Dynasty Market Movers – Report 1

by Steve Smith · Dynasty Leagues

Dynasty Market Movers is back for the 2023 NFL season. This report highlights notable risers and fallers on PlayerProfiler’s always up-to-date dynasty rankings. With this insight in mind, dynasty managers can gain a competitive edge by knowing which players to be “bearish” and “bullish” on. This is Dynasty Mark Movers Report 1!

Report 1 brings plenty of movement in the dynasty landscape as we adjust our off-season expectations. Let’s dig into the market movement for the first three weeks of the season.

Stock Trending Up

Tua Tagovailoa – QB Miami Dolphins

Through three games, the 3-0 Miami Dolphins are delivering a whopping 43.3 points per game. While scoring a record-setting 10 touchdowns in Week 3 versus the Broncos will boost that average, you want the leader of this offense in fantasy football. On the season, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,024 yards (No. 2) and eight touchdowns (No. 2) with a league-best True Passer Rating of 119.4-percent (No. 1). The result of his stellar play: 23.3 Fantasy Points Per Game (QB3).

Tagovailoa leads all NFL QBs with a Yards Per Attempt mark of 10.1 (No. 1) having connected on 46.7-percent (No. 9) of his 15 Deep Ball Attempts (No. 5). It’s no secret that injuries have been a concern for the 25-year-old. However, Tua is enjoying a Protection Rate of 87.3-percent (No. 6) on top of his commitment to an offseason martial arts training plan aimed at helping him avoid injuries. To date, he has only taken one sack. Tagovailoa’s dynasty stock gains 44.16 Lifetime Value points and eight spots to vault to QB9. Buy into this explosive Miami offense where possible.

Kyren Williams – RB Los Angeles Rams

As a fifth-round selection out of Notre Dame, many fantasy gamers didn’t expect much from Kyren Williams. It’s not surprising based on his workout metrics. He runs a 31st-percentile (4.65) 40-yard dash, has 21st-percentile burst (112.4 burst score), and average agility (51st-percentile; 11.40).  Here’s the caveat..opportunity matters in fantasy football, and Williams has owned the Rams backfield.

The sophomore RB has seen a 90.1-percent Snap Share (No.1) and 71.6-percent Opportunity Share. This has translated into 142 yards (No. 22) on 39 carries (No. 20) and 77 yards (No. 7) on 19 Targets (No. 19). Add four total touchdowns (No. 2) and that’s good for 18.0 Fantasy Points Per Game (RB10). His dynasty stock gains 48.50 Lifetime Value points to skyrocket 49 spots to RB31. Contenders should continue to ride the hot hand. Pretenders may want to explore a sell-high opportunity.

Zay Flowers – WR Baltimore Ravens

Zay Flowers‘ rookie campaign is off to a solid start. After three games played, he has 21 receptions (No. 10) on 25 Targets (No. 19) for 188 yards (No. 26). Dynamic with the ball in his hands, Flowers has gained 102 Yards After Catch (No. 14) with a 24.0-percent Juke Rate (No. 4).

Flowers currently leads the Ravens in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He has earned a healthy 29.8-percent Target Share (No. 14), which has produced 13.8 Fantasy Points Per Game (WR30). The 23-year-old wideout from Boston College gains 37.93 Lifetime Value points to climb 14 spots to WR14. He’s just getting started.

Sam LaPorta – TE Detriot Lions

Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has had an impressive transition to the NFL. He is the TE3 (14.2 fantasy points) on a points-per-game basis through three weeks posting a TE8 or better performance in each game. In fact, LaPorta earned the TE1 overall honor (22.4 fantasy points) in Week 3 versus the Atlanta Falcons.

The rookie tight end is being deployed on 80.5-percent of snaps, earning a 22.9-percent (No.2) Target Share in the Lions’ ascending offense. On the season, he has 18 catches (No. 2) for 186 yards (No. 1) and a touchdown. The Iowa product has 76 Yards After Catch (No. 3). Gaining a position-best 50.59 Lifetime Value and five spots, LaPorta moves up to TE4 in PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings. Acquiring him in dynasty leagues won’t come cheap.

More notable players with stocks trending up:

Anthony Richardson – QB Indianapolis Colts: +22.09 Lifetime Value points and +4 spots to QB8

Brian Robinson – RB Washington Commanders: +50.14 Lifetime Value points and +18 spots to RB28

Puka Nacua – WR Los Angeles Rams: +125.27 Lifetime Value points and +72 spots to WR21

T.J. Hockenson – TE Minnesota Vikings: +22.94 Lifetime Value points and +1 spot to TE2

Stock Trending Down

Dak Prescott – QB Dallas Cowboys

Despite the Cowboys being a top 5 team in NFL scoring, Dak Prescott has had a rather pedestrian start to the 2023 fantasy campaign. Through three weeks, the 30-year-old is averaging just 13.8 Fantasy Points Per Game (QB26) with his best performance coming in Week 2 versus the Jets (19.6 fantasy points, QB17).

Prescott’s Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AYA) mark, which factors out six Dropped Passes (No. 4), is just 6.3 (No. 15). He has thrown only three touchdowns (No. 17) and just 647 yards (No. 19) on the season. While better performances for Dak and the Cowboys are in store, don’t count on them over the next two games. Dallas faces the Patriots in Week 4 followed by San Francisco in Week 5. Dak has a serviceable floor but lacks upside until we see the Cowboys passing game open up. He loses 13.47 Lifetime Value points and slipped to two spots to QB12.

Najee Harris – RB Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers run game isn’t working. On top of that, Najee Harris is sharing the backfield with Jaylen Warren. Through three games, Harris has seen a 52.9-percent Snap Share (No.25). He has just six (No. 36) targets. Thus far, the 25-year-old has been basically un-startable in fantasy leagues (RB51, 5.7 Fantasy Points Per Game).

Najee Harris Game Log – Weeks 1-3, 2023

Pittsburgh has faced one of the highest stacked box rates in the NFL this season (7.2 Average Defenders In The Box, No. 2). The team is running just 20.7 (No. 29) Run Plays Per Game with a weak Run Blocking Rating of -16.7 (No. 53). Despite this, Harris has respectable efficiency metrics (we won’t mention that Warren’s are better). He has a Juke Rate of 23.7-percent (No. 14), an 11.4-percent Breakaway Run Rate (No. 2), and 3.29 Yard Created Per Touch (No. 23). A former 24th overall pick, Harris drops 47.27 Lifetime Value points and seven spots to RB21. Factoring age and the offensive woes, look to sell after a strong game or two.

Jahan Dotson – WR Washington Commanders

Second-year breakout candidate, Jahan Dotson is off to a slow start this season. Over three contests, he has 10 receptions on 16 targets for 118 scoreless yards (No. 75). He has seen an 88.8-percent Snap Share (No.18) with 114 Routes Run  (No. 11). Doston has taken 84 snaps out of the slot (No. 9).

The Washington offense hasn’t gotten off to a blistering start this season either. They rank No. 25 in the NFL in passing yards per game. Sam Howell has struggled, leading all QBs in both Danger Plays and Interceptable Passes. This has resulted in a Catchable Target Rate of 62.5-percent (No. 81) for Dotson. He loses 43.99 Lifetime Value points and 14 spots to WR41. We can’t pin all of this lack of production on Dotson. It’s wise to hold him for now.

Trey McBride – TE Arizona Cardinals

Trey McBride was selected at 55th overall in the 2022 NFL draft making him the first tight end off the board. Sharing TE duties with the fast-healing veteran Zach Ertz has put the sophomore’s breakout on pause for the time being. McBride is seeing 46.5-percent of snaps with a low 7.9-percent Target Share. On the other hand, Ertz is averaging a 67.6-percent Snap Share (No.1) with a Target Share of 25.0-percent (No. 1).

Trey McBridge Metrics Profile

On the season, McBride has just five catches (No. 37) for 57 yards (No. 34). He is producing 3.6 Fantasy Points Per Game (No. 46). Losing 16.53 Lifetime Value and eight spots, McBride falls to TE26 in PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings. He looks the part of a good bench or taxi squad stash for rebuilding dynasty teams to acquire.

More notable players with stocks trending down:

Justin Fields – QB Chicago Bears: -30.93 Lifetime Value points and -6 spots to QB14

Dalvin Cook – RB New York Jets: -50.81 Lifetime Value points and -14 spots to RB41

Treylon Burks – WR Tennessee Titans: -44.94 Lifetime Value points and -20 spots to WR50

Michael Mayer – TE Las Vegas Raiders: -12.05 Lifetime Value points and -3 spots to TE14

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