Stefon Diggs Trade – Houston Texans Prepare for Launch

by Joel Ybarra · Analytics & Advanced Metrics
Stefon Diggs trade

PlayerProfiler is home to award winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out. Below, Joel Ybarra details the Houston Texans’ offseason moves, including the Stefon Diggs trade. An ascending Texans offense means dynasty values are moving. Find out which fantasy assets are buys, sells and holds. 

Quick Contenders

The folks who developed the S2 Test should design a new tool that measures what C.J. Stroud does on the field and use it to assess other QBs. Stroud had one of the best rookie QB seasons on record. The DeMeco Ryans-led Texans are now instant contenders in the AFC. Stroud helmed one of the best passing offenses in the NFL. The Texans pass catchers were No. 3 in WR+TE scoring with what was considered, coming into the season, a mid-level receiving corps. Nico Collins and Tank Dell are now two sought-after dynasty assets, if only because they are tied to Stroud.

The Texans wasted no time tooling up this offseason. They signed Joe Mixon, re-signed Dalton Schultz, and now traded a second-round pick to the Bills for Stefon Diggs plus a fifth and a sixth. It’s a microwaved Super Bowl window for the Texans, but they have all the right pieces in place. The most important one is a QB who can sustain a high yield passing offense. That makes the Texans one of the most interesting offenses of 2024. Below we break down the Houston offense, their fantasy potential, and what to do with each of the assets in dynasty.

C.J. Stroud

Bobby Slowik wasted no time placing the offense in the hands of the rookie QB. Stroud threw 44 and 47 pass attempts his first two NFL starts. The pass attempts slowed as the season wore on, but Stroud still made 34.8 (No. 12) pass attempts per game on the season. And he was airing it out deep. He was No. 8 in Air Yards with 4,493 and No. 2 in Adjusted Yards Per Attempt at 8.1.

As mentioned above, Stroud was No. 3 to only Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott in feeding his pass catchers fantasy points. It is just one season, but Stroud has exceptional command of the field and the offense already. He was also the facilitator of three 900-plus yard seasons for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave at Ohio State in 2021. Yes, that was an all-star receiving corps, but Stroud is the common thread facilitating that Ohio State offense and now an NFL offense. That trio of former Buckeye receivers all moved on to worse QBs, and their production slowed. Meanwhile, Stroud made a less talented group of Collins, Dell, and Schultz extremely fantasy relevant. The addition of Diggs makes an elite pass-catching unit. It looks like the Texans are going to keep leaning into Stroud’s prowess as a passer and field one of the highest-flying passing units in the NFL.

Despite him being able to facilitate premium production for his weapons, Stroud himself is a sell in dynasty. His value is screaming – right behind Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, per fantasycalc. If you can get a piece on top of Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert, you should. Stroud was the QB7 in PPG last season, and he will likely hover in the low-end QB1 range since he does not earn a lot of fantasy production with his legs.

The Weapons

Nico Collins

Collins earned 3.24 Yards Per Route Run (No. 2) in 2023, besting his 1.77 (No. 87) mark from 2022. He is not an elite separator (40.4-percent Route Win Rate, No. 96 in 2023), further cementing the idea that Stroud is the difference-maker. (Collins was the recipient of Davis Mills passes in 2023.) The fourth-year receiver is a hold in dynasty. It is not likely he will repeat his top-10 (No. 7) PPG finish from 2023, especially with added target competition.

The added competition is exactly the reason to hold, though. Collins’ stock is down with the Texans adding Diggs. Collins will certainly have some boom weeks in 2023 while defensive backs are preoccupied with Diggs and Dell. If you have to move on from Collins, wait until he hits some ceiling games and sell to a rebuilding team. If the Texans don’t franchise tag or extend Collins, it is likely he returns to mid-level production.

Tank Dell

Despite reports that Dell is an elite route runner, he posted just a 40.5-percent (No. 95) Route Win Rate, on par with Collins. Dell still posted a solid 2.36 (No. 14) YPRR figure due to Stroud finding him deep (Dell had a 14.3 ADOT, No. 12). We can expect more of the same in 2024 as Collins, Diggs, and Schultz occupy the short and intermediate areas of the field. Dell is a buy in dynasty. He is entering his second season and will be tied to Stroud for three more years during their rookie contracts. If you can buy him for a second-round pick based on the Diggs acquisition, it’s a smash.

Stefon Diggs

Diggs’ contract is really a one-year deal now that the Texans moved future guaranteed money to 2024. Getting the 31-year-old Diggs for a one-year push was a good move by the Texans. Diggs was performing as a top-12 wide receiver for the first part of the 2023 season, totaling at least 100 yards receiving in five of six games to start the season, and adding five touchdowns during that span. The rest of the season was a different story. Diggs did not hit the 100-yard mark the rest of the season, Week 7 through the playoffs, scoring only three touchdowns during that stretch. The body language and the rumblings betrayed what became evident – the relationships have been souring for two seasons.

That makes Diggs a buy in dynasty, especially with news of the one-year deal. Dynasty gamers get squeamish with receivers past age 30, but if things go well in Houston, Diggs could re-sign another short-term deal with the Texans (they are in a championship window) or elsewhere. For a contender, Diggs is easily worth a late second rounder.

Time to Make Some Moves

Lots of pieces moving means lots of disparity in player values. That also means dynasty gamers can get deals done. If you hold one of the Texans pass catchers, you can just enjoy an ascendant pass unit this coming season. Stroud had one of the best seasons ever by a rookie QB, and clearly has what it takes to facilitate a high-powered passing offense. This Texans offense is fueled up and ready for liftoff in 2024.

Read Joel Ybarra’s breakdown of an ascending Packers team here: Green Bay Packers Offense Ascending | Which Green Bay Receivers to Roster in 2024