The Biggest Week 4 Fantasy Busts and Who to Trust Going Forward

by Granola Jeremy ·

Tom Brady disappeared in Week 4. The Buffalo Bills made him look every part of 42 years old. Is this a sign of things to come or just an outlier game? Four weeks into the NFL season, trends are appearing. Should we fade these busts for good, steal them from opponents or play them for bounce-back weeks? With the advanced stats and metrics on, it’s easy to understand how to view these Week 4 fantasy busts.


Tom Brady (3.7 points, QB27)

Of all quarterbacks that played an entire game, Tom Brady was the lowest-scorer in Week 5. The Buffalo Bills, in an impressive effort, held him to 150 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception.

This season, Brady is middle-of-the-pack in advanced metrics with the exception of:

  • 23 (No. 4) Red Zone Attempts
  • 2 (No. 32) Interceptable Passes
  • 3 (No. 31) Danger Plays
  • 50-percent (No. 5) Deep Ball Completion Percentage
  • 2.36 (No. 1) Receiver Target Separation

Against a Washington team that allowed the dreadful Mitchell Trubisky to pass for three touchdowns in Week 3, Brady won’t repeat last week’s disaster.

Dak Prescott (7.6 points, QB25)

Going into New Orleans to play in the Superdome, Dak Prescott was ranked as a top-five quarterback by most. Instead the Saints held him without a touchdown, while also intercepting his last-ditch Hail Mary pass.

It’s important to keep in mind how excellent Prescott’s advanced metrics are this season:

  • +45.7 (No. 1) Production Premium
  • 0.64 (No. 1) Fantasy Points Per Dropback
  • 116.1 (No. 4) True Passer Rating
  • 80-percent (No. 2) True Completion Percentage

However, he faces a difficult Packers secondary in Week 5 and everyone should approach with caution.

Patrick Mahomes (18 points, QB11)

Okay, he’s not a huge bust. Patrick Mahomes still put up 315 passing yards and 54 rushing yards.

Despite disappointing fantasy gamers in his first ever dome game, it’s impossible to fade Mahomes in any type of league.

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham (4 points, WR71)

Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham were supposed to light the turf on fire in 2019, but they simply cannot connect. Beckham is seventh in wide receiver targets and Target Share, but 20th in Fantasy Points Per Game.

Beckham’s -7.0 (No. 51 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium and -12.5-percent (No. 63) Target Premium are also alarming. Regardless, he is still a hold or buy based off of his current volume and career production:

JuJu Smith-Schuster (4.5 points, WR66)

Against Cincinnati, JuJu Smith-Schuster ran only 21 routes and caught three of four targets for 15 yards. Outside of his first NFL game, 15 receiving yards is Smith-Schuster’s career low.

Check out JuJu Smith-Schuster on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Without Ben Roethlisberger to throw him the ball, Smith-Schuster is outside the top-30 in Targets, Target Share, Receptions, Completed Air Yards, Production Premium and Target Accuracy. The departures of Antonio Brown and Big Ben keep Smith-Schuster as a WR3.

DeAndre Hopkins (7.1 points, WR52)

Outside of Week 1, DeAndre Hopkins‘ best performance is 12.7 (WR38) fantasy points. He’s top ten in Targets, Target Share and Receptions, but 26th in Fantasy Points Per Game.

Similar to Odell Beckham, this is a buying window for Hopkins. Trade for him based on his decorated past and 29-percent (No. 4) Target Share.

Running Back

Marlon Mack (3.9 points, RB53)

Yes Marlon Mack was injured during the game, but his departure was in the fourth quarter of play.

Up until that point, Mack carried the ball 11 times for 39 scoreless yards. If his ankle injury keeps him out of Week 5, Nyheim Hines is a must-start against the high-scoring Kansas City Chiefs.

Melvin Gordon (0 points)

Melvin Gordon made his return to NFL football in Week 4 against the hapless Miami Dolphins. With Justin Jackson in a boot, many thought Gordon would see some easy work.

Alas, Gordon saw zero snaps, while Troymaine Pope received 28. As if that wasn’t already bad, Austin Ekeler once again showed why he is the better running back: 18 carries, 5 receptions, 122 yards and two touchdowns. Buy Ekeler before Gordon gets injured or is usurped.

Sony Michel (6.3 points, RB 44)

Somehow, the analytically-forward Patriots organization, continues to give Sony Michel touches. On 17 carries, three of which came in the red zone, Michel came away with 63 yards.

Michel is tenth in Carries, fourth in Red Zone Touches and first in Game Script. He’s outside the top 50 in True Yards Per Carry, Production Premium, Yards Created Per Carry, Fantasy Points Per Game¬†and Fantasy Points Per Opportunity.

Sell the inefficient Michel and pick up Rex Burkhead and Damien Harris before it’s too late.

Tight End

Greg Olsen (2.5 points, TE42)

After back-to-back top-five performances in the previous two games, Greg Olsen put up a dud in Week 4. Four targets, two receptions and just five yards.

However, Olsen sports a +23.0-percent (No. 5) Target Premium and a 35.6-percent (No. 2) Dominator Rating. He’s also fourth in Route Participation and has a good bounce-back opportunity against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Delanie Walker (1.4 points, TE53)

On a day where Marcus Mariota actually performed, Delanie Walker failed to produce. He only earned two targets, catching one for four yards.

A.J. Brown and Corey Davis each turned in top-10 fantasy performances, while Jonnu Smith stayed in for run-blocking in the second half. Considering Davis and Brown go up against Player Profiler’s No. 26 and No. 38 cornerbacks, Walker should retain his top-10 Target Share.