Week 7 MNF Showdown: Bears vs Patriots

by Dookie Hogue · Betting & Props

This is the Week 7 MNF Showdown between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots! The Patriots will host the Bears for Monday Night’s game in Foxborough. Mac Jones (ankle) looks ready to make his return after logging back-to-back limited practices to close the week. Damien Harris is also expected to return from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last week’s game. The game’s sleepy 39.5 implied game total is the No. 3 lowest on Week 7’s slate of games, so I’m treading lightly on player props outside of touchdown bets. Without further ado, let’s find our edge for Week 7’s Monday Night Showdown!

Bears vs Patriots Odds:
Patriots -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under 39.5 (-110)
Moneyline Patriots -405/Bears +320

The Bears

Justin Field‘s rushing floor has helped counter his struggles in the passing game. @JoshADHD’s Usage App ranks Fields No. 1 in Scrambles (32) and Scramble Yards (261). This particular metric measures any rush that wasn’t designed as such. Although the Patriots have allowed the No. 12 most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks (20 per game average), expect Bill Bellichick to focus on containing Fields. Fields has just one game with 200+ Passing Yards this season.

Rushing and Receiving

David Montgomery is a low-floor RB3 in this difficult matchup against the Pats. Montgomery leads the team in running back Snap Share (63-percent), Targets (11) and Opportunity Share (56-percent). He’s the only Bears running back on my radar but has logged three games under nine PPR Points. Khalil Herbert is a mere fantasy stash although he’s looked good when given the opportunity. The Patriots’ stout rush defense has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season, and I don’t see that changing this week.

The Bears receivers are borderline waiver wire fodder at this point. Darnell Mooney is the top option though with all things considered. Mooney leads the team in both Targets (5.5 per game average) and Air Yards (78.5 per game average). Mooney is better left on the bench though, unless you’re in a deep-league bye week pinch or flexing him in a one-game DFS contest. Dante Pettis is the only other Bears’ receiver to see more than four Targets in a single game this season. I’m happy to fade this crew or bet their unders.

The Patriots

Mac Jones enters Week 7 with a questionable tag. After logging limited practices, though, he looks like he’ll return to action. Jones has recorded just one top-10 QB finish in the three games he’s played. The Bears defense is only allowing 14.3 fantasy points per game (No. 10 best) to opposing quarterbacks. If he’s healthy enough to go, he’s a low-end QB2 option as a 7.5 point home favorite.

Rhamondre Stevenson Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

The Bears pass defense has looked good on paper because their rush defense is a sieve. The Bears’ defense ranks last in the league in Rushing Attempts (157) and Rushing Yards Allowed (737). Their lofty 21.2 Fantasy Points Allowed is No. 5 worst. The only issue here is with Damien Harris‘s return that the the Patriots backfield will return to a committee with Rhamondre Stevenson. In Harris’s absence, Stevenson went off finishing as Week 6’s overall RB2. Both backs profile as quality RB2s given the Game Script. I’m giving the edge to Stevenson while Harris is eased back into the offense.

The Wideouts

In order of Targets, the pecking order has been Jakobi Meyers (31), DeVante Parker (22) and Hunter Henry (21). Meyers is the strongest option of this group as evidenced by his team-leading 24 Receptions and 321 Receiving Yards. Rookie Tyquan Thornton also deserves a mention after recording a Rushing and Receiving Touchdown in Week 6’s dismantling of the Browns. With an expected run-centric gameplan, the receivers profile more in the WR3/4 range.

Patriots Defense

The Bears have been giving to opposing D/STs, allowing top 7 performances in three of their past four games. The Patriots rank No. 10 in Sack Rate (7.3-percent) and have recorded fantasy finishes of No. 5 or better in three straight weeks. Run them as a captain in one-game DFS contests and lock them into your season-long contests. A bet I’m taking Monday is New England’s defense for an Anytime TD Scorer (+500).

Score Prediction: Patriots 31 Bears 17