PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Jeffrey Waalkes makes his PlayerProfiler debut, looking at Wide Receiver Breakouts for 2025.
Every fantasy football season, there are a few wide receivers who go from “decent flex options” to weekly difference-makers — and the smart managers are the ones who see the wide receiver breakout coming before the hype hits.
In 2025, two names are circling just outside the mainstream draft radar, but all the signs — usage trends, advanced metrics, offensive context, and historical comps — point to major leaps ahead.
Say hello to Josh Downs and DeMario Douglas, two third-year pass-catchers ready to become the next big wide receiver breakouts.
- Downs is a slot machine with elite target rates and red zone volume, and now inherits a quarterback who loves targeting the middle of the field.
- Douglas is a man-coverage destroyer stepping into a Josh McDaniels slot-heavy system with clear chemistry potential alongside rookie QB Drake Maye.
Both are being drafted outside the top 50 WRs. Still, both have the profile of players who could end up finishing inside the top 30, especially in PPR formats where volume, consistency, and short-area separation matter.
Let’s dive into why these two receivers aren’t just breakout candidates. They’re the late-round steals who could help win your league.
Josh Downs: The Hidden Gem WR Poised for a Year 3 Breakout
Josh Downs Advanced Metrics
In the world of fantasy football, third-year wide receivers often go from “interesting stash” to league-winning wide receiver breakouts. In 2025, Josh Downs of the Indianapolis Colts fits the mold perfectly. After two under-the-radar but highly efficient seasons, he’s walking into his third year with expanded opportunity, strong efficiency metrics, and a new quarterback who could finally unlock his full potential.
Downs hasn’t lit up highlight reels, but he’s been remarkably consistent. He improved across the board from his rookie to sophomore campaign, despite missing three games in 2024 and playing in a Colts offense still finding its identity.
- 2023 (Rookie): 68 receptions, 771 yards, 2 TDs
- 2024 (Sophomore): 72 receptions, 803 yards, 5 TDs (14 games)
- Explosive Plays: 10 receptions of 20+ yards in 2024
- Per Game Averages (2024): 5.1 receptions, 57.4 yards, 0.36 TDs
His consistency and increasing red zone usage point to a player on the rise. Even without elite quarterback play, Downs delivered weekly value, especially in PPR formats.
Josh Downs saw 437 snaps from the slot in 2024, which accounted for 72.5% of his total snaps, ranking him No. 8 among all NFL receivers. His smooth footwork, precise routes, and sharp breaks make him a mismatch inside.
In 2025, the Colts are trending toward Daniel Jones at quarterback. While that might concern some, it could boost Downs’s fantasy value. Jones has historically leaned heavily on slot receivers like Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Wan’Dale Robinson.
In 2022, 39 percent of Daniel Jones‘ completions went to slot receivers, a top-10 rate in the NFL. Downs could see a major uptick in quick-hitting targets, especially if the Colts run more tempo or look to move the chains on short-yardage plays.
Here’s where the case comes together. Josh Downs is not just “getting open” and catching passes; he’s doing it at a high level, despite playing in an offense that didn’t give him a full snap share.
2024 Advanced Metrics
| Metric | Stat | NFL Rank (WRs) |
| Targets | 107 (7.6 per game) | 28 |
| Target Share | 25.6 percent (26.4 percent in red zone) | 19 |
| Target Rate (per route) | 29.6 percent | 6 |
| Snap Share | 65.9 percent | 69 |
| Slot Snaps | 437 (72.5 percent) | 8 |
| Routes Run | 362 (25.9 per game) | 64 |
| Route Participation | 77.8 percent | 57 |
Even with limited playing time, Downs ranked inside the Top 6 in target rate. That means when he was on the field and running routes, the ball was coming his way at an elite frequency.
Air Yard & Efficiency Opportunity
| Metric | Stat | NFL Rank |
| Air Yards | 734 (52.4 per game) | 62 |
| Air Yard Share | 17.0 percent | 76 |
| Average Target Distance | 6.9 yards (ADOT) | 97 |
| Deep Targets | 10 | 65 |
| Red Zone Targets | 14 (7 rec) | 25 |
| Target Quality Rating | 4.27 | 87 |
| Catchable Target Rate | 72.9 percent (78 of 107 targets) | 36 |
Downs did not rely on deep shots. His role was possession-based, but he consistently found ways to create yards after the catch and capitalize in the red zone. And despite below-average target quality, he still delivered 72 receptions and 5 touchdowns.
According to Player Profiler, Downs holds an Athleticism Score of 92.5, placing him among the elite percentile of WRs. His twitchy acceleration and ability to stop on a dime make him an ideal candidate for high-percentage targets, especially in space.
Downs profiles similarly to players like Tyler Boyd and DeVonta Smith — smart, efficient route runners who take on larger roles when given the opportunity and time to develop chemistry with their quarterback.
As of early July, Josh Downs is being drafted around WR44 on Underdog.
He’s going after names like:
Yet Downs offers a top-30 target share, elite slot usage, and increasing red zone value. Those are all traits you want in a PPR league winner.
Josh Downs checks every wide receiver breakouts box:
- Elite target rate
- Red zone role
- Slot dominance
- High-level athleticism
- Favorable QB fit
- Underpriced in drafts
This is the year to buy in, before the breakout fully hits. Whether you’re in best ball, redraft, or deeper leagues.
DeMario Douglas: Your Favorite Slot Wide Receiver Breakout for 2025
DeMario Douglas Advanced Metrcis
With all the uncertainty surrounding the New England Patriots’ offense in recent years, it’s easy to overlook players who consistently produce under the radar. But DeMario Douglas, entering his third season, deserves your full attention. And now, with Josh McDaniels back as offensive coordinator, a rebuilt offensive line, and a questionable veteran WR acquisition, Douglas may finally be stepping into the spotlight.
Let’s start with what Douglas has already done:
- 2023 (Rookie): 49 receptions, 561 yards, 0 TDs
- 2024 (Sophomore): 66 receptions, 621 yards, 3 TDs
Despite shaky QB play and a bottom-five offense in both years, Douglas led the team in receiving both seasons. Not bad for a 6th-rounder with no early hype.
And now? The situation is finally starting to tilt in his favor.
Bringing in Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator is a massive shift in how this Patriots offense will operate. McDaniels’ history — especially during his long stint with the Patriots and later in Las Vegas — leans heavily on the slot. Think Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow during his peak.
Here’s a quick look at slot usage under McDaniels:
- 2019 NE: Julian Edelman — 100+ rec, 1,117 yds, 6 TDs (64 percent slot rate).
- 2020 NE: Jakobi Meyers — 59 rec, 729 yds (68 percent slot rate).
- 2021 NE: Meyers — 83 rec, 866 yds (league-leading 56 percent slot receptions).
- 2022 LV: Hunter Renfrow (injured): Still 33 rec, 6.3 targets per game in slot-heavy sets.
- 2021 LV (pre-McDaniels): Renfrow — 103 rec, 1,038 yds, nine TDs (McDaniels used him similarly early in ‘22.)
McDaniels builds passing games around the slot as a chain-moving hub, especially for young quarterbacks, and Douglas fits that role perfectly.
In 2024, Douglas lined up in the slot on 68.2 percent of snaps — Top 15 in the league.
The Patriots also invested in their offensive line this offseason, bringing in two interior starters and spending high draft capital at tackle. This matters a lot for short-intermediate routes, which are rhythm-based and dependent on clean pockets.
With better pass protection and McDaniels calling plays, expect a major jump in offensive efficiency. That translates directly to more drive-sustaining targets for Douglas out of the slot.
Yes, the Patriots made headlines acquiring veteran WR Stefon Diggs — but there are real concerns that should temper expectations:
- He’s 32 years old and coming off an ACL tear last December.
- Reports from camp cite limited participation and some disciplinary concerns from offseason incidents.
- Even if he plays, Diggs will likely operate outside the numbers, while Douglas remains locked into his slot role.
Diggs’ presence may help Douglas, drawing top coverage and opening the middle of the field.
Douglas, not Diggs, is more likely to develop early chemistry with second-year QB Drake Maye, especially in the short passing game that McDaniels has long leaned on.
While DeMario Douglas doesn’t have alpha WR size, he more than makes up for it with elite quickness, footwork, and route precision, especially against man coverage. That’s not just tape talk — the data confirms it.
According to Player Profiler, Douglas boasts a 94.6 explosiveness rating, placing him among the most sudden movers in the NFL. But more importantly, he’s been one of the league’s best at winning routes against man coverage, a crucial skill for consistent fantasy production in high-leverage moments.
Route Wins: Zone vs. Man (2024)
| Metric | Vs. Man | Vs. Zone | NFL Rank |
| Total Route Wins | 159 | — | No. 43 overall |
| Route Win Rate | 52.5 percent | — | No. 9 overall |
| Routes vs Coverage | 112 | 216 | — |
| Win Rate vs Coverage | 42.9 percent | 57.7 percent | No. 2 vs Man |
| Target Rate vs Coverage | 21.4 percent | 19.9 percent | — |
| Target Separation (yards) | 2.33 | 2.88 | — |
| Fantasy Points Per Target | 2.31 | 1.52 | — |
42.9 percent win rate vs man ranked No. 2 in the NFL among all wide receivers in 2024.
That’s not just good — it’s elite. It tells us Douglas wasn’t just winning against soft zones or blown coverages. He was creating separation and stacking corners in true 1-on-1 matchups — a trait that’s hard to find outside the top 30 WRs.
His strong 2.33 yards of separation vs man, coupled with a 2.31 fantasy points per target rate, suggests that when the ball comes his way, he produces — even without high-end volume.
This elite man-beating ability makes Douglas:
- A strong third-down option
- A high-percentage red zone route runner
- A breakout waiting to happen if his volume jumps even slightly
Every offseason, fantasy managers circle the third-year wide receivers. It’s often the year everything clicks: route refinement, offensive familiarity, and quarterback trust all come together.
In 2025, there’s no shortage of WRs entering that magic third season. But Josh Downs and DeMario Douglas rise above the rest.
- Douglas has already proven himself as a man-coverage technician and explosive separator. Now, he steps into a Josh McDaniels offense that has historically turned slot receivers into fantasy stars.
- Downs brings elite target rates, strong red zone usage, and one of the highest slot snap rates in the NFL — all while playing in a system that could funnel volume his way through Daniel Jones.
Final Take: The Clear-Cut Year 3 Wide Receiver Breakouts to Target
Both players are available in the double-digit rounds, yet both offer the kind of weekly stability and upside that could make them every-week starters, especially in PPR leagues.
While others chase names and upside based on draft pedigree, sharp managers will lock in on proven volume, elite efficiency, and opportunity.
In 2025, that path leads directly to Josh Downs and DeMario Douglas — the third-year wide receiver breakouts you need on your roster before everyone else figures it out.
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