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Very Very Very Very Bold Predictions for the 2021 Season from the Underworld

by Cody Carpentier, September 5, 2021

Tyler Lockett is not your typical small slot receiver, even though he measures in at 5-10 and 182-pounds, since he has 28 receiving TDs over the past three seasons. Seattle looks like a team ready to throw the ball more frequently in 2021, and Russell Wilson is one of the best QBs in the entire sport. To finish as the WR1 in fantasy, a player needs the Target Share, the QB play, and touchdown variance, all of which Lockett has displayed in past seasons.

Are you ready for an A.J. Brown-level sophomore season from a true alpha prototype wide receiver? Like Brown, Bryan Edwards was the total package college prospect but somehow slipped out of Round 1. Like Brown, Edwards wins on the perimeter and inside. Like Brown, Edwards wins with air yards and YAC. Unlike Brown, Edwards only has a converted tight end who has yet to practice as his primary target competition. You have The Podfather’s permission to get excited.

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Explore the 2021 Beginner’s Guide to DFS

by Chase Vernon, September 5, 2021

A quarterback with a pass-catching running back is a contrarian stack that can net you serious points. Game Script plays a significant part. If the team has a separate third-down back or pass catcher, they will see an increase in snaps if their team is down or if the game is high scoring. Shootouts are matchups you want to attack, and grabbing the pass-catching back could separate you from competitors targeting the same game.

Most people think stacking players can only be players from the same team. However, rostering players from the same game on separate teams can optimize your fantasy points. Although it increases volatility, correlating players from the same game can net premium fantasy production. Figure out why you are playing specific stacks and find players on the opposing side who would benefit from said Game Script to maximize the lineup’s upside.

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Undervalued Stacks for the 2021 Season

by Ethan Park, September 4, 2021

If there’s one thing that’s certain heading into every NFL season, it’s this: Russell Wilson will be hyper efficient throwing touchdowns, and Tyler Lockett will catch a ton of them. Overall, Wilson and Lockett have a special connection when it comes to deep ball touchdowns. At Lockett’s price, managers can construct builds which can protect themselves from the bust weeks, while also being able to take advantage of the guaranteed wins the stack offers.

The argument that Najee Harris takes production away from a Ben Roethlisberger-Chase Claypool stack can be flipped on its head: by adding a talented running back, who’s to say that this offense doesn’t become more efficient, thus granting Claypool more opportunities to produce? We’ve seen direct evidence of this when Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Le’Veon Bell were all elite in 2017. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats.

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Week 1 DraftKings Running Back Milly Maker Values

by Chase Vernon, September 4, 2021

Although the Falcons were solid against the running backs in 2020, the defense was ravaged by injuries, specifically in the secondary. If they’ve improved whatsoever, Miles Sanders should be in for some work out of the backfield. His 2.71 (No. 24 among qualified running backs) Yards Created per Touch while his beat-up line offered a 59.3 (No. 13.) Run Blocking Efficiency rate should be a testament to what he’s capable of if the line is healthy. 

With Travis Etienne being injured so close to the season, expect there to be a decently high percentage of ownership in all contests for James Robinson, who is far from a free square. He was only worth rostering in four tournament contests in 2020. Against the Texans, he disappointed in both matchups. However, with the loss of their best run defender in J.J. Watt and eight new starters in a different system, expect plenty of opportunities to get chunk gains and Breakaway Runs.

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Range of Outcomes: SEC Rookie WRs

by Aaron Stewart, September 3, 2021

When pairing Elijah Moore’s athleticism with his draft capital and production, Tyler Lockett and Emmanuel Sanders are perfect players to look for his floor and ceiling. Moore has shown in college he can be a target hog. His junior season in 2020 saw him lead the FBS with 10.8 receptions and 149.1 receiving yards per game. His floor is fringe WR3 playing primarily outside and his ceiling is high-end WR2 as a PPR monster in the slot.

Size? Check. Early breakout? Check. Draft capital? Check. Terrace Marshall checks all of the boxes that we look for at PlayerProfiler. He has the widest range of outcomes in the 2021 wide receiver class. Is it unfathomable for another LSU receiver to force D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson to eventually take back seats? Marshall’s floor is WR4 and his ceiling is he becomes the captain and produces top-five fantasy seasons.

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In The Red Corner: George Kittle, In the Blue Corner: Darren Waller

by Ted Chmyz, September 2, 2021

Darren Waller has shown he can produce with the very best tight ends, and receivers, in the NFL. His path to continued targets is clear, for this year and beyond. While his age is a concern, his recent breakout means his metaphorical tires have less tread than players younger than him. There’s little standing in the way of him producing as a top tight end for the foreseeable future.

There are reasons to think twice about spending a premium pick on George Kittle. An injury history for a player approaching age 30 can never be ignored, especially in dynasty formats. The 49ers other receiving options are much more talented than they were when Kittle first broke onto the scene. But the Tight End University founder’s superstar talent is undeniable. His statistical profile points to the same conclusion as the eye test. He is a special player who will be a top fantasy tight end for years to come.

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Using Best Ball Win Rates to Uncover Gems in Best Ball Mania II

by Dookie Hogue, September 1, 2021

The TE13 drafted by UnderDog ADP, Jonnu Smith finds himself in a good position to help both the Patriots and your Underdog squad in 2021. In a large field tournament such as Best Ball Mania II, spike weeks from lightly owned players are critical difference makers. Positive regression is in store for Smith though after Tennessee’s overcrowded offense was exchanged for one desperate for playmakers. 

Forecasting talent to overtake mediocrity paid dividends for Justin Herbert drafters last season. An intriguing rookie prospect behind an uninspiring incumbent and with whom high draft capital was invested this season is Trey Lance. If he can make eight-plus starts, he’s a strong play given his playmaking ability and could absolutely smash his ADP. It’s only a matter of time before we see the athletic rookie under center and someone who took advantage sees $1,0001 in their Underdog balance. 

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