PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Dan Williamson looks at seven wide receiver bargains in FFPC Best Ball Tournaments.
If you’re not playing in the FFPC’s Never Too Early Tournaments, you’re missing out on some great bargains. Whether you enjoy SuperFlex leagues or prefer to stick with traditional one-QB formats, the FFPC has something for you. Their Never-Too-Early Best Ball Tournament offers a small field experience at a $125 price point with a $40,000 top prize. For SuperFlex Fans, they have a separate tournament with a $10,000 top prize which is only $35 to enter. These early-season tournaments close on April 24, so don’t miss the boat!
We’re going to start by looking at some value plays at WR. There’s a common theme among all of the veterans highlighted here. Each of them has a path to earning enough targets to yield win rates far outstripping their ADP. We’ll also quickly spotlight some rookies who are likely to shoot up in value after the NFL draft.
One easy way to find WR value is to simply look at targets from the previous year. Over the past 10 years, there have been 147 instances of WRs earning 130+ targets. Only 3 of them scored fewer than 12 PPR points per game. In the following season, each of these WRs paced to equal or exceed this mark 80% of the time. Of course, injuries happen, so not all of them played a full slate of games. Of course, we can’t control injuries. The best we can hope is to stay on pace to put them in our lineup as often as possible.
Of course, ceiling is also extremely important to a player’s best-ball contributions. So we’ll want to see evidence that our bargain players can access at least occasional spike weeks. Make sense? Good, let’s dive in!
FFPC Best Ball Tournaments | Ridiculous WR Values
D.J. Moore (WR18 ADP)
Last season’s WR 17, D.J. Moore, is in a much better situation heading into 2025. New Head Coach Ben Johnson brings his offensive wizardry to the Bears, raising the floor for the entire offense. In free agency, the team fortified its offensive line.
This should help the offense progress well beyond last season’s avalanche of sacks allowed. Additionally, target hog Keenan Allen is no longer with the team. I expect DJ Moore to beat last season’s 140 targets with improved efficiency. Last year, Moore delivered four weeks of 20+ points to starting lineups with a solid floor of 10+ points most other weeks.
Chris Godwin (WR26)
In 2024, Chris Godwin was pacing as the WR2 overall in FFPC scoring before suffering a dislocated ankle in Week 7. He’d already exceeded 20 points three times by then. In the past four years, he’s exceeded or paced for 130+ targets per year, giving the volume we need. His injury is a concern heading into 2025, but we are getting a discount in price to compensate. The Buccaneers just signed him to a 3-year, 66M contract, proving they still see him as integral to the team.
Jerry Jeudy (WR35)
After four years in Denver, Jerry Jeudy finally delivered on his potential in Cleveland. He parlayed his career-best 140 targets into a WR11 finish despite enduring some of the NFL’s most horrific QB play. He even managed to eclipse 20 points 4 times. Heading into 2025, Jeudy again profiles as his team’s top target earner, yet he’s being drafted as a low-end WR3. We get this massive discount because of the uncertainty surrounding the QB position. Currently, Kenny Pickett is the starting QB, but the odds are strong that will change by the time the season starts. No matter who ends up throwing to Jeudy, it’s tough to see how it could get any worse than 2024.
Stefon Diggs (WR50)
Past the age apex and rehabbing a torn ACL is Stefon Diggs, a perennial WR1 before his 2024 trade to Houston. Despite ceding the captain’s chair to Nico Collins, Diggs was still on pace to be the WR18 before his injury.
Now he’s back to his familiar WR1 role on his new team, the New England Patriots, with the promising Drake Maye at QB. There is plenty of risk here, given his age and injury, but his price makes it very attractive to take on that risk. WR24 or better is within his range of outcomes, but even if he falls completely flat, a double-digit round draft pick isn’t going to kill your team.
Michael Pittman (WR52)
I’m not going to lie; Indianapolis might have the most concerning quarterback situation in the NFL, and it’s not due to uncertainty over who will start. Instead, it’s due to the certainty that either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones WILL be the starter. Neither of those an attractive option for any of the weapons in the passing game. We’re likely looking at a low-volume passing attack here, with low efficiency to boot. That said, this is exactly what we saw last year, and Michael Pittman finished as the WR42. While nobody is doing handsprings over the possibility of such a small ADP win, it’s possible that Richardson can progress as a passer. If so, this is only good news for Pittman, who has been the team’s top target over the past 4 years. He could easily rebound to being a WR2.
Keenan Allen (WR58)
Once again, uncertainty is handing us an ADP gift in Keenan Allen. At WR58, he’s practically free. He’s coming off a WR33 finish in FFPC scoring, yet he also scored 20+ points 5 times, giving him a massive impact in best ball. As a big slot, Allen is a threat to pile up PPR points with numerous catches per game. He’s a steady TD scorer as well. All we need to see is a good landing spot for him, and his price will shoot up by several rounds. Now is the time to buy while the discount is strong.
Late Round Rookies
Some of the best ADP values every year in these Never-Too-Early Tournaments are the late-round rookie wide receivers who are expected to be drafted on Day 1 or Day 2 of the NFL draft. It’s not easy to pinpoint exactly which of these players will turn a profit, leading to depressed ADPs. But it’s nearly a guarantee that at least a couple of them will provide major value during the season.
Luther Burden III, Emeka Egbuka, and Matthew Golden are all potential NFL 1st-rounders going in the WR 45-48 range in these drafts. Jayden Higgins, Tre Harris, Jaylin Noel, and Elic Ayomanor are all potential NFL 2nd rounders going in the WR 64-74 range. Spending a late-round pick on one of these players for each of your teams is a sharp move to find the hidden upside.
Conclusion
Uncertainty creates value in these early best-ball contests. As Warren Buffett preaches to investors, we should be greedy when others are fearful. It would be foolish to try to pack any roster with too many of these players due to their risk profiles. But it’s equally crazy to ignore all of them because they are too risky or are perceived as just plain unsexy picks. We are not playing for 4th place here. We want to finish 1st or 2nd in our league to advance. Sometimes, we must risk finishing 11th or 12th to do so.
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