advantage of a depleted Indy front to the tune of 178 yards and a trio of rushing scores. The absence of DeForest Buckner and Bobby Okereke was felt as Henry steamrolled in the first half, doing all but 48 yards of his damage before halftime. Henry remains arguably the highest-ceiling running back in fantasy, and all while contributing next to nothing in the passing game.

Justin Jefferson filled in seamlessly as the Vikings’ top receiver with Adam Thielen on the COVID list. He saw a season-high 13 targets, collecting seven for 70 yards and two scores. Olabisi Johnson actually led the team in receiving with 74 yards, but Jefferson will be a great play again next week whether or not Thielen is able to return against Jacksonville.

Perhaps the biggest news of this list of players who will miss Week 12 due to injury is Todd Gurley. While he isn’t the same running back these days, he’s been solid for fantasy purposes. Brian Hill will assume lead duties in Gurley’s stead, and there’s plenty of reason to believe in him this week.

Tevin Coleman may be out in San Francisco, but Raheem Mostert was activated from the injured reserve, as was Jeff Wilson. There’s a good chance the pair hits the field this Sunday for the 49ers; Mostert would be a welcome sight for this offense. Matt Breida looks to be the starter against the Jets with Salvon Ahmed out and Myles Gaskin a week away from returning. Throw him in those DFS lineups.

What do fantasy players do with Devin Singletary at this point? He keeps getting playing time and keeps performing terribly and losing touches. A home matchup against the Chargers could provide a bounce-back performance, and Singletary has plummeted down to $5,500. There is still enough upside and snaps to justify playing him in GPPs and cash games at that price despite the negative trends.

It is hard to rely on any player in a three way time split, but that is especially true if you are not confidently investing in the leader of the committee. Darrell Henderson is too expensive to play in cash with an uncertain touch floor at $5,900, even in a plus matchup against San Francisco, but he has the upside to be viable in tournaments.

Dalvin Cook enters Week 12 with 14 total touchdowns in nine games. He has scored in all but one contest, finishing with multiple scores in 4-of-9 outings. Carolina finished No. 32 against the run in 2019, allowing 30 touchdowns to running backs. 2020 hasn’t been much better. Through 11 weeks, Carolina ranks No. 27/No. 28 in touchdowns and yards allowed to running backs. 

The Podfather’s Prop of the Week comes from Buffalo in a game with a 53-point projected game total. In 2020, Buffalo has played in six games totaling over 50 points, while Los Angeles has played in seven such games. With key defensive pieces out in Week 12, The Chargers and Bills will turn to their young gunslingers and key on the passing game to gain an edge on each other Sunday.

Now entering Week 12 as the league leader in Air Yards, Calvin Ridley is set to smash against the Raiders. Some DFS players may be shy to play him with Julio Jones expected to rejoin him in two-wide receiver sets. However, Ridley has exhibited a higher ceiling with Jones active, and has outscored the future Hall of Fame wide receiver in fantasy points 121.5 to 114.3 when both players are active.

Jerry Jeudy finds himself at the top spot on the value list for the second consecutive week. He disappointed greatly in Week 11, posting only 6.7 fantasy points against Miami’s tough secondary. More concerning though is that he only played 65.1-percent of the snaps as a result of an ankle injury. He has seen more than enough Air Yards to score plenty of fantasy points in any tough matchup, however his injury concerns add additional volatility.

Jerry Jeudy’s 6.0 (No. 74 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility mark signals a moderate degree of fantasy scoring fluctuation. However, his lack of producing a ceiling game yet directly affects that score. That, coupled with predictive Air Yards metrics, show that he makes for a compelling play this week. He also brings an affordable salary ($5,100) and low projected rostership. He offers gamers a ticking time bomb of slate-breaking upside.

What if I told you that 32.6-percent of Mike Williams’ targets came in the form of Deep Targets? His 9.9 Unrealized Air Yards per target rank No. 3 among receivers who have seen at least 30 targets this season. Even then, he averages 17.3 (No. 11) Yards per Reception. A boom-or-bust archetype, Williams has posted 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past six game and five or fewer points twice. That amounts to a 9.2 (No. 17) Weekly Volatility mark of 9.2 – bordering on extreme volatility.

Cole Beasley is fantasy football’s WR24 and you didn’t even know it. Rostered in just over 51-percent of ESPN leagues, Beasley is the No. 2 receiver for QB6 Josh Allen. John Brown won’t play this week, and this Chargers-Bills implied point total is the third-highest as well. Don’t let Beasley rot on waivers! He’s coming off his best game, a 27.9-point performance against the Jets before the team’s Week 11 bye, but he’s also totaled at least 11.0 PPR fantasy points in all but three games.

With Todd Gurley ruled out for Week 12, Brian Hill faces the Raiders in a matchup with the second-highest implied point total of the week. Adding juice to the matchup is the fact the Raiders defense fields the worst Rush DVOA thus far and allows the fourth-most fantasy points to backs. If the inefficient Gurley, offering no receiving value, can average 13.9 (No. 18 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game while creating 137.9 (No. 11) Weighted Opportunities, Hill can’t be worse.