PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Tim Talmadge looks at the four RBs to Fade (2025).
There are some controversial names on this list of fades, but keep in mind, we don’t hate the players; we hate their price. Below, I break down the reasons I am avoiding four big-name running backs at their current ADP.
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Last season, the Eagles leaned into their shiny new toy and averaged the most rushing attempts in the league. Credit to Saquon Barkley, he made the most of those opportunities- ranking top ten in both yards created and breakaway runs. That combination of workload and efficiency propelled him to the RB1 overall in fantasy points per game.
The concern for this year is regression hitting hard on those breakaway plays. Especially when we consider how much of that may have come at the end of games. Last season, Barkley led the NFL with 578 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in the fourth quarter. The Eagles also led the league in points scored per game in the fourth quarter. An odd stat when you realize the Eagles were also second in the league in point differential.
If that’s not enough, I’m also concerned Barkley could lose opportunities in the red zone. The Eagles were a top-five scoring team last season. However, the touchdowns skewed heavily towards the run game. Their percentage of passing touchdowns fell 10 percent compared to 2024, and it was already towards the bottom of the league to begin with. It’s a tough bet to expect the team’s quarterback and running back to continue to finish top two in red zone rushing attempts.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Hall has always checked the boxes we look for in terms of being a league-winning running back. 98th percentile speed, passing catching ability, and a 93rd percentile dominator rating that would suggest he could handle a bell-cow role. Yet, the Jets have always preferred to keep him in a bit of a timeshare.
Last season was the first time Breece Hall played over 70 percent of the snaps, but that could have been due to the team’s pass heaviness. The Jets ranked dead last in rushing attempts per game, and Hall led the league in route participation and routes run. While that usage is a plus for fantasy, the rushing yardage and touchdowns need to be there to get to RB1 status. Evidenced by his finishing as the RB17 in fantasy points per game.
Now the Jets have brought in a new regime, but the view on Hall seems to be the same. The reports out of camp are that the coaching staff likes the idea of using a committee, and second-year back Braelon Allen has been a standout in practice. A split in terms of snaps and touches isn’t a death knell, but it may be with the addition of Justin Fields. This sets up a potential situation where Hall loses out on high-value touches because of his running mate and his quarterback.
As a general rule, mobile quarterbacks don’t tend to check the ball down at the same rate as pure pocket passers. Even a talent like Saquon Barkley had career-low usage in the passing game playing alongside Jalen Hurts last year. The other issue with Fields is his potential usage at the goal line. In just six games for the Steelers, he had 16 carries inside the red zone- scoring five rushing touchdowns.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
Kyren Williams was a popular fade last season after the team drafted running back Blake Corum. Turned out the team drafted a clone of Williams just to have security at the position. Williams went on to stick it in his doubters’ faces by rushing for 1,200 yards. He finished as the RB10 in fantasy points per game.
The thing is, I still believe it was a good process to question a running back operating as a pure volume play. Last year, he led the league in Snap Share, Dominator Rating, and Red Zone Touches. Yet there’s a case that he didn’t deserve to get that heavy of a workload. He performed like a replacement-level player across the board in terms of efficiency. Aside from evading tackles but that could also be related to the amount of work he was given.
| True Yards Per Carry | Yards Per Touch | Juke Rate | Evaded Tackles | Explosive Rating | Breakaway Runs | Best Ball Points Added |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0 (4.1 ypc) | 4.2 | 20.3 percent | 71 (4.4 p/g) | 89.3 | 6 (1.9% rate) | 152.9 (9.56 p/g) |
| 37th | 47th | 29th | 7th | 35th | 32nd | 8th |
Now, in this year’s draft, the Rams added another player to the backfield in Jarquez Hunter. Another player who brings similarities to what they have on the depth chart. Except that Hunter brings an 80th percentile speed score to the table. That’s important because the Rams were one of the worst teams in the league at generating explosive plays. Kyren himself has a total of 15 breakaway runs over the last two seasons. For context, Chuba Hubbard had 15 last year alone in his first season as a starter for the Panthers.
My concerns over Kyren’s ability don’t mean the Rams will just stop feeding him touches. Especially after they opted to give him an extension. I raise these concerns to point out a potentially fragile situation. One that may not even be as fruitful in terms of touchdown opportunities if quarterback Matthew Stafford is forced to get surgery or is hindered by his injury.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Last season, James Cook finished as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. He beat out his expected fantasy points per game by 15 spots. With his skillset as an explosive playmaker, that seems plausible, but that’s not how he got there. It was due to scoring the second-most touchdowns in the league.
| Rushing Yards | Receiving Yards | Receptions | Total TDs | Fantasy Points Per Opportunity | Fantasy Points Per Game | Expected Fantasy Points Per Game |
| 1009 (63.1 p/g) | 258 (16.1 p/g) | 32 (2.0 p/g) | 18 (7.5 percent rate) | 1.09 | 16.7 | 13.2 (+3.47 diff) |
| 16th | 28th | 33rd | 2nd | 8th | 11th | 26th |
There’s some obvious regression that should be expected. Especially when you consider that his quarterback, Josh Allen, is also a threat in the red zone. Similar to the Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley dynamic, Allen had 12 rushing touchdowns of his own. At least in Barkley’s case, he’s an every-down player. Cook averaged roughly half the team’s snaps and was in a three-headed monster of a backfield.
Giving up early down work to Ray Davis and passing downs to Ty Johnson left Cook with the 25th highest opportunity-share in the league. To demonstrate how hard it is to make that work, Bucky Irving was top ten in nearly every efficiency metric and still only finished 19th in fantasy points per game.
While Cook fits the profile I typically look for in a running back, he’s priced up on Underdog at RB15. That seems rich when you could get potential bell-cows behind him in Kenneth Walker, James Conner, or Alvin Kamara. Even though I understand the vets aren’t as appealing a pick on paper.
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